International Investment Group - KPMG Report to be Released

IIG announced in several venues today that its new board had approved the release of the KPMG report to certificateholders of its Sukuk.

"Unfortunately", AA missed this "wonderful" investment opportunity.  What was I thinking?  And, so, I won't be getting a copy.

Anyone who has a spare copy that they don't mind sharing please contact me via this blog's Contact Page.

Awal Bank Chapter 11 Filing - Statement on Behalf of Charles Russell

In response to my request I received the following from Alisdair Haythornthwaite at Bell Pottinger Middle East (UAE).   BPME is a division of Chime Communications, a leading UK public relations firm (among other things).

Awal Bank BSC Chapter 11 Case Update

U.S. Court Delays Consideration of Awal Bank’s Proposed Chapter 11 Protocol

Bahrain, October 27, 2010:  Charles Russell LLP, acting as External Administrator and Foreign Representative (the “Foreign Representative”) of and for Awal Bank BSC (“Awal Bank”) attended a “first day” hearing on October 26, 2010.

At the hearing, the Bankruptcy Court considered the Foreign Representative’s Motion for Entry of an Order Establishing Protocol for Chapter 11 (the “Motion”).  After hearing from both the Office of the United States Trustee and counsel for the Foreign Representative, the Bankruptcy Court directed that the Motion be further considered at a later date after giving opportunity for creditors to make representations regarding the relief requested in the Motion.

The U.S. based legal activities form part of a multinational litigation process, with court proceedings also currently underway in Bahrain, the Cayman Islands, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. It is therefore necessary that any Protocol established in the U.S. works alongside the work being undertaken in Bahrain. In this regard the Foreign Representative is considering whether to further pursue the relief requested in the Motion.

In October 2009 the Foreign Representative obtained “foreign main proceeding” recognition from the Bankruptcy Court under Chapter 15 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code for Awal Bank’s administration proceedings in Bahrain. The Bahraini administration governed by the Central Bank of Bahrain and Financial Institutions Law (“CBBFIL”), continues to be recognised as the foreign main proceeding under Chapter 15.

I'll keep monitoring the Bankruptcy Court of the Southern District of New York for electronic filings on the case to see if there is anything on the Court's reasoning for its decision. 

Damas - New AED 614 Million Agreement with Abdullah Brothers

Damas announced on Nasdaq Dubai that it had revised its agreement with the Abdullah Brothers regarding the amounts they owe to Damas.

One key item is the fixing of the price of the 1,840,250 grams of gold the Brothers stole from the Company at AED 256 million.

Presumably, this has been set so that Damas is not disadvantaged.

Setting the amount owed is a key step.  Collecting it may prove a bit more difficult.

Awal Bank Chapter 11 Filing

There's a report in AlQabas Thursday edition that Judge Groper denied Awal Bank's Chapter 11 petition.  At this point, there is nothing posted on the NY Southern District Bankruptcy Court website.  The last document there is the notice of 26 October for the hearing to be held today (27 October).

Gulf Finance House 3Q10 Financials: A Train Wreck

Studio Lévy & fils  1895
When You Turn the Corner Make Sure the Track Goes There

Get out your magnifying glasses and join me in reading the full 3Q10 financials that GFH submitted to the Dubai Financial Market Wednesday morning. Since I've got my soapbox out for a later tirade, I might as well take this opportunity to suggest to the  DFM that they invest a few dirhams in upgrading their electronic imaging system for faxes they receive. There really is no good reason in this day and age that the output cannot by A4 size.

Looking at the financials we see from Note 12, that GFH's US$115 million loss was primarily caused by provisions. Some US$101 million of them. But not provisions for investments. Rather US$60.5 million for an investment banking service receivable. And US$36 million from the sale of investments. I guess if one sells assets of "volatile" quality, one might expect some "volatility" in the receivables from the sales.

That being said, GFH has continued to maintain in its Other Assets the US$134 million "magical asset provision" and US$161.8 million in "Financing to Projects".

Another unfortunate trend is operating income which is running US$60.7 million negative for the first nine months of 2010 as compared to US$36.7 million for the comparable period the previous year. This is due to a collapse in revenues. On the cost side GFH has actually done quite nicely in bringing costs down.  But, if one can't pay the light bills from operations, it's hard to see a bright future.

As a result of the net loss, GFH's CAR has slipped below the 12% minimum set by the CBB. In the financials, KPMG coyly states in Note 2: 

"Further, the capital adequacy ratio of the Group as at 30 September 2010 was below the minimum required by the regulatory ratio …"

No quantification is given. We don't know if GFH just missed the ratio and has a CAR of 11.99%. Or, if it's CAR is 1.9%. You might think that the auditors would consider it important to quantify this shortfall. It certainly is a bit of "material" information that stakeholders would like to know. And more importantly should know.

If like me that's what you think, you're disappointed by KPMG's apparent lack of action on this point. They were silent on this topic. And they did not force GFH to disclose this information in a note to the financials. It's unclear if this is due to desire not to embarrass its client. Or slavish adherence to some accountant's taqlid as to the wording used for "emphasis of matter".

Note to Central Bank of Bahrain: It might be a good idea to specify in Module PD that when the CAR regulatory threshold is breached, the Licensee state the resulting ratio with details of the calculation. And if anyone from the CBB is reading this, I'd reiterate my earlier suggestion that Module PD be amended to require that Licensees report on the BSE the more detailed of (a) what Module PD requires and (b) what they are required to report on other exchanges. There is no reason that Bahraini investors should get second rate incomplete information which is available to investors in Dubai or elsewhere.

We don't have all the information required to calculate GFH's CAR at 30 September 2010. But we can make some estimates which should give a pretty good directional sense of the CAR.

The Table below summarizes these:

	30-Jun-10	Case A	Case B
Regulatory Capital	US$   363,220	US$   248,220	US$   114,229
Total RWA	US$2,811,417	US$2,683,417	US$2,549,417
CAR	12.92%	9.25%	4.48%

Notes & Assumptions:

1. 30 June 2010 CAR is as per GFH's Basel II Pillar 3 Disclosure. 
2. The key assumption is that there is no real significant change in Regulatory Capital or Total Risk Weighted Assets (Credit, Market and Operational Risk) except for the adjustments specified in the two "cases". These adjustments are made from the 30 June figures reflected above. This is a simplifying assumption so the ratios derived will not be exact but should be "close enough" to get a good sense. 
3. Case A: US$115,000 (the 3Q10 loss) is deducted from Regulatory Capital and US$128,000 is deducted from Total RWA at 100%. 
4. Case B: US$134,000 (the "magical asset" provision) is deducted from both Regulatory Capital and Total RWA. And again at 100%.

And if you have any doubt about the realisable value of any of GFH's other assets, like those Project Financings which may very well be to the same firms whose financial condition caused their bankers to pull the GFH guarantee, it's not too much of a stretch before the CAR is negative.

The results are to say the least not encouraging. It's hard to see how even the "Prettiest" words could convince even the "wisest" of investors to put equity into this firm.

The Gulf Daily News is reporting that they've seen a GFH "Investor Presentation" in which GFH states it intends to sell assets to raise cash to pay back some US$90 million in debt maturing next year or restructure that debt. In further discussions with GFH, the GDN was told that other options being considered were an IPO of some of its mega projects (North Africa and India) or perhaps giving creditors land, shares or other of GFH's highly valuable assets. There is a danger with the latter for creditors. As the choice assets are stripped from GFH's balance sheet, remaining creditors are left with lesser ones to settle their debts. The only option not mentioned here was putting a brick from one of these projects under EJ's pillow in the hopes that the Real Estate Jinn would put US$500 million under his pillow.

It's hard to imagine a "wise" creditor putting funds into GFH. 

And it takes a bit of "optimism" to see a real future for GFH. 

You can find more posts on GFH by using the Label "Gulf Finance House".

Gulf Finance House 3Q10 Financials: GFH Continues to "Turn Corner". But Unfortunately Into Oncoming Car

Not sure how GFH will spin this, but they've announced a loss of US$115.1 million for the 3Q10 making the loss for the first nine months of the year US$162.8 million.   And, no, the optimistic US$134 million of reimbursement rights remains on the balance sheet.  So this loss is due to other problems,.  The reimbursement problem has yet to be acknowledged - which means of course that GFH is in a "world of trouble".

As a result, Shareholders' Equity is at US$303 million, well below the US$400 million TNW covenant.  As well as breaching the Central Bank of Bahrain minimum  CAR requirement.

More later when I have time.

Footnote for the Central Bank of Bahrain.
As usual, GFH has released the absolute minimum on the BSE, while releasing its entire 3Q financial on the DFM.   It's unclear why Bahraini investors should be disadvantaged.  Perhaps time to revise the regulation to require that if a firm is required to disclose more on another exchange, then it disclose the same on the BSE.

I will make no comment about the ethics of a firm that engages in such selective disclosure, particularly one that claims to follow the teachings of a noble religion.

Another Cut from Kawalis (Al Qabas)

Another gem from Kawalis.

- سئل مدير استقال من شركة استثمارية غير مدرجة عن ملايين دنانير طارت خلال عهده، فأجاب بأنها رشاوى دفعت لجهات حكومية!

That's funny I'm sure all my Gulf friends and those from the Levant and parts further West told me that Rashwa was a singer.  Sort of like Nancy but more modestly dressed and without all her provactive gyrations.  And so suitable for performances even for the self-proclaimed religious. "Discreet yet beautiful" was how one described her.  I'm guessing Rashawi is the name of her new band.  Perhaps like the Spice Girls. But definitely more modestly dressed as I said above.

Translation:  "A manager who resigned from an unlisted investment company was asked about the millions of dinars which "flew away" during his tenure.  He responded that they were bribes (rashawi plural of rashwa) paid to government departments."  

Pretty clear to me that this isn't an item about Kuwait.

3-0

Getting generous in he gets older?

New Addition to List of Interesting Blogs - Dubai Nights

Another addition to our list of interesting blogs.   Dubai Nights.

More on Awal Bank Chapter 11 Filing

Updated for comments on Chapter 11.

Here are some additional details on Awal's filing.

1. The case number assigned by the Bankruptcy Court of the Southern District of Manhattan is 10-15518-alg.  Awal's previous Chapter 15 filing has case number 09-15923alg.
2. As indicated by the "alg" at the end of the case number, Justice Allan L. Gropper has been assigned this case.
3. The Bank is being represented by Brown Rudnick LLP who filed the Voluntary Petition for Bankruptcy under Chapter 11.
4. The filing was authorized by Awal's Administrator, Charles Russell, LLP.  Presumably before proceeding CR obtained the no objection of the Central Bank of Bahrain who appointed them.  I think this is a pretty strong indication that the CBB has decided to proceed with the liquidation of the Bank.  Note:  A Chapter 11 proceeding is of course a reorganization not a liquidation.  The latter is Chapter 7.  Chapter 11 allows the debtor to propose a plan for dealing with its existing obligations - either payment in full, in part, conversion to equity, etc.  Post implementation the debtor continues as a going entity (e.g., Continental Airlines).  So what I mean here is that the CBB has decided to proceed knowing it will cause the lenders some pain.  That in turn means the situation is beyond repair.  And that the Bahraini authorities have decided to "bite the bullet" and take the reputational damage that will come from such action. 

As part of its filing, Awal Bank made the following statements:

1. After the payment of various expenses including that of administration, there will be no funds available for distribution to unsecured creditors.
2. Estimated creditors are between 50 and 99. 
3. US assets are above US$50 million up to and including US$100 million.
4. Estimated debts (worldwide) are over US $1 billion.  (This is the largest amount provided on the Bankruptcy Filing Form).

As required on the Filing Form, the debtor lists its top twenty unsecured creditors.  No amounts are provided though.

Here they are in the order of appearance on the Form:

1. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Abu Dhabi
2. Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, Abu Dhabi
3. AlGosaibi Money Exchange, Saudi Arabia
4. Bank of Montreal, Canada
5. Bayerische Hypo-und Vereinsbank, United Kingdom (London Branch)
6. Bayerische Landesbank/Bayern LB Germany
7. Boubyan Bank, Kuwait
8. Calyon Corporate and Investment Bank, United Kingdom
9. Commercial Bank of Kuwait, Kuwait
10. Commercial Bank of Qatar, Qatar
11. Commerzbank Global Equities AG (formerly Dresdner Bank) Germany
12. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, United Kingdom (London Branch)
13. Fortis Bank, Belgium
14. Gulf International Bank, Bahrain
15. HSBC, Australia
16. HSBC, United States (NY Branch)
17. HSH Nordbank AG, German
18. JP Morgan, United Kingdom (London Branch)
19. Kuwait Finance House (Liquidity Management House), Kuwait
20. The International Banking Corporation, Bahrain

If you're wondering about TIBC (which also filed under Chapter 15 in 2009) taking a similar action, a  court hearing is scheduled under their case next week Tuesday (26 October).  Stay tuned.

Awal Bank FIles for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy in US

In terms of recovery all venues are likely to be highly inconvenient.

Update:  See subsequent post.

According to news reports on Bloomberg, on 21 October Awal Bank filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the Southern District Court of Manhattan listing assets of between US$50 million to US$100 million and liabilities of  more than US$1 billion. 

That would not seem to augur well for creditors.  Though it should come as no surprise. 

Earlier Awal had filed under Chapter 15 of the US Bankruptcy Code.  That Chapter is used when a company asserts its proceedings are taking place under a foreign jurisdictions laws and procedures broadly equivalent (in fairness) to US procedures.   It will be interesting to see what arguments were advanced for moving the proceedings to the USA.  Forum non conveniens?

Global Investment House Pays Another US$72.5 Million on its Restructured Debt

Global announced that value 21 October 2010 it had paid down another US$72.5 million of principal on its restructured debt.

With that payment it will have paid down 8.8% of its total debt.  It has nine quarters to pay the rest.  A journey of one thousand miles begins with a single step.

Global Investment House - Better Times Coming. Capital Increase in 2011?

Au or FeS₂?

Also from the Reuters Middle East Investment Summit, Ms. Maha Al Ghunaim noted that:

1. Global's performance for 2H10 will be better than 1H10.   (Global lost KD34.4 million in 1H10 compared to KD98.6   in 1H09.
2. The Company continues to monitor its costs and further reductions are in store.
3. It expects to begin discussions with unnamed strategic investors in 1Q11 to discuss a capital raising.

Gulf Bank Kuwait - On the Mend. No More Loans to Saudis.

A banker's memory is a wonderful thing.  
Even the most painful experiences can be forgotten. 

Michel Accad gave an interview at the Reuters Middle East Investment Summit in which he made the following points:

1. 3Q10 is the turning point in GB's two year strategy to rebuild.  
2. Each subsequent quarter will be a relative improvement over the previous.  
3. By 3Q11 the rebuilding will be done (apparently one quarter ahead of time) and the bank will move to strengthen its income generation or its geographic coverage.
4. The goal is to increase local market share from today's 12% to some 16% in five years.
5. After 3Q10, the Bank will not need to provision as much but will continue to do so for precautionary reasons (rather than need).
6. The Bank has decided not to make any loans to Saudi clients for at least 3 years.  No doubt a reaction to its troubles with AlGosaibi and Saad Groups.  
7. Instead it will, however, make loans to foreign investors for their projects in Kuwait. And no doubt concentrate on its high quality Kuwaiti clients.
8. As of 3Q10, the Bank has successfully reduced its non performing loans below 20% of the total portfolio.  That's a lot of "Saudi" clients, it appears.

International Investment Group - Update from Delegate on IIG Funding Sukuk (Hint: No Good News)

Deutsche Bank as the Delegate on the above transaction issued an announcement on Nasdaq Dubai advising that:

1. IIG had advised that it was awaiting ministerial approval of its new board so that they could vote to release the KPMG study to certificateholders who had signed a confidentiality agreement.
2. The Paying Agent advised it had not received the funds for the 12 October payment.
3. Certificateholders reminder of Dissolution Events and that they need to vote to accelerate.
4. That IIG has not honored the claim served under the Purchase Undertaking.
5. That the Delegate is not obliged to take actions unless indemnified to its satisfaction.  Apparently, it has not been.

National Bank of Umm Al Qaiwain 3Q10 Financials - Update on Global US$250 Million Deposit Dispute

NBUQ released its 3Q10 financials earlier today.  (Yes, I'm still stubbornly using that abbreviation even though their stock symbol is NBQ  But I will alternate today between the two to partially satisfy those who have "complained".)

The major focus is as usual on the dispute over the US$250 million "deposit" (if you're Global Investment House) or the "prepayment" (if you're NBUQ).  As you'll recall the dispute turns over whether an MOU between the two parties was a binding contract obliging GIH to buy securities convertible into NBQ equity.  Yet another example of poor transaction structuring and legal documentation involving this instrument - which has been a rather costly mistake for purchasers in the past.

You can find more on this topic by using the labels "Convertible Bonds" and "National Bank of Umm Al Qaiwain".

The relevant notes in their financials are Other Assets (Note 13) and Other Liabilities (Note 17).  

As per Note 17, NBQ is holding the funds in a non interest bearing account in the amount of AED918.25 million (equal to US$250 million at the FX rate as of 30 September).  But as you'll see from Note 13, it has deposited AED1,034 million with the First Instance Court of Dubai pursuant to an order from that Court.  

The difference (just under AED 116 million) is presumably interest and perhaps legal costs for Global.   The amount represents a little over one quarter's net income for NBUQ.

The Appeals Court is scheduled to hear NBQ's appeal on 8 November 2010.   The 29 September session adjourned without taking a decision and was designed to let NBQ object to both the decision in Global's favor and the interest payment.

You'll also note that in Other Assets, NBQ is showing some AED82.7 million in "split deals".  Shades of Mashreqbank and its deals with Awal Bank and with TIBC.

The Sharp Tongue of Al Qabas

Sometimes the Pen is a Sword

Here's today's Kawalis from Al Qabas:

- مدير في البورصة اصيب باحباط شديد بعد تعيين لم يكن يتوقعه اذ كان مطمئنا لوعود.. لم تتحقق!
- مسؤول نفطي استعجل اصدار بيان عن «انجازات» وصفه البعض بأنه بمنزلة لفت نظر الى من يسعون الى اقصائه في تعيينات مرتقبة.
- طلبت السفارة الاميركية السيرة الذاتية لمدير البورصة الجديد حامد السيف.. ولدى السؤال عن السبب قال طالب السيرة: نطلب سيَراً كثيراً من وقت لآخر

I love the last bit attributed to an unknown person at US Embassy Kuwait who when asked why the Embassy wanted the biography/CV of Mr. Hamid AlSaif, the newly appointed Director of the KSE, said, "We ask for a lot of biographies from time to time".  

The first two items deal with the difficult job market in Kuwait.  The first someone who was promised the position of Director of the KSE and didn't get it.  The second an oil executive who prepared a list of accomplishments designed to get him a new job (expected appointments).

Kuwaiti Investment Companies Blame Central Bank for Delay in 2009 Financials

AlQabas reports that unnamed listed Kuwaiti investment companies have launched a sharp attack against the Central Bank claiming that they provided their financials four months ago, responded to requests from the Central Bank for clarifications three months ago and have heard nothing.

Since CBK approval is required to release financial reports and since financial reports are a condition for the holding of the required annual shareholders' meeting, these meetings have not taken place exposing the companies to fines from the MOIC.  

The article also notes that where another company has a significant ownership stake in a "delayed" company its own financials are delayed because the first company's auditors don't have enough information to complete their audit work.

While Al Qabas did not name the companies, according to the KSE, the following companies have been suspended for failure to provide 2009 financials:

1. The Investment Dar, last financial released 31 December 2008.  It is therefore missing the quarterly reports from 2009 plus FYE 2009 plus the first two quarters of 2010.
2. International Leasing and Investment, last financial released 30 September 2008.  So it is missing FYE 2008, the first three quarters and FYE for 2009 plus the first two quarters of 2010.
3. Abraj Holding, last financial released 31 July 2009 so it is missing FYE 2009 (October fiscal year end) and the first two quarters of 2010. (Technically Abraj Holding is not an "investment firm", though it may look like one from its activities).

Perhaps, it's a question of whether they (CBK) believe what they been given.

Footnote:  As if "poor" Abraj didn't have enough problems already, a group of shareholders has reportedly written to the MOIC complaining that in contravention of the law two government employees are member of the board:  one gentleman who works in the general administration of the fire department and the second who works in handicapped citizens affairs.

Dubai Sovereign Bond: "Pay to Play"

An article in the FT today reports that bankers were told that lead underwriters on Dubai's recent US$1.25 billion sovereign bond were told that in order to be considered they needed to make loans to the Emirate.  Supposedly a two-year loan for some US$300 million priced at Libor +300 bps.

A couple of observations.

First, this is a pretty standard request, particularly from a client having a bit of a problem.  Just as the good banker is taught to seek to increase his "share of a customer's wallet" in good times, borrowers especially those currently out of favor in the market look for their bankers to be understanding in more difficult times.  In both cases there's a lot of talk about the importance of relationships.  How strong they are.  Sentiments said with no doubt more sincerity than the average politician's promise.  But just as meaningful for that.

Second, Dubai's Sovereign Bond was "priced to place".   Dubai could not afford to have this transaction fail. With a bond, a low price means the interest rate was set higher than it needed to be.   Pretty much the same rationale as IPO pricing.  Under price the security by a bit so that the offer is successful.  And then  as the share rises in initial trading, you've got a good story for the company and the investors.    

I've seen estimates that Dubai's pricing may have been as much as 0.75% to 1.0% higher than required.  The underwriters who "sat" on a substantial portion of their allocations may not too far in the future have large capital gains - though probably not until after issuance of the DEWA bond.  If they've placed it with clients,  as some will have, then they will derive some relationship benefits there and can use those to secure additional business from those clients.    Just as the investment firm that can allocate IPOs to its customers gets something back.

For HSBC and Standard Chartered with major domestic operations in the UAE, being seen as a good friend is a useful thing.  If indeed SC's threat to move its corporate headquarters to the more tax and regulation friendly shores of Dubai is more than mere posturing, another good reason.

Finally, there's probably also a very hard headed calculation here - that it's going to be some time before Dubai regains full market access.  Amounts are likely to remain limited  and increasing only slowly.  Pricing will probably improve even slower.  As the thinking goes, there are opportunities for profit here.

And of course, there is one other factor in play:  banker and investor ADD.

Do bankers have short memories?

Excuse me, could you repeat that, I've forgotten what you asked. 

2-1 (Bit of a Scare There)