Sunday, 14 March 2010

Mashreqbank v AlGosaibi Heirs: Ruling Against Mashreq

Last week the Supreme Court of New York updated its website for filings in two cases brought by Mashreqbank against the AlGosaibis.  AlGosaibi heirs refer to the 20 individuals who are the partners in Ahmad Hamad AlGosaibi and Brothers.

To put what follows in context, Mashreqbank has filed three cases in the Supreme Court of New York.
  1. A case against The International Banking Corporation which has been effectively stayed by a filing under Chapter 15 of Title 11.  This effectively "ended" Mashreq's case in NY.
  2. A case against Ahmad Hamad al Gosaibi and Brothers (the partnership as an entity).  In its response AHAB added Maan AlSanea as a Third Party Defendant.  This is NY Supreme Court Case Index #601650/2009.
  3. A case against the twenty individuals comprising the AHAB partnership.   This is NY Supreme Court Case Index #602171/2009.
I printed out a massive stack of documents from the latter two cases and have been merrily reading away the AHAB case documents.  I noticed that the stack of documents from Case #3 above was much smaller.  So I've turned my attention temporarily to that case.

Two developments.

First, as noted above, Justice Richard Lowe III has ruled against Mashreqbank's motion for the Court to order an attachment of defendants' assets, personal property, funds and electronic funds transfers that are located in New York.   He has done so "without prejudice" meaning that Mashreqbank can attempt to remedy the defects in its pleading and file again to obtain the order.  The ruling is dated 25 February 2010 but was only filed on the Supreme Court website on 8 March.  If you want to look yourself, this is document #46.  Instructions on how to access the Supreme Court Website are here.  Be sure to use the right Case Index Number 602171/2009 when you search.

What was the problem?  

The lawsuit concerns two FX deals that Masreqbank undertook.  One with AHAB (the US$150 million which is the subject of Case #2 above) and one with TIBC (which is the subject of Case #1 above).  The transactions themselves were not directly with the partners in AHAB.  

Mashreqbank's lawyers failed to "join" the two contracting parties (AHAB and TIBC) to this lawsuit.  

And in the words of Justice Lowe:  
"To state a contractual cause of action against the individual partners where the partnership is not joined, the complaint must allege that the partnership is insolvent or otherwise unable to meet its obligations."
Mashreqbank has not done this in this case.

Perhaps equally or more important (since Justice Lowe is also on the "bench" for Case #2 above), Mashreqbank has not joined the partners as defendants in Case #2 above. This seems a potentially "fatal" flaw.

Speaking about precedent case Vets North, Inc v Libutti 9278 AD2d 406, 407 [2d Dept 2000]) in which Vets North had not joined the partners and then tried to enforce a judgment against the partners:
The Court determined that plaintiff could not enforce the judgment, because the partners had not been named in the proceeding against the partnership.  "Resort to the personal assets of individual partners is possible only as to those general partners who were named individually as defendants and personally served with process in the proceeding which resulted in the judgment." (id; see also Tally v 885 Real Estate Associates, 11 AD3d 242, 242 [1st Dept 2004])
It looks like Mashreqbank's counsel has some filing to do in both cases.  Since their motion was denied without prejudice they get a second bite at the apple.  (Sorry, I couldn't resist the pun).

The second was that earlier Mashreqbank (14 January 2010) had agreed to drop Mr. AlSanea's wife (Sana Abdulaziz Hamad alGosaibi) as a defendant.  The stipulation (Document #45) is  rather short and gives no reason for this move.  It would seem to me that Mashreqbank would be looking to line up as many pockets  as it could to ensure that it retrieves all the money owed it.   And that amount is not inconsiderable.  Beyond the cases in New York, Mashreqbank has filed a case in the UAE for a total amount of AED1,457,164,610.14 (US$397,047,577.70).

Given all that is at stake, letting Ms. Sana off the hook is a rather curious move indeed.

    2-1

    In the race.

    Saturday, 13 March 2010

    The Investment Dar - Issues Press Release on Filing under Financial Stability Law


    Here's Investment Dar's press release announcing they had filed for protection under the FSL.  

    Looks like they're having something problems with their  HTML code as the formatting in the press release is askew.

    You can access earlier posts on TID by using the label "The Investment Dar".  And on the Financial Stability Law by using the label "Financial Stability Law".

    Friday, 12 March 2010

    Idiocy Knows No Borders: Start a Hedge Fund From Your Garage


    A whole new meaning to the financial term "get taken for a ride".

    The investors' due diligence must have been great on this HF, particularly the questions on the professional background and competence of the principals of the firm.

    Mashreqbank v AlGosaibi – Analysis of FX Deals

    This post is based on the affidavit (including appendices) submitted by Bruce R. Grace, Esq. of Baach Robinson & Lewis PLLC, who are the attorneys for Ahmad Hamad AlGosaibi & Brothers Company ("AHAB") in the above lawsuit. Attorney Grace submitted these documents to the Supreme Court of the State of New York on 5 February 2010. They were filed as Document #83. But since then for some reason there's been a change. Document #83 has been deleted and it and each of the exhibits contained have been filed as separate documents all dated 25 February. The specific document used as the basis for this post and referred to herein is Document #87-1. 

    You can access electronic documents filings for this case at the Supreme Court of New York's website (http://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/webcivil/FCASMain). Search using Case Index #601650/2009. Follow the steps. You have to go through several pages. On the page labeled "WebCivil Supreme – Case Detail" go to the bottom of the page and click on the "Show EFiled Documents" button.

    As usual, a caveat. As you read documents filed in the case, keep in mind that each side's lawyers are not disinterested partisans of truth. They are hired to represent their clients.

    From the documents I've read it's clear that both parties agree that there was an FX transaction in the name of AHAB with Mashreqbank under which Mashreqbank was to pay US$150 million to AHAB's account at Bank of America on 28 April 2009 and AHAB was to pay SAR564.3 million to Mashreqbank value 5 May 2009. They also agree that Mashreq fulfilled its side of the contract but that AHAB did not.

    As you'd expect both parties have different views about this latter fact. Here's how I would summarize their arguments. AHAB has two key contentions. First that they were the victim of a fraud perpetrated by Mr. AlSanea. And second that from the nature and pattern of the deals Mashreq should have known the deals themselves were questionable. Therefore, Mashreq is in some sense complicit. On its part, Mashreqbank has vigorously denied knowledge of any wrongdoing in the deals and asserts that it was acting in commercial good faith. The Bank also argues that the instructions it received appeared to come from duly authorized parties at AHAB. Simply put, there is a commercial deal which AHAB needs to honor. That's my take. But, I suggest you read the case documents themselves to get a complete picture of their positions.

    Putting aside the issue of who is right and who is wrong, let's take a closer look at the FX deal which is the subject of this case.

    The FX transaction is somewhat unusual as it is a "split value" deal. Normally FX deals have both parties making payments on the same day. If Bank A sells Bank B Sterling against the US Dollar, on the settlement date Bank A remits Sterling to Bank B's account. And on the same day Bank B remits the countervalue in US Dollars to Bank A's account. In a split value date deal, one party pays before the other. The party who pays first is taking risk that the second party might not pay. It is taking a credit risk that the second party may not pay its side of the transaction due to financial problems – being put under administration, entering bankruptcy, etc. Even in an FX transaction where settlement occurs on the same day, there is that credit risk. Herstatt Bank is an example. However, the longer the gap between the first party's payment and the second party's the more credit risk the first party is bearing. 

    So what could be the reasons why parties would agree to a split value settlement mechanism?

    Credit Risk Management

    If one of the parties were concerned about the creditworthiness of the other, it could mitigate its risk by requiring the weaker party to pay first. After confirming receipt of funds and only then, the stronger party would remit its funds. This eliminates credit risk on the weaker party. The time between the two payments would be primarily a function of two things. First, the time it takes for the stronger party to confirm receipt of the funds from the weaker party. Second, how soon thereafter, the stronger party is operationally able to make its payment of the countervalue currency.
    Given the currencies involved – the US Dollar and the Saudi Riyal- confirmation of receipt should be relatively easily. There are two widely available methods which provide quick and efficient information (as well as payment functionality) to banks around the world. The shared global "utility" called SWIFT. And proprietary systems offered by various major banks around the world – generally based on access via the Internet using PCs.  AHAB and Mashreq would have access to one or both of these.

    In terms of payments, same day payments for these currencies should be no problem.  The US system has been "wired" for some time.  Saudi Arabia has had an electronic interbank payment system - including same day payments - since 1997 SARIE (Saudi Arabian Riyal Interbank Express).  Payment instructions could be transmitted by SWIFT or a proprietary bank system.

    Two conclusions. 

    First, This can't be a credit motivated transaction since the stronger credit, Mashreq, is paying first.

    Second, the gap between payments, seven days, is longer than what a credit driven transaction would require.  Three days is probably sufficient as this represents the  "worst case" in terms of operational timing.  That is, if  Mashreq were to remit US Dollars on a Wednesday,  because of later NY working hours, AHAB might not be able to confirm receipt until the next business day. Even if staff came in on Thursday to confirm receipt, a SAR payment couldn't be made until Saturday. 

    The only thing that could lengthen the period would be seasonal holidays, e.g., Eid Al Fitr, Eid AlAdha, National Day, etc.  Were there any seasonal holidays during late April / early May 2009 that extended the time period?   No! 

    So I think we can safely exclude credit concerns as a motive for a split value date deal in this case.

    OPERATIONAL REQUIREMENTS – DISPARITY OF WORKING DAYS

    The second reason for these transactions is ostensibly disparity of working days. That is, on the settlement date, New York is open for US Dollar payments but Riyadh (and the rest of Saudi) is closed for the weekend or a holiday. As noted above, Saudi Arabia's "weekend" is Thursday and Friday. 

    In this transaction US Dollars settled on Tuesday 28 April 2009 with the SAR on Tuesday 5 May 2009. There were five Saudi working days from 28 April to 5 May: Tuesday 28 April, Wednesday 29 April, Saturday 2 May, Sunday 3 May and Monday 4 May. There were no "seasonal" holidays during this period. So it is hard to see that there is an operational reason for the seven day gap.

    A key question though (at least in my mind) is whether even with a disparity of working days such a split value deal would be entertained. 

    When I worked for financial firms in the ME managed according to "USA" practices, a split value deal (except one undertaken for credit reasons) was strictly forbidden.  And generally there was  no interest in the extra hassle involved with credit motivated split value deals.   Two reasons. First, such a transaction could be a way of providing a short term money market loan to a party. Such extensions of credit were required to take place under lines specifically designated for loans.  If a transaction does not appear as a loan, a bank might extend another loan well beyond its risk tolerance for that customer. Another reason was integrity of our financial statements and regulatory reporting. A loan should be reported as a loan not an FX transaction.

    Now I recognize that contrary to the beliefs of some what a "USA-style" managed institution does is not necessary infallible behavior. So I checked with an old friend who is long experienced  in Treasury at the DGM/AGM level in both "Arab" and "European" style managed banks. He told me that none of the institutions he worked for ever would entertain such a transaction. The counterparty would simply be told  that the deal had to be done on a common working day for both currencies so that settlement of both sides of the transaction could take place on the same day. But perhaps our horizons are too narrow.  Maybe other institutions apply different rules.  Even if that is the case (and I'm not persuaded that routinely doing split value date deals makes good business sense), the fact is that 28 April was a valid business day in both the Kingdom and the USA. So there was no operational reason both sides could not have settled on the 28 April. 

    My friend also commented that the 3.762 FX rate used in the transaction was "non reflective of the market price". In his banks and mine, it was strictly forbidden to book transactions at non market rates. The concern was that one was assisting someone in manipulating their financials.

    RATIONALE FOR THE SPLIT VALUE TRANSACTIONS

    So if we've eliminated these two justifications, what could be the rationale this transaction?

    If we examine the pattern of transactions, we can perhaps gain an insight into their purpose and rationale. 

    In his affidavit Exhibit 1, page 20 paragraph #21 Attorney Grace states that between February 2005 and 5 May 2009, Mashreq and AHAB engaged in over "100 purported 'split value foreign exchange transactions' substantially identical to the transaction pleaded by Mashreq in the Complaint. Between January 2008 and 1 May 2009 alone, 52 split value foreign exchange transactions were carried out between Mashreq and the Money Exchange, totaling US$4.7 billion." 

    He then goes on to describe that the transactions involved a payment of US Dollars by Mashreq to AlGosaibi's US Dollar account at Bank of America New York with AHAB to pay SAR to Mashreq at National Commercial Bank 3 to 12 days later. The FX rates used in these transactions were not at the prevailing spot FX rate. The SAR is fixed to the US Dollar at 3.75 SAR = $1.00. Interbank trading takes place in a narrow range around that rate. Before the settlement date, AHAB and Mashreq would engage in an offsetting deal to roll the existing deal forward. He also noted that in every deal Mashreq made a profit. AHAB never did.

    Here's an outline of how this scenario might work. First, there is the original deal. Let's use the deal settling 5 May for SAR as the "Original Deal" (though to be clear that deal was actually the rollover of an earlier deal). That deal involved US Dollars against SAR with Mashreq paying US$150 million value 28 April with AHAB to pay SAR564.3 million on 5 May. If we presume AHAB doesn't have any money or wants to use its money for something else, how does it settle the payment due on 5 May to Mashreq?

    Let's treat this as two separate deals. First a deal to cover the SAR payment due on 5 May (a "Closeout Deal"). And then a second deal to re-open the position in US Dollars (a "Rollover Deal").

    In the Closeout Deal AHAB buys SAR from Mashreq against its (AHAB's) payment of US Dollars to Mashreq with settlement of both for value 5 May at the Spot Rate of 3.75. That takes care of the obligation to pay SAR from the Original Deal, except for Mashreq's profit SAR0.9 million which AHAB has to fund from its own resources. (The "profit" arises from the difference in SAR betweens US$150 million at SAR 3.75 = US$1.00 and SAR 3.762).

    But now it needs US$150 million to pay for the SAR value 5 May under the Closeout Deal. Where does it get the US Dollars, if it doesn't already have them? From the Rollover Deal. Let's assume the Rollover Deal has the same terms as the Original Deal except the value dates are different. So, AHAB would buy US Dollars from Mashreq value 5 May against a payment of SAR to Mashreq value 12 May. This deal re-introduces the split value date.

    While the Affidavit it sounds as though the Closeout Deal and the Rollover Deal were combined into a single deal, the Exhibits contain a copy of AHAB's confirmation for the Original Deal (itself a Rollover of an earlier deal). That confirm shows that there must have been two separate deals as outlined above. AHAB and Mashreq could agree to net the two deals' payments. And thus AHAB would owe Mashreq SAR0.9 million.   AHAB's obligation to pay Mashreq US$150 million (Closeout Deal) would be "offset" by Mashreq's obligation to pay US $150 million to AHAB (Rollover Deal).

    Putting this information in tabular form might make the explanation clearer. The table below summarizes the cash flows by value date that would have occurred from a rollover of the transaction maturing 5 May. But note: no such rollover occurred: no Closeout Deal and no Rollover Deal. And since AHAB didn't settle the SAR payment on 5 May, Mashreq is pursuing them in Court.


    TransactionUS$ 28 AprilUS$ 5 MaySAR 5 MaySAR 12 May
    Original Deal

    FX Rate = 3.762
    +$150MM -SAR564.3MM
    Closeout Deal

    FX Rate = 3.75
    $0-$150MM
    +SAR562.5MM
    Rollover Deal

    FX Rate = 3.762
    $0+$150MM
    -SAR564.3MM


     
    TOTAL CASHFLOW

    TO AHAB
    +$150MMUS$0-SAR1.8MM-SAR564.3MM


    As you can see from above the Closeout Deal and the Rollover Deal effectively push forward AHAB's payment of the SAR564.3 million to settle the original inflow of US$150 million. The only payment that does occur is the profit payment to Mashreq on 5 May. On each settlement date in the future (assuming the deal would be continued to be rolled forward), AHAB would pay Mashreq its profit. That explains why Mashreq always was making a "profit" on each deal.

    Based on the above. 
    1. These FX transactions were the equivalent of short term loans. 
    2. The persistent "profit" on the deals was in effect the interest payment on the loan. 
    3. The transaction FX rate of 3.762 compared to the 3.75 fixed parity results in an implied borrowing rate of 8.32% per annum. That rate might seem high. The day before the 28 April value date one month Libor was trading at roughly 43 basis points. That means the margin over Libor was roughly 7.9%. But remember that at that time spreads were still elevated due to subprime crisis, the failure of Lehman, etc. So there is some rationale to the credit spread here. 
    4. Also as is hopefully clear, the Rollover Deals did not result in AHAB getting more money from Mashreq. Rather the Rollovers merely extended the maturity of the loan. So despite the US$4.7 billion volume of transactions mentioned, AHAB only received  (borrowed) US$150 million from Mashreq. 
    5. Mashreq's dealers must have known that they were extending loans. Whether its management did is not determinable from the documents I've seen. 
    6. In terms of justification for the transaction, it's hard to imagine that anyone with a knowledge of AHAB's business could consider these transactions were commercially necessary to fund the needs of the Money Exchange business. The volumes are too large relative to the Exchange's business.  Since the amounts were rolled forward, there was only one net cash inflow to AHAB. 
    7. Nor would these transactions likely to be financially motivated "hedges", particularly, since the US$/SAR FX rate is fixed (and has been so for many many years) and since the Saudi Government has ample financial resources to maintain the "peg".

    Commercial Bank of Kuwait 2009 Profits KD0.154 Million



    AlQabas reports that the Central Bank of Kuwait has approved Commercial Bank's 2009 financials.  Net profit is reported as being KD154,000 after heavy (but unquantified) additions to provisions.  The Bank reported net profit of KD100.7 million for 2008. 

    However, this year earnings have been "subdued" as the Bank has built provisions starting in the Second Quarter.  At 30 September 2009, it reported a net loss of KD1.6 million.   So this is not big news if you've been paying attention.

    Dubai World - Debt Rescheduling Proposal - Just A Maturity Extension?


    According to Gulf News, recent discussions suggest that the rescheduling may just an extension of maturities with no haircuts or other features which would offend the sensibilities of DW's lenders or investors.

    Time will tell.  Until then we're all still free to speculate.

    Thursday, 11 March 2010

    More on Retail Banking Distress - Saudi Youth and Credit Cards

    A rather short article from AlQabas relaying a recent survey among Saudi youth.
    1. 52% are suffering from debt caused by the improper use of credit cards.
    2. Two thirds expressed concerns about the rising cost of living, the housing shortage, decline in salaries, and the increase in unemployment.
    Credit cards are a particularly insidious form of debt.  The interest charges are relatively high. As a result it's quite easy to get into a debt trap - where the debt keeps increasing even if one makes the minimum monthly payment.

    Banks are not always responsible in the underwriting stage - cards are often given to those who shouldn't have them.  Where there is no central credit bureau, the bank is essentially lending "blind" as it doesn't know the customer's credit history (payments) nor does it know how much credit outstanding the customer has.  

    And credit monitoring and management is absolutely woeful.  I know a customer of one regional financial institution - the winner of more than one award for excellence in banking who restructured a client's credit card debt to a five year personal loan. One month after the negotiations concluded the chap got a letter from the credit card division of that same bank thanking him for "paying off" his balance and offering him a new credit card with a higher limit!  This after they had spent the previous six months writing him letters threatening legal action and all sort of woeful consequences if he didn't pay his bill.   Somehow when his balance was transferred from the credit card division to the personal loan division it registered as a "payoff". 

    HSBC Middle East Business


    A while back the press reported on the decline in HSBC's Middle East earnings from US$1.7 billion to US$0.5 billion. I didn't see a detailed analysis. So a closer look today – with some focus  on retail in line with the earlier post on Emirates NBD.

    So you can follow along here are links to HSBC's 2009 Annual Report and their 2009 Investor & Analyst Presentation. The annual report is a slim 504 page "puppy". You'll find the numerical analysis of ME business on pages 116 and following. I've also indicated sources for the major data. All amounts are in US$ millions.

    First a geographical context. Just where is HSBC's ME business concentrated?

    Let's look at net income allocated by geography. (Page 117 from Annual Report)

    Country200720082009
    Egypt$   153$   223$ 224
    UAE$   617$   861$   (3)
    Other$   300$   367$   41
    Share of Saudi British Bank$   237$   295$ 193
    TOTAL$1,307$1,746$ 455
     
    1. The important of the UAE to HSBC's ME business is clear, though it should be noted that ME business is a relatively small part of HSBC's franchise. In the range of a rounding error compared to other geographic regions. 
    2. As a general comment, HSBC's main lines of business across the ME (in order of income contribution) are Global Banking and Markets, then Commercial Banking and then Personal Financial Services ("Retail"). 
    3. In 2007 and 2008 the UAE represented almost 50% of net income in the ME.
    Now the asset side of the ledger – loans and advances only as FYE 2009. (Page 212 from the Annual Report).

    EgyptUAEOtherTotal
    Residential Mortgages$       0$  1,693$   248$  1,941
    Other Personal$   275$  3,748$1,560$  5,583
    Property Related$   125$  2,118$   775$  3,018
    Commercial, International Trade & Other$2,106$10,214$4,847$17,167
    TOTAL$2,506$17,773$7,430$27,709
     
    1. HSBC's share of Saudi British Bank (reflected in the income data above) is not reported here. 
    2. The Bank has significant US$ exposure in each of the product lines, particularly in the UAE. 
    3. Equally, it's clear that the UAE business drives the Bank's ME franchise. 
    4. The UAE is 64% of the loan book. 77% of real estate related lending. 67% of Personal Loans. 59% of Commercial and International Loans.
     Third, a sectoral breakdown by net income. What are the contributions of various lines of business? (Page 117 from Annual Report)

    Line of Business200720082009
    Personal Financial Services$   245$   289$(126)
    Commercial Banking$   482$   558$   21
    Global Banking & Markets$   495$   816$ 467
    Private Banking$       3$       4$      6
    Other$     82$     79$   87
    TOTAL$1,307$1,746$ 455
     
    1. The Global Banking & Markets segment are large corporate and sovereigns. I expect that the Dubai Inc exposure is within this segment.

    Now breakdown of business in the UAE using net income. (Page 117 Annual Report)

    Line of Business200720082009
    Personal Financial Services$ 108$ 133$(177)
    Commercial Banking$ 262$ 330$(136)
    Global Banking & Markets$ 242$ 388$ 307
    Private Banking$     3$    4$    (2)
    Other$     2$     6$     5
    TOTAL$ 617$ 861$    (3)
     
    1. Global Banking & Markets plays a key role with Commercial Banking next and then Retail. 
    2. Both Retail and Commercial Banking have taken some rather dramatic hits – some US$776 million in reversal from 2008 levels. 
    3. The Bank has yet to take any sizeable provisions for its GB&M business. I suspect that it is just a matter of time before this shoe drops.
    And now loan impairment and provisions in the ME by line of business. (Pages 122-124 Annual Report)

    Line of Business200720082009
    Personal Financial Services$  66$ 223$   588
    Commercial Banking$(11)$   45$   573
    Global Banking & Markets$    0$   12$   173
    Private Banking$    0$     0$       0
    Other$    0$    (1)$       0
    Inter Segment Eliminations$    0$     0 $       0
    TOTAL$ 55$ 279$1,334
     
    1. Here a negative number is "good". It is a "de-expense" in the words of Emirates-NBD. 
    2. HSBC doesn't provide a further breakdown of these lines of business by country. Or at least I didn't find them. So we have to work with ME wide figures. Thus, the analysis below probably understates the situation in the UAE as most of the loan problems are centered there. 
    3. Over the three year period, we can see the distress building. 
    4. Loan Impairment Charges ("LIC") to Gross Operating Income (before LIC and operating expenses) ("GOI") may be useful metric to quantify the extent of the distress. 
    5. For Retail Banking that ratio was 9.6% for 2007. In 2008 23.2%. And in 2009 62%. I'd note that in the latter two years GOI was roughly the same so it's not a case of the numerator shrinking. 
    6. For Commercial Banking, there was a net recovery in 2007. In 2008 5.5%. In 2009 72%. For GB&M, in 2007 0%. In 2008 1.4%. In 2009 21%. 
    7. Let's take a purely "balance sheet" look at this same issue. On Page 211 we see that in 2009 of all HSBC's 7 geographic regions, the ME has the highest percentage of impaired loans at 6.8%, 0.8% more than the USA where HSBC is still struggling with the impact of Household Finance. What a change from 2008 where the ME had a 1.0% ratio and was tied for fifth place! 
    8. One final place to look and that's charge offs. A provision is an amount added to a reserve (or as HSBC calls it an "allowance"). Provisions pass through the income statement as an expense.  The provisions are then added to the reserve/allowance account.  This account serves as a "contra" to the loan account and is subtracted from it. When a loan is deemed to be uncollectable either in part or in full, the uncollectable amount is charged off. This transaction does not pass through the income statement but is offset against the loans account  and the contra account. 
    9. In 2009, HSBC charged off US$384 million of loans. Of this amount US$376 million was for Personal non mortgage loans. By contrast in 2008, the Bank charged off US$164 million of which US$153 million was for Personal non mortgage loans. The year to year increase on Personal non mortgage loans is 146%.

    Central Bank of Kuwait Worried About Possible Ratings Downgrade

    According to AlQabas it has learned from  high level banking sources that at a meeting held 3 days ago with chief executives and general managers of local banks, Yusuf AlAbid, Head of Banking Supervision, expressed concerns that the rating agencies might downgrade some Kuwaiti financial institutions as they had done in the UAE.

    He anticipated that this would not be done for new reasons, but because of the operational situation the banks in Kuwait faced.  A particular note was sounded about the banks' loan problems with investment companies.

    While this isn't stated in the article, I wonder if these concerns could lead the CBK and other relevant authorities to push the TID through the FSL.  With the conclusion of GIH's restructuring, TID is highly visible.  The amount is large.  Its restructuring is still hanging.  There's unfortunate publicity - the BLOM case for one.   Lack of progress may cause the rating agencies  to "mark down" ultimate recovery and  reflect that lower value in their rating of individual lenders. From a country reputation management perspective, it is probably ideal to move this case to "implementation".    Declare it is a success. If there is  a problem it's likely to be a year or so down the road,  And for that period, TID won't be a drag on the banks or the country.

    Group to Make Offer for Kuwait International Bank


    AlQabas reports that a local group of investors is ready to make a bid of KD0.500 per share to the major shareholder (BuKhamseen Group) for its 33% share in the bank as a prelude to securing majority control through purchases on the KSE.  The offer is conditioned on obtaining Central Bank of Kuwait approval.

    KIB is the old Kuwait Real Estate Bank which now operates as an "Islamic" Bank.  For the past week or so its shares have been trading in a range of KD0.228 to KD0.248 per share.  So the offer represents a substantial premium over the market price.

    As reported earlier here and here, there are some potential financial troubles plaguing Mr. Jawad BuKhamseen, who is the owner of the major shareholder.  I wonder if any of the old shareholding group who left after a falling out with Jawad might be staging a comeback?  The investor group is described as being composed of investment companies, manufacturing companies and individual investors.

    Here's a link to KIB's page at the KSE.

    The Investment Dar - Formally Requests Financial Stability Law Protection


    Citing "sources close to the Creditors' Coordinating Committee", AlQabas reports that TID informed the Committee that its Board met two days ago and unanimously agreed to seek legal protection for its restructuring plan under Kuwait's Financial Stability Law.  The Company has submitted an official request to the concerned authorities.  A response is expected in approximately 14 days.

    TID is holding creditor meetings in London to sweep up the banks that did not attend its Kuwait or Dubai briefings - mostly European banks.

    TID will be the first investment company to avail itself of the "Chapter 11-like" provisions of the FSL.  If accepted, the company will be able to cram down the dissenting creditors who have frustrated its attempt to implement the restructuring.

    Still apparently unresolved are TID's 2008 audited financials.  I expect not having these done might complicate matters under the FSL.

    Banks at DIFC Legally Barred From Charging Assets in UAE


    Emirates Business 24/7 reports that banks operating out of the DIFC are legally incapable of taking a charge on collateral to secure their loans because only banks regulated by the Central Bank of the UAE may do so.  Banks within the DIFC are not subject to Central Bank of UAE regulations.  Rather the DFSA regulates them.

    Presumably authorities will be keen to encourage lending and therefore will expand the law to allow banks regulated by the DFSA to register/perfect charges on collateral.

    As to the second constraint, this is not uncommon.  There are restrictions for example on "Wholesale Banks" in the Kingdom of Bahrain in terms of deposit taking from residents of the Kingdom.

    Dubai World to Meet With Local Creditors - No or Low Interest Repayment Option?


    The National reports that DW is planning meetings with local creditors - Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and Emirates National Bank.  These meetings follow ones held earlier this week in London with "international" banks.

    The goal of this series of meetings is probably twofold.

    First to test some restructuring ideas with these major banks to get feedback.   Second as a way of managing the process - trying to influence future negotiations by framing the bankers' expectations.  

    One of the options that apparently is being considered is a low or no interest repayment of 100% of the principal over some extended period.

    Let's look at some examples to see what sort of discounts one can achieve through this device.
    1. A bullet repayment 10 years from now of 100% of principal equals a present value of 61% of face at a 5% annual discount rate.  Changing just the repayment to 5 years from now raises the present value to 78%.
    2. Using the same two scenarios above but applying a 10% discount rate, the 10 year bullet has a present value of 39% of face and the 5 year bullet is worth 62%.
    3. Amortizing the loan in 5 equal yearly installments gives present value of 87% at 5% and 76% at 10%.
    4. If there is unequal amortization of 0%, 10%, 15%, 25%, and 50%, then the present value of at 5% discount rate is 82% and 68% with a 10% discount rate.
    What's the bottom line?  One can achieve quite a hefty "haircut" through this tool.

    The Nation suggests that banks might want the zero interest or low interest option as a way of avoiding taking the "hit" to income up front.  I think it is highly likely that any reputable accounting firm is going to let a client who uses IFRS as the basis for financial reporting "get away" with carrying the loan at its nominal value.  This is clearly a restructured loan. 

    The relevant Chapter and Verse are IAS #39 Paragraphs 58 and 59 which deal with impairments in value.  Haircuts, no interest or below market interest rates,  tenor extensions, other concessions that a lender would not normally agree to along with several other items are cited as evidence of  potential "impairment" in Paragraph 59.  

    Paragraphs 63-65 deal with calculating impairments for assets held "at cost".   Present value the projected cash flows at the original interest rate on the instrument.  Any shortfall between original cost and present value is an impairment loss which must be taken immediately to the income statement.

    Paragraph 66 deals with impairments on assets "held as available for sale".  There the discount rate is the "market" rate for that asset at present. Since this is an impairment not a fair value adjustment, it also goes through the income statement.

    Wednesday, 10 March 2010

    Bend it Like Bendtner 5-0!

    Thanks lads.

    Good luck ladies.

    GCC Monetary Union: Meeting to Discuss Unified Banking Regulations and Supervision

    Officials from Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia met in Riyadh today to discuss plans for unified banking regulations and supervision in the GCC states adhering to the Gulf Monetary Union.  At present Oman and the UAE have "excused" themselves from participation in the GMU.

    Hopefully this process will lead to a raising of standards and supervision in some countries rather than bringing down the leader in that field to a lower level.

    The Investment Dar - Local Banks Reportedly "Comfortable" with Use of Financial Stability Law


    Quoting unnamed banking "sources" AlQabas reports that local banks seem to be comfortable with TID using the Financial Stability Law as a tool to implement the restructuring.  As you're aware, while TID has advised that it has all the necessary legal documents ready, it has not sought to implement the restructuring because dissenting creditors are still pursuing the company in court.  The FSL contains a cramdown mechanism and so this would be a way to remove the legal weapon from their hands.

    Two other points in the article worthy of note - perhaps much more worthy of note than the first for the implications they carry.
    1. Morgan Stanley (advisor to the Creditors Committee) reportedly has two studies - an optimistic and a pessimistic one.  Under the former the banks recover 100% of their dues.  Under the latter 78%.  AA:  This is perplexing because in such a case it would make absolutely no economic sense for a creditor to sue.  Are the facts being fixed around the FSL requirements?  What's also clear here is that when the restructuring is over, TID which has pledged all its assets to the restructuring is going to left as little more than two guys, one desk and maybe a prepaid phone.
    2. The sources also did not hide their concerns (literally fears) as to how the FSL might be applied to TID.  This would be the first use of the law.  AA:  I've posted some thoughts on possible issues.  One major stumbling block remains the company's 2008 audited financials and the Central Bank of Kuwait's apparent insistence on what would seem to be from the debate between CBK and TID to be rather substantial provisions and write-downs.
    It's pretty clear that creditors (or at least 80% of them) are eager to close this file by implementing the restructuring.  Perhaps, the authorities in Kuwait are also interested in removing this case from the newspapers.  If there is a will, a way can be found.

    Earlier posts can be accessed using the label "The Investment Dar".  My thoughts on the FSL are here and applicability to TID here.

    Tuesday, 9 March 2010

    What's Next for Global Banks?


    The McKinsey Quarterly claims to have found the answer.  Artilce available hereNote:  you may have to register with McK to obtain access.

    Three words: tough times ahead.
    1. More capital needed.  US$600 billion over the next five years for the 25 banks in McK sample - some 40 to 45% of global industry assets.
    2. Higher funding costs for long-term funding. McK sees banks lengthening tenors and avoiding shorter term markets which dried up in the Subprime Meltdown thus exacerbating liquidity problems.
    3. Tighter regulation.
    4. Overall lower ROE's.   
    5. Better prospects in Asia.
    6. Emerging market giants will outperform developed-market universals.
    Two observations.
    Like any industry facing regulation, the banks are beside themselves  issuing  jeremiads about the dangers that will be done to the world economy from hasty regulation.  As responsible corporate citizens, they are most decidedly not opposing these measures because they would harm their profits, but rather for the damage that would be done to the world's economies and thus to the innocent average citizen.

    McK sees a bright future for Asia.  If McK is focused on the PRC, they may be a bit too optimistic.  There are a lot of unresolved economic issues in the PRC that could affect the health of the banking sector there.  So while they will have pride of place for size, the question is the future of their ROA and ROE metrics.   

    For those wondering about the Middle East, I don't think there are any "giants" here.  The largest bank in the ME would be a nice sized regional bank in the USA.