HSBC: “No Provision Relief for Kuwaiti Banks Until 2012”

AlQabas published a summary of a recent HSBC research report in its Sunday issue.

Here's a quick summary of the main points:

1. HSBC notes the dramatic growth in distressed loans at Kuwaiti banks – from 5.3% in 2008 to 9.7% in 2009. 
2. And predicts that the banks will continue to make substantial provisions this year and next only reaching a normal level of provisions in 2012. 
3. That being said, there should be a recovery in ROE for 2010.
4. Banks in Abu Dhabi and Kuwait were the worst affected among GCC banks. However, Kuwait has average provisions equal to 10% of total loans while Abu Dhabi only 4%. 
5. A concentration on loans to real estate, construction, and investment companies is responsible for the decline in the value of Kuwaiti bank assets. 
6. Real estate exposure:  Given the absence of Kuwaiti government spending on infrastructure or development projects during the boom years (2005-2008) credit was to the private sector largely to individuals and unlisted companies. The focus was on commercial, residential and investment real estate. Listed real estate companies only account for 13% of the total of such loans. 
7. Investment firm exposure:  Loans to investment companies were KD2.8 billion with KD1.2 billion to conventional firms and KD1.5 billion to "Islamic" firms.  The loans granted were largely used to fund investments in real estate and regional stock markets (thus increasing the lenders' total exposure to these sectors). 85% of investment companies' assets are in the GCC as per the IMF. Since the crisis hit, banks have seen their loan security drop by at least 50% as per HSBC's estimates, though it does note that in the absence of transparency the true impact is not known. 
8. Consumer loans:  These extensions of credit are believed to be of better quality because  they are secured by rentals and salaries. HSBC notes that most Kuwaitis are employed by the Government, the implicit presumption being that their incomes are secure.
   

There were two interesting tables accompanying the article, which I've reproduced below.

First, Kuwaiti bank exposure to real estate as a percentage of shareholders' equity.

Amounts in KD millions.

Bank	Real Estate & Construction ("REE")	Shareholders Equity	REE % of Equity
NBK	1,450	1,871	78%
CBK	733	440	167%
Burgan	976	422	232%
KFH	1,591	1,537	194%
Gulf	1,495	391	382%

Second, Kuwaiti bank exposure to investment companies.

Amounts in KD millions.

Bank	Exposure	% of Total	Shareholders' Equity	Exposure as % of Equity
Gulf	486	18%	391	80%
Burgan	190	7%	422	45%
CBK	269	10%	440	61%
NBK	216	5%	1,871	12%
KFH	944	34%	1,537	61%
Others	658	26%	----	----
Total	2,763	100%	----	----

 

From the above one can draw some conclusions on relative business models and underwriting standards.  

Of course without knowing the details of the loans and in particular the security obtained, these can be only preliminary. 


As usual, the pattern seems to be repeating itself.  One bank is distinguished by its prudence.  And some of the same names seem to be pushing the envelope. 

All in the Family: UGB to Seek Central Bank of Kuwait Permission for Additional Three Months to Buy Burgan Bank Shares

(Readers are invited to select the photo they believe 
most appropriate in the context of this news item.)

You'll recall that motivated by impeccable almost geometric logic, UGB had decided earlier that it was a wise investment indeed to acquire a large chunk of Burgan Bank's shares. (Additional posts can be accessed using the tag "UGB").

UGB had obtained Central Bank of Kuwait approval which expired  4 September. It now reportedly will seek a three month extension as we learn from Al Watan citing informed sources.

To help the two parties consummate this "marriage", KIPCO will manage the contract which could include it kindly selling some of its own shares to UGB or "collecting" shares (presumably from the market).

There are no values like family values. 

Burgan Bank 2Q10 Financials: A Closer Look

Let's take a closer look at Burgan's 2Q10 financials.  Press release here.

Income Statement

Net interest income for 1H10 at KD50 million was in line with 1H09's 48.6 million – no doubt some of the increase resulting from the consolidation of Tunis International Bank ("TIB") and Bank of Baghdad ("BoB") which BB acquired from United Gulf Bank, a related party (common KIPCO ownership). Earlier post on the asset sale here.

A similar case with Fees and Commissions: KD16.5 million in 1H10 versus KD15.9 million in 1H09.

Other Income (FX, Investment Income, Share in Associates Results, Dividends and Other) was KD17.1 million versus KD14.6 the half year earlier. As Burgan states in Note 5 referring to the acquisition of banks from UGB, "The business combination was achieved in stages. The Bank re-measured its previously held equity interest in BoB and TIB at the acquisition-date fair value and recognized a resulting gain of KD10,909 thousand , net of acquisition related expenses of KD43 thousand in the interim condensed income statement as part of "Net investment income" (note 10)."  Proving I guess, if one needed any proof, of just how wise and profitable these acquisitions were and are!

Operating Profit before provisions was KD53.8 million versus KD55.9 in 1H09.

Provisions were KD51.1 million versus KD27.8 million in 2009. 

As per Note 13, Provision for Impairment of Loans and Advances is split among BB's three LOBs as follows: 

1. Banking KD53.4 million charge 
2. Treasury and Investment Banking KD6.8 million "recovery" and 
3. International KD4.6 million charge.
   

As per BB's press release, with its specific provisions plus KD33 million of unallocated general provision, its Non Performing Loans are covered at 58%. 

Let's go back to FYE 2009 financials. At that point as per Note 5: 

1. Non Performing Loans totaled KD236.7 million.
2. KD5 million of which are "pre 1990 invasion" loans fully provided for. 
3. Specific Provisions were KD98.4 million.
4. General Provisions 80.8 million.
   

Since then it has added KD51.1 million in Specific Provisions. The language of the press release is not clear. It states that "In addition KD33 million in unallocated precautionary general provisions is available in the bank's books which resulted in a 58% provision coverage ratio". 

Either this means that only KD33 million of the KD80.8 million in General Provisions have been allocated to cover NPLs. Or that during 1H10, BB transferred some KD47.8 million in General Provisions to Specific Provisions. 

Because Burgan's regulator doesn't think this sort of information is useful it has not mandated that it be disclosed. Nor has it required the movement in the Provisions Account to be disclosed (write offs, FX movements, recoveries, etc). Apparently the KIPCO Group's legendary Shafafiyah Program doesn't call for this disclosure. Or perhaps Burgan may not deviate from the Central Bank's mandated form. Whatever the case, the lack of information affects the precision of the calculation below.

If we assume that only KD33 million of General Provisions are being counted for the 58% ratio, then Burgan's non performing loans are roughly KD314.7 million =(KD98.4 +KD51.1 +KD33)/.58. If on the other hand, Burgan made the KD47.8 million transfer from General to Specific, then NPLs are KD397.1 million. = (KD98.4 +KD47.8 +KD51.1 +KD33)/.58.

Those equate respectively to 13.3% and 16.6% of the gross Loans and Advances Portfolio (L&A as stated on the balance sheet plus the Provisions). One can assume that the 1H10 capital increase was motivated primarily by a need to shore up the Bank's defenses against troubled credits. And so these sort of levels make sense.

Balance Sheet

I didn't see any significant changes on the face of the balance sheet.

Looking at Note 3, Burgan has redirected some of its Cash and Banks from current accounts to time accounts (due within 30 days). At 1H09, the ratio of current deposits to total Cash and Banks was roughly 40%, falling to 35% at FYE09, and 19.7% at 1H10. No doubt motivated by Burgan'sTreasury's desire to wring a few more bps into interest income.

From Note 14, we see that KD168.8 million of Burgan's liquidity  (=Cash and Banks)  -- roughly 32.5% -- is placed with related parties. Sadly, it seems that United Gulf Bank has not bothered to publish the notes to either its 1Q10 or 2Q10 interim financials on its website. Without related party disclosures, it's not possible to say how much of UGB's US$401.9 million in interbanks taken at 1H10 were from related parties like Burgan. However, we do have data for FYE09 when US$333.2 (72.7%) of UGB's US$458.3 million in Due to Banks was from "Associates" (in which category Burgan should fall, though it may not be responsible for all of UGB's related party deposits. It is a big Family after all!). At FYE09 (Note 18), Burgan has KD172 million with Other Related Parties (US$602 million).

Finally from Note 13, we see that Burgan allocates its assets: KD1.1 billion to Banking KD1.4 billion to Treasury and Investment Banking and KD1.0 billion to International.

Cashflow

Operating Profit before Changes in Operating Assets and Liabilities is pretty much the same: KD46.8 million in 1H10 versus KD54.9 million the comparable period in 2009. 

Change in Operating Assets and Liabilities are a net source of funds of KD207 million in 2010 versus a rough balance in 2009 – a source of KD0.8 million. 

A substantial portion of the funds were used to acquire new subsidiaries – some KD92.7 million – which as Note 5 discloses were those involving UGB. 

During 1H10, Burgan paid down some KD72.8 million in Other Borrowed Funds, including KD48.1 million in a subordinated debt from a related party after obtaining "the approval from the regulatory authorities". (Note 14). The Bank also raised KD100.8 million in capital during the period.

After considering all the various items in cashflow, Burgan's cash decline is KD83.3  million (almost spot on equal to the payment to UGB for the acquisitions and the repayment of the related party subordinated loan).

Since AA is not only a strong believer in but also a strong supporter of Family Values, I am positive this is just a coincidence.

Burgan Bank - KD6.8 Million Loss for First Six Months 2010

Burgan announced its 1H10 results on the KSE this morning.  Arabic text below.

The headline is the loss of KD6.856 million versus a profit of KD11.748 million in 1H09.   No explanation for the loss.

A couple of other points:

1. In case you're wondering the KD100 million or so increase in Shareholders' Equity to KD531.28 million is largely accounted for by the KD100.8 million rights offering BB undertook in 2Q10.  
2. The other bit of information here is that the Central Bank approved Burgan's financials 10 August 10 - which suggests there may have been differences (perhaps "creative") between the CBK and BB over the exact income number to report.

While Burgan participates in the legendary KIPCO Group Shafafiyah program don't hold your breath waiting for a set of quarterly financials.  What you'll get instead is a two-page press release, a large portion of which is occupied by a picture of the Chairman.  By all accounts a splendid looking fellow! Or an investor presentation with a few metrics.  Apparently, the operative theory apparently being that investors in Kuwait can't deal with more than one or two facts which must be presented with lots of colors and pictures.

On that topic, since Burgan's regulator the Central Bank of Kuwait sets the financial reporting "standards" for Kuwaiti banks (I use the term "standards" because AA is always charitable), apparently a view shared by the authorities.

[9:51:28]  بلغت (خسارة) (برقان) (6.8) مليون د.ك لل6 أشهر المنتهية في30-6-10 ‏
يعلن سوق الكويت للأوراق المالية أن مجلس ادارة بنك برقان قد
اعتمد البيانات المالية المرحلية للبنك للفترات المنتهية  في 30-06-2010،
وفقا لما يلي:‏
ِ1) الفترات الحالية:‏
البند      ال3 أشهر المنتهية في 30-06-10    ال6 أشهر المنتهية في 30-06-10‏
الربح (الخسارة)(د.ك)     (8.730.000)                   (6.856.000)‏
ربحية السهم(فلس كويتي)         (7.4)                                (5.7)‏
اجمالي الموجودات المتداولة      -                          2.572.566.000‏
اجمالي الموجودات               -                         4.056.517.000‏
اجمالي المطلوبات المتداولة       -                       3.392.630.000‏
اجمالي المطلوبات                -                         3.525.269.000‏
اجمالي حقوق المساهمين          -                        531.248.000‏
علما بأن بنك الكويت المركزي قد وافق على هذه البيانات المالية بتاريخ ‏
يوم الثلاثاء  الموافق 10-08-2010.‏
بلغ اجماليى الايرادات من التعاملات مع الاطراف ذات الصلة مبلغ 4.446‏
د.ك .‏
بلغ اجمالي المصروفات من التعاملات مع الاطراف ذات الصلة مبلغ 2.756 د.ك .‏
ِ2) الفترات المقارنة:‏
البند      ال3 أشهر المنتهية في 30-06-09    ال6 أشهر المنتهية في 30-06-09‏
الربح(د.ك)               760.000                       11.748.000‏
ربحية السهم(فلس كويتي)     0.7                                      10.9‏
اجمالي الموجودات المتداولة     -                            2.056.457.000‏
اجمالي الموجودات              -                           4.141.082.000‏
اجمالي المطلوبات المتداولة     -                           2.566.220.000‏
اجمالي المطلوبات              -                            3.713.497.000‏
اجمالي حقوق المساهمين       -                            427.585.000‏

UGB to Purchase Burgan Bank Shares at KD0.390?

Citing informed sources, Jamal Ramadan over at AlWatan reports  that UGB will purchase the additional 13% of Burgan shares using an auction mechanism.  The contemplated starting bid is reported to be KD0.390 per share. 

Three separate tranches are envisioned.  The first two for 5% each and the third for 3%.

I'd like to note the following which I hope will put the purchase into perspective:

1. BB last traded at KD0.390 or higher on 24 March 2010.
2. During April this year BB offered new shares amounting to a 35.47% increase in capital at KD0.280 fils per share.
3. The KD0.390 starting auction price is a 16% premium over 18 July's close.
4. An auction process where the buyer's starting bid is KD0.390 is likely to result in a higher price.  

If successful, the auction will lift BB's share price having a favorable impact on its collateral value and allowing selling shareholders to cash out at a nice profit.  Particularly those who bought shares at KD0.280 in April.  

Over the past three or so months the KSE  Index has, if I'm not mistaken shed some  1,000 points.  This sale marks a truly unique value creation event.

KIPCO Clarifies UGB Purchase of Burgan Bank Shares

Responding to an article in the local press about UGB's potential purchase of Burgan Bank shares, KIPCO kindly set the record straight this morning with an announcement of its own on the KSE.  (Text below.  As always Arabic only).

KIPCO noted that:

1. While UGB had authority to buy up to 20% of BB, the Company was only intending to sell 13% of its BB shares.
2. No profit would be recognized on this transaction.  See below.
3. That it owns 96% of UGB.   

As regards point #2, this makes perfect sense.  No doubt UGB is buying shares at market.  Any profit at the parent only KIPCO level will be eliminated on the consolidation of UGB into KIPCO.'s financials  However, at the individual company level, UGB  has already recognized the profit on the sale of Tunis International Bank to Burgan in the earlier round of "musical assets".  The investment in Burgan is, as we noted earlier, part of recurring pattern of "astute business" of re-investing the proceeds of inter Group asset sales back into  Group companies.  "All in the Family" as they say.

The KSE and BSE might want to look over their respective  list of major shareholders in UGB and revise.  KSE here.  BSE here.   Perhaps, the music is a bit too up tempo to keep up with.

 

 [13:29:6]  ِ.

ايضاح من (مشاريع) بخصوص ما نشر فى احدى الصحف المحلية ‏
يعلن سوق الكويت للاوراق المالية بان شركة مشاريع الكويت القابضة (مشاريع)‏
تود ان توضح بخصوص ما نشر فى احدى الصحف اليومية حول بيع حصة بنسبة ‏
ِ20% من بنك برقان لمصلحة بنك الخليج المتحد ، تفيد الشركة ‏تنوي بيع نسبة ‏
مقدارها 13% من رأس مال بنك برقان الى بنك الخليج المتحد ، علما بان بنك ‏
الخليج المتحد قد حصل على موافقة بنك الكويت المركزي لتملك حصة تصل ‏
الى 20% من رأس مال بنك برقان .‏
كما تفيد الشركة بان بنك الخليج المتحد هي شركة تابعة مملوكة من قبل شركة ‏
مشاريع الكويت القابضة بإجمالي نسبة 96%، وبالتالي لن ينتج عن العملية ‏
المذكورة اي ربح او خسارة .‏

All in the Family: KIPCO, Burgan, and United Gulf Bank

As you'll recall in late June, United Gulf Bank (90.7% owned by KIPCO) announced that it was selling Tunis International Bank to Burgan Bank Kuwait (55.47% owned by KIPCO and affiliates) for US$725 million.  This being part of a larger strategy by Burgan Bank to develop its international banking franchise by buying the international banking franchise of UGB.  

Prior notable steps in that process were the May 2009 successful transfer of UGB's shares in Algeria Gulf Bank and Baghdad Bank to Burgan Bank.  As per the press release, "Mr Masaud Hyatt' MD said:

“The transfer of the commercial banks has provided excellent return to our shareholders and will allow UGB to focus on its investment banking & asset management business.”

That transfer was preceded by the transfer of ownership of UGB's shares in Jordan Kuwait Bank to UGB in July 2008.  

“By transferring our investment in JKB to Burgan Bank, UGB has realized the hidden value of the asset and, by reinvesting the proceeds into Burgan Bank, UGB is acquiring a premier investment grade listed asset which will provide growth and value to our shareholders. As one of the region’s leading investment banks, it is astute business for UGB to re-invest in a business that we have helped to build.”

And, perhaps, even more "astute business" to recognize a profit on such a re-investment which some uncharitable souls out there (but definitely NOT Abu Arqala) might characterize as selling to oneself!

Today, UGB announced on the Bahrain Stock Exchange that it had secured the approval of the Central Bank of Kuwait to buy up to 20% of the shares of Burgan Bank  (over the next three months).

Do I perhaps sense another example of  "astute business"?

I'd close this post by noting that many in the West today lament the decline of the traditional family.   The adverse impact on society from the loss of family values. This is so keen a concern that in one country at least one political party has had great electoral success portraying itself as the defender of family values.  And, as some would have it, F.D. as well. 

As we now look to the The Midlde East, particularly the KIPCO Family, it's understandable that we might feel more keenly our sense of loss and perhaps frankly some envy. Here is a region and culture well known for strong family solidarity.  A place where families play an important role in the lives of individuals and society in aggregate.  My family, your family, The Family.

Kuwait 1Q10 Earnings - CBK KD1.4 Million Loss and Burgan KD1.8 Million Profit

Press releases below.

I'm guessing loan loss provisions are responsible.

CBK's press release first, then Burgan's.  For those who don't read Arabic, 1Q09 is on the left and 1Q10 on the right.  The first line is net income.    In CBK's the brackets mean they had a loss - KD1,414,000. The second earnings per share. Then total current assets.  Then total assets.  Then current liabilities.  Then total liabilities.  And finally shareholders' equity.  

Then there's a sentence that tells when the Central Bank of Kuwait "approved" the bank's financial report.  In both cases 11 May.  So fairly prompt disclosure by the bank thereafter.

The last bit is disclosure on related party transactions. First revenue and then expenses.

[13:39:17]  بلغت (خسارة) (تجاري) (1.4) مليون د.ك لل3 أشهر المنتهية في31-03-2010‏
يعلن سوق الكويت للأوراق المالية أن مجلس ادارة البنك التجاري الكويتي
ِ(تجاري) قد اعتمد البيانات المالية المرحلية للبنك للفترات المنتهية ‏
في 31-03-2010 وفقا لما يلي:‏
ِ1) الفترات الحالية:‏
البند      ال3 أشهر المنتهية في 31-03-10    ال3 أشهر المنتهية في 31-03-09‏
الربح (الخسارة) (د.ك)            (1.414.000)                 3.139.000‏
ربحية السهم(فلس كويتي)           (1.1)                                2.6‏
اجمالي الموجودات المتداولة     2.888.791.000            3.323.149.000‏
اجمالي الموجودات           3.652.804.000              4.038.104.000‏
اجمالي المطلوبات المتداولة    3.185.980.000             3.543.040.000‏
اجمالي المطلوبات            3.210.609.000                3.586.829.000‏
اجمالي حقوق المساهمين       442.195.000              451.275.000‏
علما بأن بنك الكويت المركزي قد وافق على هذه البيانات المالية بتاريخ ‏
اليوم الاحد الموافق 11-05-2010.‏
بلغ اجمالى الايرادات من التعاملات مع الاطراف ذات الصلة مبلغ 737 الف د.ك
بلغ اجمالي المصروفات من التعاملات مع الاطراف ذات الصلة مبلغ (20)الف د.ك .‏

[14:20:44]  بلغ ربح (برقان) 1.8 مليون د.ك لل3 أشهر المنتهية في31-03-2010‏
يعلن سوق الكويت للأوراق المالية أن مجلس ادارة بنك برقان (برقان)‏
قداعتمد البيانات المالية المرحلية للبنك للفترات المنتهية  في 31-03-2010 ،
وفقا لما يلي:‏
ِ1) الفترات الحالية:‏
البند      ال3 أشهر المنتهية في 31-03-10    ال3 أشهر المنتهية في 31-03-09‏
الربح(د.ك)                 1.874.000                      10.988.000‏
ربحية السهم(فلس كويتي)       1.9                                10.9‏
اجمالي الموجودات المتداولة     2.743.779.000            3.017.318.000‏
اجمالي الموجودات           4.139.624.000              4.303.350.000‏
اجمالي المطلوبات المتداولة    3.522.748.000             3.557.177.000‏
اجمالي المطلوبات            3.692.878.000                3.895.370.000‏
اجمالي حقوق المساهمين       446.746.000              407.980.000‏
علما بأن بنك الكويت المركزي قد وافق على هذه البيانات المالية بتاريخ ‏
اليوم الثلاثاء الموافق 11-05-2010.‏
بلغ اجمالى الايرادات من التعاملات مع الاطراف ذات الصلة مبلغ 2.074.000 د.ك
بلغ اجمالي المصروفات من التعاملات مع الاطراف ذات الصلة مبلغ 850.000 د.ك .‏

 

Burgan Bank Capital Increase

Here's the straight story on Burgan's capital increase regarding the remaining 15% not placed earlier.

Existing shareholders were given the right to subscribe between 13 April and 27 April.

The general public can subscribe for any remaining shares 2 May through 15 June.

And here's a link to a BB Investor Presentation on itself and its strategy.

Kuwaiti Banks to Sue Saad and AlGosaibi This May

Following up on an earlier story, AlQabas reports that the lawyers for four local banks (named earlier as Kuwait Finance House. Commercial Bank of Kuwait, Gulf Bank and Burgan Bank) are putting the finishing touches on the "files" (cases) which will be filed in London and Riyadh.  Apparently, some of the loans (which are described as being no less than US$1.5 billion) are subject to Saudi law!

According to the article, the motive for pursuing the cases in Court is that negotiations weren't fruitful.

The article also mentions the ongoing suit by AlAhli Bank of Kuwait against Saad in the New York Supreme Court.

Burgan Bank Takes Majority Control of Bank of Bagdhdad

Burgan announced on the Kuwait Stock Exchange today that it had bought another 5.3% of Bank of Baghdad taking its total shareholding to 50.6%.  The new shares were acquired for US$10.7 million, thus valuing its investment at US$102.2 million.   Consolidation of results will begin with 1Q2010.

Burgan earlier acquired Baghdad Bank along with Algeria Gulf Bank, Jordan Kuwait Bank and Tunis International Bank from United Gulf Bank.  The deal was announced in May 2008.  Both UGB and Burgan are majority owned by KIPCO Kuwait and occasionally conduct transactions with one another.   The sales were concluded in stages - bank by bank - during 2008 and 2009.

Yes, United Gulf Bank declared a profit on the sale of the four banks to its affiliate company.

And, no, neither UGB or Burgan operate according to "Shari'ah" principles.

[8:51:41]  ِ.بنك برقان يزيد ملكيته فى اسهم بنك بغداد ليصبح شركة تابعة ‏
يعلن سوق الكويت للاوراق المالية بان بنك برقان افاد بانه قد اتم الاستحواذ ‏
على نسبة اضافية تبلغ 5,3% من اسهم بنك بغداد بقيمة 10,700,000 دولار مما ‏
يجعل البنك شركة تابعة لبنك برقان بنسبة ملكية تبلغ 50,6% ،وعليه فسوف ‏
يتم تجميع نتائج اعمال بنك بغداد ضمن البيانات المالية للبنك ابتداء من ‏
بيانات الربع الاول لعام 2010 .‏