Monday, 14 December 2009

Dubai: "I Have Always Depended on the Kindness of Neightbors"

Apologies to Tennessee Williams for changing his words.  But casting Dubai as Blanche du Bois seems highly appropriate on a number of levels. 

Today, there is great joy in the financial world:  Abu Dhabi has bailed out Dubai.  Though at this point, we don't know what the conditions are.  Loan or grant?  Any quid pro quo?  Or perhaps quid pro the "quids"?

Like the drunk who has fallen in the river and been pulled out by a kindly stranger, it  is likely that bankers and investors have learned little.  They appear to be headed back to the Risk Saloon to start another bender.  This time it will be different though, they will lay off the "Jack Dubai".  Instead of Old Number 7, perhaps a spot of Black Label. 

Hedge funds and vulture investors are celebrating a quick buck made.  Perhaps the only ones with a claim to any glory.

The borrower is relieved.  It has been spared the humiliation of a formal default.  And Lord knows it's suffered plenty humiliation to date.  The beautiful dream, a modern day Belle Reve,  may be lost.  And despite their name the Elysian Fields are a bit more downscale.  Here's the official statement.

And one revised 45 or so minutes later to include a bit about how Dubai will remain an important global  financial center.  "I don't want realism. I want magic! Yes, yes, magic. I try to give that to people. I do misrepresent things. I don't tell truths. I tell what ought to be truth"  or so goes the script.

One wonders (well at least AA does) how this was overlooked in the initial release.  Initial excitement at the good news?  Lack of attention to detail?  A slip-up at WAM?  Suggestion from someone  higher up to get back on message? 

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