Tuesday 30 March 2010

Dubai World Rescheduling Proposal - Just What Did the IMF Say?

Several Gulf papers have carried headlines relaying what are described as supportive IMF comments on Dubai World's proposal.


Here Gulf News says "IMF Back Dubai Debt Proposal".

In reading these headlines one might very well come away with the perception that the IMF had reviewed Dubai's rescheduling proposal and had given that proposal its imprimatur.  In effect recommending to the banks that they accept the proposal.

Is that what the IMF did?

I'm not sure that's the case.

We'll have to wait for the IMF to release its official statement. As of close Monday, I didn't find this on the IMF website.

Right now the only comprehensive quote I've seen is from the Gulf News (in the article cited above).
"Today's announcement by the Chairman of the Dubai Supreme Fiscal Committee for the restructuring of liabilities of Dubai World and Nakheel is a welcome step further in the debt restructuring process. We support the authorities intention to find a fair and equitable solution for all stakeholders," the IMF said in a statement issued on Thursday evening, a copy of which was obtained by Gulf News.

"A satisfactory conclusion of this process will pave the way for improving overall credit conditions, the investment climate, and economic activity in Dubai and the UAE in general.

"We encourage all parties to build on the momentum and work together in satisfactorily concluding Dubai World's debt restructuring."
What I see are the following:
  1. IMF praise for the Emirate's intention to find a fair solution.  As I read this, the IMF is not saying that a fair solution has been found.  Or that the proposal just made is fair.  Equally, it is not saying that a fair solution has not. Nor that the proposal is not fair.   
  2. The proposal is a step forward.  But the IMF does not say the end of the journey has been reached.
  3. A call for the parties to work together to satisfactorily conclude DW's debt restructuring.  If it's a matter of the creditors' approving the fair solution, it's unclear what DW would have to do.  Wouldn't it just sit back and tally the acceptances?  Not much work in that. 
  4. One might read the IMF statement to imply that the Emirate has made a positive step but that further negotiations on the details of the proposal are in order and both sides should work hard to craft a mutually acceptable deal. 

2 comments:

hut said...

AA,
The only difference between Gulf News and The National is that GN works hand in glove with the Dubai government, and The National with the Abi Dhabi government. There you go - that's the state of media here in the UAE. My maxim: If an article relates to government issues do not even trust the commas and full stops.

Abu 'Arqala said...

TRN

There's a delightful piece in The National today about the short lived bankers' rebellion against the DW Rescheduling proposal.

As a general observation, it's hard these days to find completely independent media where ever one looks, including SAM.