Dubai World - More Speculation on Rescheduling - 6 Years at Libor Flat

AlQabas has an article quoting informed bankers (are there any better kind?) on the latest proposal said to be "on the table" from DW:

1. 100% of principal
2. Six Years
3. Libor flat
4. Deal to be announced next week (I believe we heard that last week too.  And maybe the week before. Or the week before that one.)

AlQ then goes on to point out that if banks accept Libor flat, they will have to recognize a loss based on the difference between the interest rate on their existing loans and Libor.  And that this loss will have to be recognized in this year's financials (that assumes they agree this year).  

That's something I've noted before.  Since AlQ is agreeing with me, I'll have to note their keen acumen and clear thinking. 

While IAS #39 forces this unhappy event on the banks, one benefit is those banks who carry their DW loans at cost (e.g., "originated loans") get to use their current contractual rates as the discount rate.  These rates, granted in happier times, do not reflect the current higher margins applicable to Dubai. Those investors who carry DW as "available for sale" have to use the current market rate for DW debt which will be higher and thus their impairments will also have to be higher. 

Are there many lenders carrying DW's debt as available for sale or mark-to-market? Generally commercial banks carry loans at cost.  Depending on the investor, it may have booked the bonds at cost.  Or available for sale.  Or trading assets.  The latter two will need to be discounted using current market rates.  Ouch!  Though rates should come in a bit after the restructuring is finalized.  There's a good bit of "uncertainty" in the current margin.

One thing not mentioned by AlQ nor here at SAM earlier.  As part of the test for impairment, the banks will have to assess the likelihood of DW fulfilling its promise to pay 100% of principal. and be reasonably certain of full recovery.  If this is  doubtful, then an impairment has to be taken as well for the unrecoverable amount of principal.  

Frankly, from where I sit I think a lender to Nakheel or Limitless would be hard pressed to make such an assessment - unless of course there was adequate additional support - collateral, a government guarantee., etc.   Imagined islands in the Gulf or vast tracks of  undeveloped waterfront property onshore might pose some challenges in collateral valuation.

Finally, a flat Libor will cause some "blood in the waters" for those banks who do not borrow at Libor.  This will be buried within their net interest margin (by virtue of a higher funding cost) and so not explicitly visible as related to DW.  Smaller banks and wholesale banks are likely to suffer the most.  Those banks with large retail franchises where they are largely (but not entirely) price setters for cost of  retail deposits will be slightly better off.  Price takers won't fare as well.