The Investment Dar Kuwait - Standstill Agreement - 12 November Key Date - Creditor Response Uncertain

 

Today is a key date for TID and its advisor, Credit Suisse.

12 November is the deadline already extended once from 15 October for a response from creditors to a proposed standstill agreement.  A standstill would involve creditors voluntarily halting legal action against TID in return from some reciprocal actions and commitments from TID. 

Signs are not encouraging.  Failure to get creditors to agree to the Standstill would complicate matters but would not necessarily be "fatal".  The problem is the situation is complicated enough already.

While it's long past the end of the day in Kuwait, the lack of an announcement is not necessarily confirmation that creditors have not agreed.  TID is likely to have creditors in other jurisdictions and votes may still be coming in.  And if history is any guide, there will be ambiguous answers or contingencies placed on "yes" votes.  So some "hanging chads" to be resolved.

However, since votes like this don't take place on a single day, it's probably safe to assume that there wasn't a landslide of yes votes.   Otherwise, TID would have announced victory already. 

If asked to, I'd guess that the standstill is not likely to be accepted.  And if it's accepted, it will be by less than the number necessary to ensure protection from legal actions by dissident banks.

As you'll recall that in an earlier post, I noted the reported reluctance by certain participants in wakala transactions with TID to sign the standstill, preferring instead to rely on the "trust nature" of their transactions to secure repayment outside any debt restructuring.  And some speculation on the rumored resignation of an Adeem and Investment Dar Bank Bahrain director and connections with the TID restructuring.

TID's restructuring has been complicated by the fact that unlike Global Investment House ("GIH"), it has not issued any financial statements since its 30 September 2008 interim report.   Bankers don't like uncertainty.

As well unlike GIH, the Central Bank of Kuwait has appointed a temporary monitor at TID apparently at the request of creditors to oversee the completion of financials and the restructuring process  Perhaps a sign of the level of uncertainty of the creditor group.

A bit of background regarding the negotiations with creditors regarding some KD 1 billion (US$3.5 billion) in outstanding debt via announcements:

1. December 2008:  discussions with Commercial Bank of Kuwait to lead refinancing.  These do not succeed.
   
2. 25 January 2009:  announcement of engagement of Credit Suisse as a financial advisor.
3. 12 February 2009:  announcement that Credit Suisse will assist in developing a financial restructuring plan.
4. 1 April 2009:  KSE suspends trading in TID.
   
5. 12 May 2009:  TID defaults on US$100 million Sukuk
   
6. 28 May 2009:  announcement of formation of Creditors "Steering Committee" and upcoming meeting with creditors
7. 10 June 2009:  progress announcement.  (AA:  Note creditors have hired Morgan Stanley as their advisor).
   
8. 7 September 2009:  CBK appoints monitor at TID. (AA: The language used reflects the apparent concern of creditors.  There is of course always a break down in relations between banks and debtors when they advise they have difficulty paying or might have difficulty.  In effect the creditors have asked the CBK to look over the shoulder of TID's existing management.  A theme we'll see repeated with the Chief Restructuring Officer).
   
9. 26 September 2009:  announcement that "Creditors Co-Ordinating Committee" and TID had agreed a standstill agreement which was being submitted to all creditors for ratification with a deadline of 15 October. (AA:  Note the change from a "Steering Committee" to a "Co-Ordinating Committee".  That sounds like the members of the committee decided they  want to de-emphasize responsibility.  So they've taken their hands off the steering wheel and are now co-ordinating not leading).
   
10. 4 October 2009:  announcement of appointment of Chief Restructuring Officer, fulfilling a TID commitment under the proposed Standstill Agreement.  (AA: The creditors request for the appointment of a CRO is another indication of creditors' concerns.  It is not a vote of confidence in favor of existing management.)
    
11. 12 October 2009:  announcement of the extension of the deadline until 12 November.  "The intention is that the revised timeline will give a greater opportunity for TID’s banks and investors to actively participate in the standstill process. As such; the new date by when TID’s banks and investors can accede to the Standstill Agreement is 12 November."  (AA:  In other words not enough creditors signed up by 12 October and it was clear they wouldn't by 15 October. So the deadline was extended.  But their language sounds more eloquent than mine).

Failure to achieve the standstill need not be fatal.  But TID and CS will have to move quickly to create some forward momentum that will keep creditors engaged in discussions rather than court rooms.  A task as difficult as the proverbial herding of cats.

I'll be following this and update as more news becomes available.