And Sometimes It's High as Well |
On
29 December 2019 GFH’s shareholders approved GFH issuing up to a
USD 500 million sukuk through an SPV in one or more tranches.
On
22
January 2020—less
than one month later—GFH announced that it had “successfully
priced” a USD 300 million 5 year sukuk.
Strangely,
GFH didn’t disclose what the successful price was.
An inadvertent lapse in " شفافية "? Modesty
or something to hide?
AA
will tell you later as I want to let GFH have the first change to
explain its success.
GFH’s
press release outlined several key takeaways. Italics
are AA’s.
This
is a landmark
transaction for GFH, placing it in the international debt capital
market.
The
successful
issuance was supported by a ‘B’ rating
from each of S&P and Fitch with strong demand from international
investors reflecting market
confidence in GFH and its subsidiaries (the Group) and recognition of
its healthy financial position, sound strategy and business
model.
The
order-book for the Certificates was oversubscribed
2.5 times
exceeding US$750 million. The Certificates saw strong demand from
international investors who were allocated 47% of the issuance with
the additional 53% taken up by regional investors.
In
terms of the types of investors, 61% were fund managers and 39% were
financial institutions.
The
proceeds of the Certificates will be used to enhance the financial
position of the Group and to fund its next phase of growth.
GFH’s
CEO, Hisahm AL-Rayes summed it all up by saying
This is another important milestone for GFH and further recognition from the market of the success of GFH’s transformation into a sound and well diversified financial group. The strong uptake from both regional and international investors attests to the strength of our strategy, our financial health and performance and, importantly, to our future prospects as we push forward in further building our business and position as a leading regional and international investor. The proceeds of the Certificates will enable us to continue to build and deliver even greater value to our investors, shareholders and the economies in which we invest.
Italics
in above quote are AA’s and set the stage for some observations
below.
First,
the successful price was a fixed rate of 7.5% per annum.
You
can look over a list of indicative
sukuk quotes
from Emirates Islamic Bank to get an idea just how successful the
pricing was.
Perhaps,
GFH is thinking about the success of the investors? Perhaps relieved that it didn't have to pay 10%?
Of
course, the pricing looks “generous” before consideration of
credit risk. Then maybe not so rich.
It’s
unclear to AA how a low non-investment
grade
rating of B supported issuance, though it does justify the price.
Rather AA suspects that this very generous
successful price certainly drove interest and the oversubscription.
One
might speculate if at this pricing, oversubscription should have even
been higher.
In
issuing its ratings
announcement,
Fitch made the following points.
- Its rating of B/RR4 was based on GFH’s credit rating as Fitch sees GFH’s obligation under the transaction as the source of repayment.
- It has not assigned any collateral value to the Trust Assets.
- It does not express an opinion on compliance with Shari’a principles.
For
those who don’t know, a Fitch Recovery Rating of “RR4”
represent a historical average recovery 31% to 50% of principal and
related interest on securities in the “B” category. Page 24 in
Fitch’s
Ratings Definitions publication.
Be sure you read Fitch’s complete explanation of Recovery Ratings,
including limitations.
To
AA that sounds like GFH has less than a strong “financial
health”.
As
to being well diversified, perhaps GFH’s CEO is thinking about the
future.
The
Offering Circular
contains the following contrary comments.
The
Group has significant exposure to the real estate sector
(page 13)
As
at 31 December 2018 and on an original basis, 54.1 per cent. of the
Group’s total assets were concentrated on the real estate sector,
principally in the form of the development properties (which
constituted 26.4 per cent. of the Group’s total assets as at 31
December 2018), its investment properties (which constituted 10.5 per
cent. of the Group’s total assets as at 31 December 2018) and its
financing assets and assets acquired for leasing (which constituted
8.7 per cent. of the Group’s total assets as at 31 December
2018).
Real
estate concentration at KHCB.
(page 13)
In
addition, 50.5 per cent. of the Group’s commercial banking
business’ assets exposed to credit risk as at 31 December 2018 were
concentrated on the real estate and construction sectors and 93.9 per
cent. by estimated fair value of the collateral accepted by the Group
against financing assets and assets acquired for leasing including
lease rentals receivable was in the form of real estate as at 31
December 2018.
Real
estate valuation is inherently subjective and uncertain, and real
estate investments are illiquid (page
9)
Real
estate assets are inherently difficult to value. As a result,
valuations are subject to substantial uncertainty and subjective
judgments and are made on the basis of assumptions which may not be
correct.
Temporary
forbearance from CBB regulations (page
16)
- The Group currently benefits from a CBB exemption that permits it to exclude the assets acquired through litigation settlements and by way of a share swap from the CBB’s large exposure and connected counterparty limits. This exemption is re-assessed by the CBB on an annual basis. If the CBB decides to no longer grant the exemption, this will negatively impact the Group’s capital adequacy ratio which may lead to non-compliance with regulatory requirements and result in the Group becoming subject to potential enforcement measures and/or significant penalties.
- The Group also has an exemption from the CBB related to its exposures to certain large real estate projects which are higher than 15 per cent. of its regulatory capital. This exemption is also re-assessed by the CBB on an annual basis. If the CBB decides to no longer grant the exemption, this could require the Group to reduce its exposure which could result in significant losses.
From
the above AA does not see a picture of strong financial health or the
diversification that others see.
One
further comment: Know Your Obligor
Under
certain conditions GFH is obliged to make full repayment of the
sukuk. Fitch considers GFH to be the
source
of repayment.
It’s
critical to understand exactly “who” is on the hook here.
In
an indirect way, the Offering Circular does this, but AA fears not
clear enough so investors understand.
On
page 13 the OC states:
The claims of Certificateholders against GFH will be structurally subordinated to the claims of the creditors of GFH’s investees.
What
that means then is prospective investors in the sukuk should have
looked at the financials of the parent company of the GFH Financial
Group BSC, not the consolidated financials.
Why?
The
consolidated financials reflect an accounting construct not a legal
entity.
One
signs contracts, including debt contracts, with legal entities.
One
enforces one’s contractual rights against legal entities not
accounting constructs.
Unless
GFH’s subsidiaries and investees separately legally committed
themselves under this transaction, they are not obliged to repay the
sukuk.
Therefore,
one needs to look at the parent company’s financials.
These
will look quite different than the consolidated group
financials.
For
example, all of KHCB’s assets and liabilities will not appear in
the parent only financials. They will be replaced by a single number
representing GFH’s investment in KHCB stock.
All
KHCB’s income and expenses will be not appear in the parent only
financials. In their place will be dividends received and perhaps a
change in value of the stock investment, depending on the method used
to account for KHCB.
In
this respect it’s important to understand that as a shareholder in
KHCB or any other investee, GFH is subordinate to the creditors of
the investee.
Also
that any cashflow from KHCB or another investee—which AA would
venture to claim is critical to repaying the sukuk—will come via
dividends or perhaps loans. There are various controls on the amount
of dividends an investee may pay and generally limits on intragroup
transactions. Thus, funds may not be available.
Here’s
an example using Bank
of America’s FY 2018 AR.
Compare
the Income Statement and Balance Sheet for the parent company in Note
24 with the Consolidated Income Statement and Balance Sheet.
Quite
a difference. You’ll see each of the points made above reflected
in the parent only numbers.
The
OC doesn’t contain parent only financials. Yet the parent is the
Obligor.
Why?
How could this critical piece of information be lacking?
Rather
than rely on the issuer/obligor, legal advisors, or investment banks
to ensure that this information is provided, regulators should
require that parent only summary financial information be included.