Friday 30 April 2010

Kuwait International Bank - Board Resignations for Legal Reasons


Today both AlWatan and AlQabas carry a KUNA news report attributed to Shayh Muhammad AlJarrah AlSabah from 29 April.  He explained that the resignations of Fahad Al Ibrahim and Sanaa  Al Juma from the Board of KIB were purely for legal reasons.

He noted that within one month of election Board members must deposit their entire "qualifying shares" with an accredited bank.  The amount required is the lesser of 1% of the total number of shares of the firm or KD7,500 - whichever is less.

Neither Al Ibrahim nor Al Juma managed to do this and so "voluntarily and out of respect for the law" they resigned.  Shaykh Muhammad will be calling upon the "reserve directors" to serve in their place.

This is quite a remarkable story.  And I'm not sure what to make of it.  It's sort of like the old Ripley's "Believe It or Not".
  1. Did they buy the shares but the maid knocked the "post it" note  "Deposit shares before 27 April" off the talaja and they missed the deadline?
  2. Did the two newly minted directors not know of this requirement?  In which case one might ask about KIB's selection procedures for candidates.  And its post election counseling of newly elected directors.
  3. Did the two directors know but just forgot?  Again might this suggest slightly more stringent selection criteria? 
  4. Did the two directors know but after sitting in on their first board meeting, decide that even such a modest purchase was an unwise investment? 
  5. Did they want to purchase the shares but like many Kuwaitis find they are tapped out with the local bank to finance another purchase?  Perhaps, the Majlis Al Umma's unceasing efforts to relieve the personal loan burden of Kuwaiti citizens have received yet another compelling reason to go forward.
And think of the embarrassment that this notice must be causing the two directors.  I think that officially it should have been said that they wanted to spend more time with their families.  As we all know or should, one's family is quite important in Kuwait.  And then of course there's The Family which some say may be even more important in some cases.  I'm sure there's a family or a Family involved here.

Damas Lenders Extend Standstill Two Months


Damas announced on NasdaqDubai late this afternoon that a majority of its lenders had agreed to extend the standstill two months to give the company time to complete its rescheduling proposal.

29 Apr 2010 - 17:48:58

Damas International Limited (the Company) announces today that the Company has signed an extension to the standstill agreement signed with a majority of its bank lenders.

The standstill agreement which was due to expire on 30th of April 2010, has been extended for a period of two months in order to allow the Company to finalize its restructuring plan.
The Company is pleased to announce that a majority of its bank lenders have approved the extension which proves once again the confidence of the Company's bank lenders in the strength of the underlying business model of Damas, a Company spokesman stated.

I'm not sure that a standstill is really effective if only a majority of lenders have signed.  All it will take to start a panic is if one lender break ranks.

I'm also not sure that extending the standstill proves anything except the banks feel it is the best way to maximize their recovery.    As noted earlier, the UAE has fairly low scores among the GCC for recoveries in insolvency.  And judging by the last minute timing, it seems that sentiment built "slowly" to a positive response to the company's request.

Thursday 29 April 2010

Boubyan Bank - 1Q 2010 KD1.6 Million Profit


Boubyan disclosed its 1Q10 results on the KSE today (press release below).  KD1.6 million in income versus a KD11/7 million loss om 1Q09.

[9:57:0]  بلغ ربح (بنك بوبيان) 1.6 مليون د.ك لل3 أشهر المنتهية في31-03-2010‏
يعلن سوق الكويت للأوراق المالية أن مجلس ادارة بنك بوبيان (بنك بوبيان)‏
قداعتمد البيانات المالية المرحلية للبنك للفترات المنتهية  في 31-03-2010 ،
وفقا لما يلي:‏
ِ1) الفترات الحالية:‏
البند      ال3 أشهر المنتهية في 31-03-10    ال3 أشهر المنتهية في 31-03-09‏
الربح(د.ك)                 1.620.000                        (11.721.000)‏
ربحية السهم(فلس كويتي)       1.04                                  (8.42)‏
اجمالي الموجودات المتداولة     926.426.596            816.152.664‏
اجمالي الموجودات           1.132.288.218              906.293.972‏
اجمالي المطلوبات المتداولة    894.313.613           773.480.853‏
اجمالي المطلوبات            917.581.930            779.565.379‏
اجمالي حقوق المساهمين       212.745.760          124.376.425‏
علما بأن بنك الكويت المركزي قد وافق على هذه البيانات المالية بتاريخ ‏
اليوم الخميس الموافق 29-04-2010.‏
بلغ اجمالى الايرادات من التعاملات مع الاطراف ذات الصلة مبلغ 1.016.111د.ك ‏
بلغ اجمالي المصروفات من التعاملات مع الاطراف ذات الصلة مبلغ 197.024 د.ك .‏
و عليه سوف تعاد الشركة للتداول بعد عشر دقائق من نزول الاعلان .‏

Tabreed Announces "Postponement" of Extraordinary General Meeting Due to Lack of Quorum


Tabreed announced on the Dubai Stock Exchange that its recent attempt 28 April (the second one) to hold an EGM failed due to a lack of a quorum.  Next meeting will be held 5 May.

Third time lucky?

Dubai Holdings Commercial Operations Group - Delay in Financials

From today's Nasdaq Dubai.
29 Apr 2010 - 09:34:26

Dubai Holding Commercial Operations Group LLC (“DHCOG”) has extended the publication date for its 2009 consolidated financial statements by two weeks until 16 May 2010 as DHCOG has extensively realigned its operating businesses, undertaken a conservative revaluation of its real estate portfolio, and has conducted a thorough impairment testing exercise across all its projects.
These steps have resulted in a slight delay in completing the consolidation process of its financial statements.
The expressions "conservative revaluation of its real estate portfolio" and "thorough impairment testing exercise across all its projects" are unlikely to be accompanied by bumper earnings for 2009.

The Investment Dar - Creditors Press for Movement on Asset Sales


AlQabas has a report on the meeting in Dubai between TID and the Creditors' Co-ordinating Committee this Tuesday.

Here are the key points from the article.

The first topic discussed was the sale of Boubyan Bank shares where the desire is to get the best possible price.  Mike Grant, the Chief Restructuring Officer, is reported to have briefed on a meeting with National Bank of Kuwait in which they evidenced continuing interest in purchasing the shares assuming that TID and Commercial Bank can come to an agreement.  NBK is said to want to purchase at the market price.  The article then mentions that the price should be no less than KD0.600 per share.  BB has been trading at around KD0.540 to KD0.560 the past few days.  So I suppose that's not an unreasonable price. The article notes that the BB shares are outside the asset realization program under TID's restructuring so that they are not pressed to sell them.  NBK is awaiting a formal written response on the potential sale, including the proposed sales price.

The second topic has to do with the sale of assets that are subject to the restructuring.  Nothing has been done until now because of the previous legal cases which frustrated the closing of the restructuring.  Now with TID's entrance under protection from the Financial Stability Law, it's expected apparently that up to eight more months may pass before the restructuring will be finalized.  Since TID has to pay 5% of the principal amount during the first year, the lenders are encouraging the company to develop a clear asset sales plan so that it will be ready to spring into action when legal formalities are completed.  One target is to have foreign assets ready as the expectation is that these will be able to be sold quicker than Kuwaiti assets.

The Company has written expressing its commitment to move forward, but has apparently noted that there might be circumstances outside its control - a decision by the FSL Court or the Central Bank.  No doubt, this message sent more than one shiver down the creditors' spines.  And probably revived some of the previous concerns about management - the sort that motivated creditors to ask the Central  Bank to put a monitor into TID.  TID's letter in this regard has been forwarded to the Creditors' Co-Ordinating Committee's lawyers for study.

Wednesday 28 April 2010

Golden Belt Sukuk #1 - Vote for Dissolution But Delegate to Take No Action

Citicorp as Delegate for the above transaction posted a notice on the BSE today that at least 25% of certificateholders had voted to dissolve the trust.  That in effect represents a sufficient vote to accelerate the maturity of the sukuk.  That means the issuer is obligated to pay.  As a shell company with no assets, the issuer will not be able to pay.  

At that point, Saad's purchase obligation will be triggered and the debt will become a direct unsecured liability of Saad.  

However, as pointed out in my earlier post, the certificateholders have no legal access to any real assets.  The land being "rented" in this transaction remains legally registered in Mr. Al Sanea's name.  So in effect they hold an unsecured obligation.  That means they will join the ranks of other Saad unsecured creditors - a large group both in terms of numbers of creditors and amount of debt.  That will enable them to take legal action against Saad.

So no guarantee of repayment.

One wrinkle, despite the vote, the Delegate does not have to take any action until it has been indemnified to its satisfaction.  Citicorp advises in the notice that it is not so indemnified.

I suspect the issue is certficateholder agreement to defray the not inconsiderable legal expenses associated with Citicorp taking action.  The issue is one of simple maths for the investors.  Will their ultimate recovery net of legal costs be positive?

Gulf Investment International (Gulfinvest) - Central Bank Gives 3 Months to Raise New Capital

Gulfinvest  (KSE # 226) reported its 2009 earnings on the KSE this Tuesday.  It reported losses of KD42.8 million for 2009.  For 2008 it had reported losses of KD51.8 million.

As a result, its shareholders' equity is negative KD24.8 million.

As required by the Kuwait Commercial Law #15 of 1960 Article 171 when a company has accumulated losses 75% or more of its paid in capital (note this is not total shareholders' equity), the company's Board is required to call an extraordinary general meeting of shareholders so that they can decide which actions to take.  There are two options.  Commence a wind-up or rectify the solution.  The latter can be achieved in one of two ways.  One is to offset the losses against paid in capital and any reserves (share premium, mandatory and voluntary reserves but not fair value reserves).  The other is to raise new capital.  Sometimes a combination of the two is used.

Clearly, GI has more than breached this threshold as it has negative shareholders' equity.

The Central Bank of Kuwait has given GI three months to rectify its situation.  That involves not only extinquishing the accumulated losses but also restoring shareholders' equity to at least KD15 million.   Thus, GI has to raise some KD40 million in capital.

The company has advised that it has hired a financial advisor to help it work out a plan to rectify its problems. 

Solutions being explored are:
  1. Getting creditors (roughly KD50 million at 30 September 2009) to convert some of their debt to equity. 
  2. Settling debts by transferring assets to creditors.
  3. Agreeing a rescheduling with deferred principal repayments and a freezing of interest for some undisclosed period.
  4. Raising new capital via an offering.  By law existing shareholders would have first priority rights.
Looks like a tough slog.  A very tough slog.
  1. The company only has assets of KD21.9 million.    Of which only KD6.2 million are current. 
  2. Current (and total) liabilities are KD46.6 million.  What value there are in KD15.7 million of non current assets is debatable.
  3. There doesn't seem much of a franchise here to get existing shareholders to put new money at risk.  As per the info at the KSE, there do not appear to be any institutional shareholders with significant existing shareholding in GI.  The company has a major investment (for it) in Ahlia Holding Company (KSE#206) roughly 30% of AHC.  And it appears GI wrote off a substantial amount of goodwill on AHC for its FYE2009 financials.
  4. I'm doubtful that lenders can be persuaded to convert debt into equity.  From GI's 30 September 2009 financial statements, it appears that substantially all assets are already pledged as collateral to lenders.  So if they want the assets, they can foreclose on the collateral.   Taking equity seems a very hard sell.  Why take equity and the expense burden of the company when you can just strip out the (hopefully) cash generating assets and sell them immediately?  Or, if you believe in a value rebound, foreclose and then hang on to the assets for a later sale? 

Here's the KSE announcement (Arabic only).


[4/27/2010-12:29:49]  مجلس ادارة (غلف انفست) يوصي بعدم توزيع ارباح عن عام 2009‏
يعلن سوق الكويت للأوراق المالية بان مجلس ادارة الشركة الخليجية الدولية
للاستثمار (غلف انفست) قد اعتمد البيانات المالية السنوية للشركة للسنة
المالية المنتهية في 31-12-2009، وفقا لما يلي:‏
ِ1) نتائج أعمال الشركة:‏
البند             السنة المنتهية في 31-12-09   السنة المنتهية في 31-12-08‏
الربح(الخسارة) (د.ك)          (42.803.655)          (51.803.468)‏
ربحية (خسارة)السهم(فلس كويتي)  (226.80)               (271.51) ‏
اجمالي الموجودات المتداولة     6.175.257             11.075.184‏
اجمالي الموجودات              21.864.251           68.418.091‏
اجمالي المطلوبات المتداولة     46.630.201          36.217173‏
اجمالي المطلوبات               46.630.201          51.586.977‏
اجمالي حقوق المساهمين      (24.765.950)          16.831.114‏
بلغ اجمالي الايرادات من التعاملات مع الاطراف ذات الصلة مبلغ 27.449 د.ك
بلغ اجمالي المصروفات من التعاملات مع الاطراف ذات الصلة مبلغ 174.348 د.ك
علما بأن بنك الكويت المركزي قد وافق على هذه البيانات المالية بتاريخ
ِ25-04-2010.‏
كما افاد بنك الكويت المركزي انه قد تقرر منح الشركة مهلة 3شهور من تاريخة  ‏
لاتخاذ الاجراءات الازمة لتصويب اوضاعها المالية بإطفاء الخسائر المتراكمة ‏
بالكامل بالاضافة الى توفير رأس مال جديد لا يقل عن 15 مليون د.ك،
وذلك بالدعوة بصفة فورية الى عقد جمعية عامة غير عادية لاتخاذ ‏
القرارات اللازمة في هذا الخصوص اخذا في الاعتبار الوضع المالي للشركة ‏
كما في تاريخ انعقاد الجمعية العامة .‏
ِ2) التوزيعات المقترحة:‏
قرر مجلس ادارة الشركة عدم توزيع ارباح عن السنه الماليه المنتهيه
في 31-12-2009، علما بان هذه التوصية تخضع لموافقة الجمعية ‏
العموميه و الجهات المختصه .‏
علما بان تقرير مراقبي الحسابات يحتوي على الفقرة التوضيحية التالية .‏
ايضاح رقم 2.26:‏
الاستمرارية ‏
تم اعداد البيانات المالية المجمعة في بافتراض استمرار المجموعة ككيان ‏
مستمر وهذا يتطلب دعم مالي من المساهمين على الرغم من ذلك ، ‏
اذا لم تتمكن المجموعة من الاستمرار في حالتها التشغيلية في المستقبل ‏
القريب ، فقد لا تتمكن من سداد التزاماتها ضمن المسار الاعتيادي للاعمال
وبالتالي عدم امكانية استمراريتها .‏
حققت المجموعة صافي خسارة بمبلغ 42.803.655 د.ك للسنة المنتهية ‏
في 31-12-2009 وبذلك التاريخ بلغ رصيد حقوق المساهمين السالب ‏
ِ24.765.950 د.ك ، كما في 31-12-2009 بلغت الخسائر المتراكمة ‏
للمجموعة 43.840.358 د.ك والتي تمثل 226% من رأس المال.‏
نتيجة لخسارة الشركة الام لاكثر من 75% من رأس مالها ووفقا للمادة ‏
ِ171 من قانون الشركات التجارية رقم 15 لعام 1960 ، ينبغي ‏
على مجلس الادارة طلب اجتماع للجمعية العامة غير العادية لتحديد ‏
الاجراء الواجب اتخاذة بموجب القانون . بالاضافة الى ذلك فإن ‏
المجموعة قد بلغت من قبل بنك الكويت المركزي لتصحيح وضع ‏
الانخفاض في حقوق الملكية والتي هي اقل من الحد الادنى 15 مليون د.ك ‏
من اجل مواصلة نشاطها كشركة استثمارية .‏
قامت الشركة الام بتعيين مستشارا ماليا لدراسة الخيارات المتاحة للشركة الام
لاعادة هيكلة حقوق الملكية .‏
بناء على توصيات المستشار المالي ، شرعة الشركة الام في اتخاذ الترتيبات ‏
التالية لتسوية الوضع : ‏
ِ- مناقشة المقرضين الحاليين لتحويل اجزاء من القروض الى اسهم ملكية في ‏
الشركة بالاضافة الى اعادة جدولة المبالغ المتبقية من القروض لفترات مقبلة ‏
مع تجميد مدفوعات الفائدة لفترات اخرى .‏
ِ- استكشاف الخيارات لتسوية اجزاء من القروض المستحقة للبنوك عن طريق
تحويل الاصول المتوفرة لدى الشركة .‏
ِ- مناقشة المساهمين الحاليين لضخ رأس مال اضافي لاعادة تمويل حصة المجموعة ‏
في ضوء الوضع المالي الحالي .‏

Tuesday 27 April 2010

Tabreed Announces Deferrment of 19 May Payment on its 2008 Sukuk



In connection with its 1Q10 earnings release, Tabreed announced:
Following a review of alternatives with respect to the annual distribution on its convertible Ijara 08 Sukuk, Tabreed intends to defer making this payment on May 19th. Deferring the annual distribution is consistent with the objectives of the recapitalization proposal that will be decided upon by Tabreed’s shareholders and reflects the subordinated and equity-like nature of the 08 Sukuk.  Mubadala Development Company and ACWA Holdings, who together represent a majority of 08 Sukuk holders, have expressed their support for Tabreed’s decision.  Tabreed intends to propose amendments to the terms of the 08 Sukuk in due course in connection with its broader recapitalization program that Tabreed is targeting for completion in Q4 2010.
This is yet another sign of the "knock-on" effect from the slowdown in the construction/real estate sector in the UAE.  Also note that a significant portion of 1Q10 earnings are non cash items related to the Sukuk.

The Investment Dar - More on 2008 Financials: No Audit Opinion


TID released a formal announcement on the KSE today (text below, Arabic only) about its fiscal 2008 financials.

The major piece of new "news" was that TID's auditors had not given an audit opinion.  Technically, what they've done is issue a "disclaimer" stating that they were unable to obtain sufficient information in order to render an opinion.

Two reasons cited:
  1. TID's ability to function as a going concern depends on the rescheduling and it is unclear whether that will go forward.
  2. TID is engaged in a dispute over ownership of shares in a bank listed on the KSE (that's Boubyan Bank) with another Kuwaiti bank (that would be Commercial Bank of Kuwait).  TID's 2008 consolidated financials carry the BB shares at KD142 million while the value of the debt related thereto is KD75 million.   And TID's auditors have been unable to determine if an adjustment to TID's financials is warranted.  
Regarding the latter, in the worst case, if Commercial Bank of Kuwait were to be judged the owner of the BB shares, then TID would have to recognize a loss of some KD67 million (roughly one-third of its 2008 capital of KD201 million).  And of course if TID were judged to be the owner, then there would be no adjustment to its financials.
Of course 2008 is long ago and far away in terms of judging impact.  What will be critical will be the path of asset values since 31 December 2008.

Here's the KSE announcement.

[12:35:19]  ِ.مجلس ادارة (الدار) يوصي بعدم توزيع ارباح عن السنة المنتهية في 31-12-08 ‏
يعلن سوق الكويت للأوراق المالية بان شركة دار الاستثمار ‏
قد حصلت على موافقة بنك الكويت المركزي على بياناتها المالية
للسنة المالية المنتهية في 31-12-2008، بتاريخ 13-04-2010‏
وقد احيط بنك الكويت المركزي علما بمضمون البيانات المالية الختامية المجمعة
للشركة عن السنة المنتهية فى 31-12-2008 الواردة الى بنك الكويت المركزي ‏
وفق كتاب الشركة المؤرخ فى 15-03-2010 ،اخذا بالاعتبار ما ورد فى ‏
تقرير مراقبي الحسابات وكما هو مبين فى الايضاحين (2,16) من ان قدرة ‏
المجموعة على متابعة انشطتها طبقا لمبدأ الاستمرارية تتوقف على اعادة جدولة ‏
شروط التزاماتها مع الدائنين ،وكذلك ما جاء فى تقرير مراقبي الحسابات ‏
بشان "عدم القدرة على ابداء الراي" من انه نظرا لجوهرية الامور ‏
المذكورة بفقرات اساس عدم القدرة على ابداء الراي ،فانهم لا يبدون ‏
رايا على هذه البيانات المالية المجمعة .‏
وفقا لما يلي:‏
ِ1) نتائج أعمال الشركة:‏
البند             السنة المنتهية في 31-12-08   السنة المنتهية في 31-12-07‏
الربح(خسارة)(د.ك)              (80,313,260)        132,037,980 ‏
ربحية(خسارة)السهم(فلس كويتي)   (87,45)               140,58 ‏
اجمالي الموجودات المتداولة     365,796,380       659,501,254 ‏
اجمالي الموجودات              1,200,531,431    1,259,618,796 ‏
اجمالي المطلوبات المتداولة      817,461,744       644,627,427 ‏
اجمالي المطلوبات                999,118,504      871,989,478 ‏
اجمالي حقوق المساهمين         201,412,927       387,629,318 ‏
بلغ اجمالي الايرادات من التعاملات مع الاطراف ذات الصلة مبلغ 8,135,295 د.ك
بلغ اجمالي المصروفات من التعاملات مع الاطراف ذات الصلة مبلغ 4,560,000 د.ك
ِ2-التوزيعات المقترحة :‏
قرر مجلس ادارة الشركة عدم توزيع ارباح عن السنة المالية المنتهية فى ‏
فى 31-12-2008 ،علما بان هذه التوصية تخضع لموافقة الجمعية العمومية ‏
والجهات المختصة .‏
علما بان تقرير مراقب الحسابات يحتوي على اساس عدم القدرة على ابداء الراي:‏
ِ-كما هو مبين في الايضاحين (2.16) من هذه البيانات الماليه المجمعه : بتاريخ
ِ8-10-2008 تخلفت الشركة الام عن سداد تسهيلات وكاله ولاحقا توقفت عن
سداد كل الديون و الارباح المتعلقه بها المستحقه لصالح الدائنين ( البنوك و ‏
المؤسسات الماليه و اخرون ) بعد تاريخ التخلف عن السداد اعلاه : و قد أدى ‏
ذلك التخلف عن السداد الى ان اصبحت الشركة الام متخلفه عن سداد ديونها
وفقا لشروط التخلف عن السداد المنصوص عليها في اتفاقيات الديون الاخري
و بالتالي ادي ذلك الى عجز المجموعه عن الوفاء بإلتزامات ديونها بالكامل .‏
كذلك قام بعض الدائنون برفع قضايا لدى محاكم الكويت متضمنه اشهار افلاس ‏
الشركة الام للحصول على مستحقاتهم بالاضافه لذلك بلغت صافي خسائر ‏
المجموعه 80 مليون د.ك تقريبا عن السنه المنتهيه في 31-21-2008 كما توجد
مخالفه لشروط الاتفاقيات المبرمه مع الممولين مما يقتضى السداد الفورى لتلك
الالتزامات .‏
هذا و تعمل المجموعه حاليا على التفاوض مع الممولين لاعادة هيكله ديونها ,‏
و قد اصبحت قدرة المجموعه على متابعه اعمالها على اساس مبدأ الاستمراريه ‏
تستند بشكل كبير على النجاح في هذه المفاوضات . لم نتمكن من الوصول الى
أدله تدقيق موثوق فيها و كافيه لتحديد مدى قدرة المجموعه على الوصول الى ‏
اتفاق بشأن اعادة هيكلة الديون المستحقه عليها .‏
ِ- كما هو مبين في ايضاح رقم (12) من هذه البيانات الماليه المجمعة , يوجد
نزاع قضائي مع بنك محلى لإسترجاع ملكية المجموعه في بنك كويتي مدرج ‏
في سوق الكويت للأوراق الماليه و مصنف ضمن الاستثمارات في شركات
زميله بقيمة دفتريه بلغت 142 مليون د.ك تقريبا في البيانات الماليه المجمعه ‏
و قد بلغت الوكالات الدائنه المتعلقه بذلك الاستثمار بالبيانات الماليه ‏
المجمعه 75 مليون د.ك تقريبا . لم نتمكن من الحصول على ادلة تدقيق كافيه ‏
و موثوق فيها لتحديد ما اذا كانت هناك اية تسويات قد تكون ضروريه على ‏
البيانات الماليه المجمعه نتيجة لذلك .‏

The Real Nick on The Real Estate Sector in Dubai

A comment from The Real Nick to one of my posts that deserves a bit more prominent place here at this blog.

And considering my last few posts, perhaps a new feature here at SAM - informed commentary.

TRN's commentary is immediately below.

The fear of losing face seems to be stronger than reason (nothing new there..). There is no way Nakheel can resurrect the 'vision'. Even if the guy who "wrote [a poem] on water" around Palm Jebel Ali continues to wish it...It's over, and out.

The consolidation may not look brutal to you, from a distance. Here on the dusty ground, it looks scary: Thousands in the real estate and construction have lost their jobs and continue to lose. Contractors have stamina. They'll not shut up shop at the first hiccup but should be able to sustain one or two years without work. Many have done that, but the two years are over now and Abu Dhabi for one hasn't pulled the finger out. Watching AD make decisions is like watching paint dry. Only less fun.
And one has to remember that this industry accounted for way more than 30% of Dubai's economy. My boss, who's been around the Dubai construction /development business for thirty odd years, reckons that we are staring into an abyss of seven to ten lean years (supermodel style lean; anorexic style lean).
You can make this up on your fingers: Add the tidal wave of oversupply which is about to break on our real estate shores and swamp if for years, and the pre-contract (pre-construction) timeline of any new substantial projects of two/three years and then a construction period of three years. I.e to do big things you need 5/6 years and you'd be a fool do start even thinking about anything before 2012/2013 /2014...

Nakheel, khallas!

Global Investment House Strongly Denies Khalid AlWazzan Resignation

As noted by a reader in a comment to my original post, GIH has strongly denied news of Mr. AlWazzan's resignation.

Below is the announcement on the KSE.
[9:5:1]  ِ.(جلوبل) تنفي ما نشر فى احدى الصحف المحلية ‏
يعلن سوق الكويت للاوراق المالية بان شركة بيت الاستثمار العالمي ‏
ِ(جلوبل) تنفي ما نشر فى احدى الصحف المحلية حول استقالة ‏
السيد خالد الوزان من عضوية مجلس الادارة ،وتفيد الشركة بان الخبر ‏
عار عن الصحة جملة وتفصيلا .‏

Burgan Bank Capital Increase



Here's the straight story on Burgan's capital increase regarding the remaining 15% not placed earlier.

Existing shareholders were given the right to subscribe between 13 April and 27 April.
The general public can subscribe for any remaining shares 2 May through 15 June.

And here's a link to a BB Investor Presentation on itself and its strategy.

Idiocy Knows No Borders: Guide Dog Denied Access to Restaurant Due to Imagined Sexual Preference

You cannot make this stuff up.

At least I suppose an earthquake may have been avoided.

Global Investment House - Khalid AlWazzan Resigns from Board


Update 27 April: GIH denies resignation story.  New post here.

AlQabas reports that Khalid AlWazzan is resigning from Global.  He's been on the Board for at least 10 to 12 years - and Vice Chairman for at least 2 to 3.  Ostensibly, stepping down now that the ship has sailed safely through the storm. 

Anyone out there with any thoughts on the reasons for his resignation, please post a comment.

The article also notes that GIH has been negotiating with creditors to participate in its capital raising exercise through a debt conversion.

And that other changes in the Board are expected following the capital raising.  

The Board is currently rather a select group of only five:  Ms. AlGhunaim, Mr. Al Wazzan, Shaykh Abdullah J.A. AlSabah,  Mazouk N. AlKharafi, and Alan Smith (an old China hand).

Gulf Bank - 25% (?) of Loan Portfolio Doubtful


Update 27 April:  A reader has pointed out that I overlooked the collateral held by GB and outlined in Note 26 of the 2008 fiscal year end financials.  "Problem" solved.  Clearly, it really pays to read the entire financial report.

AlWatan carries remarks from Michel Accad, CEO of Gulf Bank, in which he states that 25% of GB's loan portfolio is doubtful of collection.  On the positive side GB has reserves equal to 87% of the doubtful amount.

In discussing 1Q10 results he noted the that the operating results included KD14 million from the sale of the investment portfolio, making GB's recurring earnings about KD30 million, noting that KD25 million  to KD30 million was an expected quarterly run rate.  

He also said that he anticipates that GB won't require provisioning (presumably heavy provisioning) in the second half of the year.

I must confess I don't follow the math here. 

Using 25% doubtful portfolio, GB has heavy provisioning for at least the rest of the year. Unless Michel is referring to only a part of the portfolio.  Using 87% cover also suggests that provisioning will require more than one quarter.  If we assume that devoting 2Q10's projected KD30 million brings provisions to 100%, then doubtful loans are roughly 15% to 16% of the gross portfolio.  I suppose another explanation could be that GB is not targeting 100% cover of doubtful loans.

Here's the analysis.

Since detailed information on the loan portfolio at 31 March 2010 is not available in GB's 1Q10 interims,  we'll have to use Fiscal 2009 data as our analytical starting point.  

At 31 December 2009, GB's gross loan portfolio was KD3.787 billion and Loan Loss Reserve ("LLR") KD0.522 billion.  So net loans were KD3.266 billion. 

At 31 March 2010 the net loan portfolio was KD3.163 billion.  GB added roughly KD43 million to its LLR, thus a reasonable assumptions is that the LLR at 31 March was KD0.565 billion.

If this represents 87% cover of doubtful loans, then doubtful loans are some KD0.649 billion.  However, 25% of Gross Loans (estimated as the sum of  KD3.163 billion net loans plus the LLR of KD0.565 billion) = KD0.932 billion.

Using the lower estimate of doubtful loans of KD0.649 billion, then GB is KD84 million short.  Which would seem to imply provisioning away most of the rest of the year's income using a KD25 million to KD 30 million quarterly run rate.  Obviously with the higher KD0.932 billion estimate, heavy provisions continue into next year.

If we assume one more quarter of provisioning income will do the trick, (as implied by Michel's statement) then that would take loan provisions to KD0.595 billion.  That's more like 15% to 16% doubtful loans.

Anyone out there with an explanation or comment, please post.

Monday 26 April 2010

Adeem Investment Company - The Work Goes On (and On and On)



The work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die.

Since last November.   From the time this is taking, this is indeed a monumental project.  And AIC is working quietly, I can't find a news report at all about them.

Anyone "up North" who can shed some light?

ALZumorrodah Investment: Gulf Bank and Oula Fuel



AlWatan has a report in its Monday issue about the heavy trading in Gulf Bank and Oula Fuel shares. On Sunday some 7.5 million GB shares worth roughly KD2.8 million were traded in 130 contracts while 7.2 million shares of Oula worth KD3 million in 206 contracts.

AlZumorrodah (literally Emerald) denied any connection with the deals in GB yesterday saying that it was a strategic investor in GB.  And would be asking the Central Bank next week to allow it to increase its share from 8.6% to 15%.

The company noted that it had undertaken some large trades last week between two investment groups - essentially shares in GB against Oula Fuel.  Yesterday AlZ was again trading apparently for that same group but this time selling shares in an investment company to buy shares in Oula Fuel for that group.

As per AlZ's website its main shareholders include AlZumorrodah Holding, Gulf Bank and Kamco.  Respective percentages are not disclosed.

AlZumorroda Holding discloses its shareholders as:   
  1. Dr.Maytham Mahmoud Haji Haider
  2. Mansour Mahmoud Haji Haider
  3. Murdiah Mahmoud Haji Haider
  4. Mahmoud Haji Haider Abdullah  
Neither company has current financials on its website.

Gulf Bank First Quarter Earnings - Massive Provisioning


AlQabas carries comments by Mr. Ali Rashid AlBadr, Chairman of GB in its Monday issue.

He said that 1Q10 operating profit was some KD44.3 million versus KD15.6 million in 1Q09.  This year's operating profit included KD14 million from the sale of investments.  Mr.AlBadr said that the Board decided to devote almost all of the first quarter's operating profit to strengthening the loan loss reserve to cover certain existing facilities.  Average capital adequacy is up to 17.4% from 15.9% at FYE 09.
He noted that the economy was turning and that the bank's prospects for the remainder of the year looked good.

During 2009, GB took net provisions of some KD111.1 million = KD148.7 mm specific provisions (for identified weak credits) less reversals of KD 39.6mm from general provisions and loan write offs of KD2.1 mm.  1Q10 provisions are roughly 30% of full year 2009, which suggests that GB has some provisioning catch up to do.  Perhaps, the remainder of its AlGosaibi/AlSanea exposure which the Central Bank has mandated must be provisioned at 100% by FYE 2010 as well as local Kuwaiti companies.  FYE09 LLR to Gross Loans stood at 13.8%.  So there is some real pain there.

Sunday 25 April 2010

Gulf Bank First Quarter Earnings Much Lower Than Expected



Gulf Bank announced its 1Q10 earnings on the KSE today (announcement, Arabic only, below).

Most news reports have focused on the sharp drop in net income from 1Q09:  KD524,000 for 1Q10 versus KD1,593,000 in 1Q09.  As of yet unexplained.

Quite a dramatic drop.

But, a couple things more.
  1. Even at its old 1Q09 run rate, the ROE is rather dismal. And this is perhaps the more important story than the fluctuation.  How and when does GB achieve a reasonable ROE?  I'd note that NBK (and perhaps that's an unfair comparison) has a pro-forma projected 2010 ROE of more than 10 times GB's 2009 run rate.  And 32x 2010's projected run rate.
  2. What appears not to have been noticed is that despite recording a modest profit in 1Q10, GB's shareholders' equity is down roughly KD9,977,000 from 31 December 2009.  Not a large amount as a percentage of equity, but 19x 1Q10 profit!
  
[8:45:52]  بلغ ربح (خليج ب) 524 الف د.ك لل3 أشهر المنتهية في31-03-2010‏
يعلن سوق الكويت للأوراق المالية أن مجلس ادارة بنك الخليج (خليج ب)‏
قداعتمد البيانات المالية المرحلية للبنك للفترات المنتهية  في 31-03-2010 ،
وفقا لما يلي:‏
ِ1) الفترات الحالية:‏
البند      ال3 أشهر المنتهية في 31-03-10    ال3 أشهر المنتهية في 31-03-09‏
الربح (د.ك)                      524.000                   1.593.000‏
ربحية السهم(فلس كويتي)           0                                   1‏
اجمالي الموجودات المتداولة    2.877.635.000            3.680.674.000‏
اجمالي الموجودات           4.515.779.000              5.134.144.000‏
اجمالي المطلوبات المتداولة    3.966.175.000             4.462.353.000‏
اجمالي المطلوبات            4.118.427.000              4.710.893.000‏
اجمالي حقوق المساهمين      397.352.000                  423.251.000‏
علما بأن بنك الكويت المركزي قد وافق على هذه البيانات المالية بتاريخ ‏
يوم الخميس الموافق 22-04-2010.‏
بلغ اجمالى الايرادات من التعاملات مع الاطراف ذات الصلة مبلغ 1.596.000د.ك ‏
بلغ اجمالي المصروفات من التعاملات مع الاطراف ذات الصلة مبلغ 5.007.000‏
د.ك .‏

Boubyan Bank - Time to Sell?

So say Saud and Naser at AlphaDinar.

Some very interesting implications for 
  1. TID, CBK and the creditors of TID
  2. Existing shareholders with the upcoming Rights Offering

Aref Investment Company Putting Final Touches on Restructuring Plan Lauds KFH's Help


AlWatan quotes Ibrahim AlKhazzam, Managing Director, of AIG that they are putting the final touches on their restructuring plan.  As envisioned AIG will make its first principal repayment 18 months from signing to give the company sufficient time to recover and implement its restructuring.  The plan is to restructure both liabilities and assets (AIG is a significant creditor as well as a debtor).

He noted that liabilities were only 1.9x equity - what he described as a low ratio.  Asset values were increasing.  He cited a particularly bright future for Aref Energy - with more than KD30 million in cash and no debts - ready to participate in the Government's Five Year Development Plan.

He expects to finish the restructuring in two months - noting that international consulting firms were helping in the process.

As I noted in an earlier post, KFH owns 53% of AIG and to the extent that it puts its financial and market muscle behind AIG, the company should be able to move forward.

Mr. AlKhazzam outlines in this article just how much KFH has done.  

First, there was the KD132 million loan extended so that AIG could pay off foreign creditors and investment funds - greatly reducing the complexity of negotiations by eliminating a potentially troublesome set of creditors.  And as well demonstrating a very strong vote of confidence by KFH.

What was news to me was that KFH has been not only supporting AIG but its associated companies.  Specifically named were Munshaat Real Estate Projects (25% ownership by AIG.  KSE Stock #433), Aref Energy Holding (72%, KSE #627), Sukuk Holding (49%, KSE #239).  He mentioned that KFH's 100% subsidiary Liquidity Management House was helping AIG negotiate with lenders.

Boubyan Bank to Reopen Rights Offering

AlWatan reports that BB's shareholders will be asked to approve the reopening of its partially successful Rights Offering for the roughly 15% shares that weren't placed earlier.  This at an ordinary general shareholders meeting 29 April.  The subscription period will be 2 May through 9 May for shareholders of record as of 12 January 2010.

Earlier post here.

Commercial Bank of Kuwait Weekly Board Meetings -- Priority Negotiations with Distressed Clients

AlWatan reports on the dynamic goings on of Commercial Bank of Kuwait's new board.  Almost weekly meetings to discuss and implement strategy.  A new temporary CEO, Luay Fadhil Muqamis, has been appointed.  Priority given to negotiations with distressed clients (unable to pay).

After reading this, it seemed to me as though the Chief Editor of AlWatan has a friend inside CBK. Or some other close relationship.

The Investment Dar Clears Another Hurdle in Its Restructuring


Citing a well connected but unnamed source, AlQabas reports that the Financial Stability Law Court has issued a decision halting all legal cases against TID.  As you'll recall the FSL procedure is that upon the receipt of a request from an investment company (accompanied by all necessary documents), the FSL Court issues a temporary stay and notifies creditors who have a limited time in which to submit their objections.  That step has come to an end with the Court upholding TID's entry under the FSL process.

So while as AlQabas headline says "TID Breathes a Sigh of Relief After the Freezing of Court Cases Against It".  The next step is for the Central Bank to study the proposed restructuring plan and report back to the Court on whether it supports it or not.

I think the CBK will approve the plan.  It's an important step in restoring financial stability to the country.  So if it has a reasonable chance of success, the CBK will probably approve.

As well, a decision by a Kuwaiti Court does not necessarily stay court actions in other jurisdictions unless those jurisdictions are convinced that the proceedings in Kuwait under the FSL are equivalent to their own bankruptcy/insolvency/restructuring regimes.  Again I think other jurisdictions will give Kuwait the benefit of the doubt.

AlQ notes one wrinkle and that is that ("Islamic") murabaha holders had conditioned their acceptance of the restructuring on their being given priority of payment over other creditors given the difference of their position versus other creditors.  Essentially that argument was that they had deposit or trust arrangements as discussed in an earlier post.

The article goes on to note that the recent travel disruptions in Europe had caused the postponement of Creditors Co-ordinating Committee meetings.  The CCC will meet on Monday and then with TID with on  Tuesday.  Venue Dubai.

Topics are the possibility and modality of the accommodation with Commercial Bank of Kuwait regarding the Boubyan Bank shares.  Creditors are reportedly concerned about two things.  First, that time is a factor.  A key concern is that if a fixed price contract is struck, BB shares may decline in value before implementation.  Then the parties interested in buying (note the use of the plural) will decide to pick up the shares in the market rather than pay above market.  Second, the creditors want to discuss getting their cut of the proceeds from any sale. 

Other topics are the role of the CCC in the period while the FSL process moves forward (CBK review, approval, etc). A process expected to take several months. And whether the Chief Restructuring Officer should be given additional duties for the implementation phase.

Previous posts can be accessed using the labels "The Investment Dar" and "Financial Stability Law".

Friday 23 April 2010

Aref Investment Company KD127 Million in 2009 Losses Restructuring Ahead

AlQabas reports that reported Fiscal Year 2009 losses of some KD127 million (which is roughly KD20 million more than Aref's paid in capital).

The latest financials on the KSE are 30 September 2009.  At that point it had KD57 million in losses for the year.  Adding another KD70 million takes shareholders' equity to roughly KD175 million as opposed to KD304 million at fiscal year end 2008.  There are sufficient reserves to offset the losses and thus eliminate the legal problem of retained losses exceeding a substantial amount of paid in capital.  The possibility of a capital increase is also mentioned.

More troublesome for the company is the fact that current assets are only KD41.7 million versus current liabilities of KD347.6 million.

Current management is said to be working hard to clean the books. To draw a line between the old board and the new so that responsibility can be established.

KFH is credited with helping solve the problem of foreign debts by lending KD130 million.  Local debts (before the KFH loan) were reported at some KD73 million.  It should be noted that KFH owns some 53% of Aref. 

With KFH behind it and presuming that KFH is committed to using its financial resources to help, Aref should be able to work its way through the restructuring process.

White Knight for Shabka Holding: The Saudi Investor

If you don't recall the rather sad story of Shabka Holding, here's the earlier link.

Earlier this week, Shabkha held its annual general shareholders meeting.  There were reports in several Kuwaiti papers.  Let's go to the largest circulation paper in Kuwait (and a princely one at that) for the details

The meeting proceeded with 63% of shareholders present.  Not a hard trick since Nayef Abdul Aziz Abdullah Al-Enezi, Chairman and Managing Director, holds 40.65% and Dr. Badr Abid AlThafiri, CEO holds 12%.  Both bought sometime in early 2009 if I'm not mistaken.

To get an idea of the problems that Shabka faces, let's review some details provided by AlThafiri who spoke to reporters at the meeting. 

There is an ongoing dispute with International Leasing and Investment.  Shabka has asked the Islamic Development Bank (Jeddah) which holds shares in both Shabka and International Leasing (roughly 28% in the latter!) to mediate.  

The dispute relates to related party transactions in the amount of KD22 million which are in the form of "wakala investments".  In addition to a contract to buy 7% of the shares of Athman  (Athman Investments in which I believe International Leasing was and may still be a shareholder) which led to additional losses of KD19 million.  

As a side note, you'll recall that in late March AlEnezi accused International Leasing of selling assets to Shabka at above market prices.  The sales he asserted were not ratified by the shareholders annual general meeting but approved at the board level (which IL controlled).  His assertion is that if these contracts were unwound, Shabka's losses would be KD5 million less than current.  

Back to the article, he says that current losses are some 68% of total capital as of year end 2009 and that this is an improvement from 233% as of year end 2008.  Shabka's 2009 financials aren't posted on the KSE yet.  Its 31 December 2008 financials show negative equity of KD7 million - the 233%. That would make the losses roughly KD10 million at 2009 year end.

Back to the article, during 2008, the previous shareholders increased the capital in the company from KD5 million to KD15 million (this refers to the legal capital - par value times the number of shares outstanding).  Since the shares were offered at KD0.250 per share (a KD0.150 premium per share), the gross amount of the capital increase would appear to be some KD25 million - though surprisingly elsewhere in the article AlThafiri says the the share premium account only holds KD9.93 million - leaving roughly KD5 million not accounted for.  Since Shabka has not yet published its 2008 financial report, one cannot come to a firm conclusion with what happened.  In any case, AlThafiri says that once the new board took over, they discovered the firm's assets were KD400,000.  He attributes the difference to use by some members of the previous board to acquire control over Abraj.  (AA:  This could be AlAbraj Holdings, which by the way owns 39.3% of International Leasing.)  And that there was only KD7 in Shabka's accounts.  That's not a typo.  Seven dinars.

To deal with its problems, the shareholders agreed at the AGM to:
  1. Use the KD9.93 in the Share Premium account to cover some of the losses. This and other amounts appear sufficient to cover the 2009 losses.
  2. Increase paid in capital from KD15 million to KD50 million.  No discussion of the price of the offer.  Shabka's shares have a nominal value of KD0.100.
  3. An unnamed Saudi investor is willing to step up for 70% of the capital. 
Two puzzling things from that latter point:
  1. Who the investor is?
  2. Why he is stepping up?  It's not as though Shabka has a lot to offer, except for its license.
One final point, as disclosed in its 30 June 2008 interim financials, IL bought 70% of Shabka during the first six months of 2008 for some KD32.4 million. During that same period it sold 15.1% of the company for KD23.2 million.  You can do the math.  A good return.  And I suppose a "wise" investment for someone.  And also as disclosed, was in the stages of selling the rest of its investment. Shabka traded as high as KD0.590 in the second half of 2008.  Its last trade was at KD0.044 on 31 March 2009 before it was suspended by the KSE for failure to provide financials.

Thursday 22 April 2010

New Graft Case at Nakheel

As reported by the Khaleej Times.  Some rather expensive non existent pens.

Mubadala US$2.5 Billion Refinancing

As announced yesterday, Mubadala successfully refinanced its US$2 billion loan.  Some additional details today courtesy of Gulf News.

While the margin increased from 17.5 basis points to 75, this is still a comfortable margin especially given current market conditions.  And as well the downgrade by Moodys in March to Aa3.

The facility was also well received.  US$4 billion in demand.  And it was up-sized (I just had to use that word) by US$500 million to provide a back-stop for refinancing under Mubadala's ECP program.

Dubai World Rescheduling - Nakheel Trade Creditors Offered 10% on Settlement Bonds

There's been some commentary on the princely interest rate that Nakheel was reported to be offering its trade creditors - 10% - compared to the much smaller 1% to financial creditors.

This article from Maktoob Business outlines the rationale. 

It's all a matter of devoting resources to those parties that benefit the company and the national economy the most.

Simply put there is more bang for the buck locally in paying our trade creditors.

Something discussed in an earlier post here.

Oula Fuel

 
Following up on my earlier post, I noticed that today there was an announcement on the Kuwait Stock Exchange that the Chairman and Managing Director of Oula, Mr.Ahmad Abdul Aziz Al Ghannam, had resigned.

[9:13:10]  ِ.استقالة عضو في مجلس ادارة شركة الاولى للتسويق المحلي للوقود
يعلن سوق الكويت للأوراق المالية بأن شركة الاولى للتسويق
المحلي للوقود افادته بأن مجلس ادارة الشركة وافق على استقالة ‏
كل من السادة شركة عبدالعزيز احمد الغنام واخوانه وممثلها
السيد / احمد عبدالعزيز الغنام رئيس مجلس الادارة والعضو المنتدب ‏
من عضوية مجلس ادارة الشركة.

International Investment Group Issues Clarification - It's Business As Usual

Today IIG issued a press release on the Bahrain Stock Exchange (Arabic) and NasdaqDubai (English).

The press release notes that in addition to engaging KPMG Advisory WLL IIG has hired the Law Office of AlWaqayan, AlAwadhi and AlSaif (local Kuwaiti law firm) and DLA Piper (international law firm).  It is also looking to set up a committee (the NasdaqDubai press release uses the more elegant word "forum") to negotiate with creditors.   

As noted before, an interim report from KPMG is expected at the end of May with the "final" at the end of June.  As per my earlier post, this appears to be a rather preliminary report.

Now creditors would be naturally concerned when their obligor misses  the payment of what some might characterize as  a relatively trivial sum of US$3.4 million for interest. 

Notwithstanding the above announcement IIG wishes to confirm that IIG's and its associated businesses continue to trade on a normal basis and the day to day operations of such businesses have not been effected by the above event.
While an interesting definition of what is "normal", this belated entry into our competition is clearly not strong enough to cause our distinguished panel of judge (AA) to reverse the earlier award to Dr. Adnan Musallam and TID.   Though I suspect there will be additional opportunities for further entries as time passes.