Gulf Finance House - Ted Pretty Sees Pretty Good Times Coming

Al Watan has an interview with GFH"s Group CEO Ted Pretty.  They noted that he was a bit more optimistic with them than with the Western media he had met with.  Perhaps, things have improved.  Perhaps, it's a bit of market segmentation.

Here are the main points. My comments are in italics and contained within parentheses.

1. GFH faces difficulties but will regain health at the beginning of 2011.
2. In the past we bit off more than we could chew.
3. The current strategy is to focus on existing investments and projects, complete these and realize value. (AA:  More on strategy later this is not the complete picture).
4. GFH took action early and is starting to see the benefits.  Our 1H10 loss is smaller than 2009's.  Because of its wise actions, the bank is well positioned for profitability and growth in 2011.
5. GFH's 2010 priorities are:  restoring its operating model, reestablishing sources of income, cost control and rescheduling debt.
6. Going forward business activities will comprise as well raising financing, providing consulting services, managing assets, and the development of private capital (private equity), particularly in forming Islamic financial institutions.  He then noted that GFH had raised some US$2.5 billion in capital for a variety of firms:  First Energy Bank, Khaleej Commercial Bank, Bank Q Invest, First Leasing Bank, Asian Finance House, Arab Finance House and others.
7. He said that new capital is not required for and  will not be used to repay debts.   There's no need because the WestLB syndicate and LMC syndicate have been rescheduled.  (AA:  No doubt wishing to reassure investors.  The proceeds of the 2009 new capital were used to repay debt).

He also commented that fear was depressing economic and market activity.  However, he noted that several countries had proven that they were able to restart their economies without being dependent on recovery of the US economy.  And called for SWFs to do more to support and develop economic activity in the region noting that the average investor had a predilection to invest in Europe or the USA.

If you believe his pitch, this would be an excellent time to buy GFH shares.  They're selling below par.  Way below par.  US$0.125 on the BSE versus a par value of US$0.33.  The upside potential is unlimited as they say.

And since GFH has yet to publish its Basel II Pillar 3 disclosures as of 30 June 2010 as mandated by the Central Bank of Bahrain, many of you may be forgiven for assuming this means the bank has no risks to report - which, if true, could be a very positive "buy" signal.

MEED MENA Real Estate Report

حقل الأحلام الكويت

If you build it, he may not come after all.

 

AlQabas has a summary of a recent Middle East Economic Digest ("MEED") report.

Pretty much the report can be summarized in the table below.

CITY	Median Office Rent Per Square Meter	Average Commercial Vacancy	Median Residential Monthly Rent
Abu Dhabi	$51	3%	$3,500
Amman	$16	10%	$   800
Cairo	$39	0%	$   800
Doha	$50	20%	$3,000
Dubai	$38	38%	$1,900
Jeddah	$25	10%	$1,000
Kuwait	$42	40%	$2,000
Manama	$24	10%	$2,000
Muscat	$23	5%	$1,110
Riyadh	$33	20%	$1,500

 

As mentioned in the article, it's important to remember that these are median rates for a city. There may be more than one market in a city. So, for example, Shaykh Zayed Road may be booming in Dubai with strong occupancy and rental rates, while other areas are really depressed.

On that latter score, I'd invite my Arabic reading audience to comment if I've translated the terms معدل and متوسط correctly. I'm reading these to be Arabic for the statistical terms "mean" and "median" respectively.

And finally anyone who'd care to comment about the rental rates.

HSBC: “No Provision Relief for Kuwaiti Banks Until 2012”

AlQabas published a summary of a recent HSBC research report in its Sunday issue.

Here's a quick summary of the main points:

1. HSBC notes the dramatic growth in distressed loans at Kuwaiti banks – from 5.3% in 2008 to 9.7% in 2009. 
2. And predicts that the banks will continue to make substantial provisions this year and next only reaching a normal level of provisions in 2012. 
3. That being said, there should be a recovery in ROE for 2010.
4. Banks in Abu Dhabi and Kuwait were the worst affected among GCC banks. However, Kuwait has average provisions equal to 10% of total loans while Abu Dhabi only 4%. 
5. A concentration on loans to real estate, construction, and investment companies is responsible for the decline in the value of Kuwaiti bank assets. 
6. Real estate exposure:  Given the absence of Kuwaiti government spending on infrastructure or development projects during the boom years (2005-2008) credit was to the private sector largely to individuals and unlisted companies. The focus was on commercial, residential and investment real estate. Listed real estate companies only account for 13% of the total of such loans. 
7. Investment firm exposure:  Loans to investment companies were KD2.8 billion with KD1.2 billion to conventional firms and KD1.5 billion to "Islamic" firms.  The loans granted were largely used to fund investments in real estate and regional stock markets (thus increasing the lenders' total exposure to these sectors). 85% of investment companies' assets are in the GCC as per the IMF. Since the crisis hit, banks have seen their loan security drop by at least 50% as per HSBC's estimates, though it does note that in the absence of transparency the true impact is not known. 
8. Consumer loans:  These extensions of credit are believed to be of better quality because  they are secured by rentals and salaries. HSBC notes that most Kuwaitis are employed by the Government, the implicit presumption being that their incomes are secure.
   

There were two interesting tables accompanying the article, which I've reproduced below.

First, Kuwaiti bank exposure to real estate as a percentage of shareholders' equity.

Amounts in KD millions.

Bank	Real Estate & Construction ("REE")	Shareholders Equity	REE % of Equity
NBK	1,450	1,871	78%
CBK	733	440	167%
Burgan	976	422	232%
KFH	1,591	1,537	194%
Gulf	1,495	391	382%

Second, Kuwaiti bank exposure to investment companies.

Amounts in KD millions.

Bank	Exposure	% of Total	Shareholders' Equity	Exposure as % of Equity
Gulf	486	18%	391	80%
Burgan	190	7%	422	45%
CBK	269	10%	440	61%
NBK	216	5%	1,871	12%
KFH	944	34%	1,537	61%
Others	658	26%	----	----
Total	2,763	100%	----	----

 

From the above one can draw some conclusions on relative business models and underwriting standards.  

Of course without knowing the details of the loans and in particular the security obtained, these can be only preliminary. 


As usual, the pattern seems to be repeating itself.  One bank is distinguished by its prudence.  And some of the same names seem to be pushing the envelope. 

2 -3

Arggh!   Or should I say "nutters"?

Presssure on Rent Levels in Bahrain -If You Build It, They Might Not Come

The Gulf Daily News reports that rentals have fallen across the board in the retail, residential, office and industrial sectors.

Martin Cooper of DTZ Middle East is quoted as saying:

"The region has woken up to the fact to only give the people what they can afford and not recklessly invest in projects they cannot afford or those which are of no use," he told the GDN.

Often one wakes from a nightmare only to fall back asleep again.

Nakheel: CDG Lawsuit Will Not Delay Deal with Trade Creditors

Nakheel has issued a press release (to Reuters) stating that CDG's lawsuit will not delay its reaching a settlement with trade creditors.  It also said that it expected to prevail against CDG noting that it disputed the entire claim and had counterclaims of its own against CDG.

Nakheel said it has approximately 85 percent of acceptances, by value, for its restructuring deal and is "well on target to achieve its 95 percent acceptance of all payables and claims within the near future," according to the statement sent to Reuters late Tuesday

Mashreqbank v AlGosaibi - Al Sanea's Forum Non Conveniens Motion Successful

Above Main Entrance to NY Supreme Court

Looks like Mr. Al Sanea is continuing his run of victories in the NY Courts.  

As you'll recall when Mashreqbank filed suit against AHAB in the NY Supreme Court, AHAB had Mr. Al Sanea added as a third party defendant.

July 29 Judge Lowe of the NY Supreme Court ruled in favor of Mr. Al Sanea's request that due to forum non conveniens he and Awal Bank be removed as third party defendants. 

While Mashreqbank is appealing, based on the pattern of judgments in the NY Supreme Court, their chances of obtaining a reversal of the ruling would appear to be somewhere between slim and none.   Wonder if AHAB will now find NY an inconvenient forum and file a motion.  There seems to be lots of precedents for this.

(As before, the email notification from the NY Supreme Court is a bit late in arriving.)

You can find earlier posts on this topic by using the label "Mashreqbank".

The NY Supreme Court Case Reference # is 601650/2009.

4-1

Some victories are particularly sweet.

Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait v AlSanea & Saad Trading - NY Case Dismissed Forum Non Conveniens

A Rather Inconvenient Place After All

Judge Richard Love III of the Supreme Court of the State of New York decided last July that New York was indeed a forum non conveniens and so dismissed ABK's suit against Mr. Al Sanea and Saad Trading, Contracting and Financial Services Company.

(In case you're wondering why the delayed posting, while the judgment was electronically filed 11 August, I didn't get an email until today).

I suspect the new venue will turn out to be much much more convenient for Mr. Al Sanea.  Under AA's law of the conversation of legal energy, that may make it much much less convenient for ABK.  Such is life.

You can find the judgment as Document #28 at the NY Supreme Court's website under Case # 602487/2009.

If you use the tag "Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait" you will find earlier posts on this topic.

Al Safat Investment Kuwait - More Detail on 1H10 KD1.1 Million Loss

Additional detail on ASIK's 1H10 financial performance via an article in Al Watan quoting ASIK's Vice Chairman Mohammad Ali Al Naqi.

While the Company did indeed have KD4 million in profit on the sale by one of its subsidiaries of an investment (in the PRC), this was overwhelmed by mark to markets on Kuwaiti shares.  The VC noted the significant decline on the KSE in 2Q10 as well as KD2.48 million of precautionary provisions on   أرصدة مدينة  .

I'm translating these as "debit balances" and presume they relate to receivables of some sort as opposed to investments.   And I'd certainly welcome any comments from readers who either would like to confirm or amend that translation.

Earlier post on ASIK's 2010 performance here.

月餅

When the moon is full, mankind is one.

It's that time of year again.  Though for some of us it seems more like mid Summer than mid Autumn.

Note to the authorities:  AA's mooncakes have no hidden messages.

The Investment Dar - Dubai Creditor Meeting

TID held a creditors' meeting in Dubai 21 September.  Both Al Watan and Al Qabas have accounts.

The Al Watan (Taamir Hamaad) article is fairly bland - no fireworks.  Adnan Al Musallam  is quoted as reiterating TID's firm desire to repay its debts, adding that the reality of the financial crisis made it incumbent  on everyone the obligation to work together to reach the restructuring.   

He also proposed the formation of a holding company capitalized at between KD300 million to KD400 million - to be administered by the banks and investors - as the vehicle to settle TID's debts.  The rationale appears to be to ensure compliance with the Central Bank of Kuwait's new rules on investment companies.  Apparently to shift the debts off TID's balance sheet along with the assets - thus  improving TID's performance under the CBK's  three ratio tests.  He said that he had requested the executive and legal management of the Company to study this matter.

On the other hand Al Qabas (Mohammad Sha'baan) has a more fiery story (not unexpected) of creditor "anger".  In the Al Qabas version, some creditors are on the verge of a confrontation with TID and its Board over the following:

1. A belief that parties outside the formal management/Board structure of TID are really making the decisions
2. That the Company is deliberately stalling progress
3. That the creditors have been overly patient during the past two years but have gotten nothing from the Company
4. Board Members are deliberately missing meetings with creditors and provoking confrontations in order to evade responding to creditor requests.  A central point is the creditors' demand that they be kept fully in the picture as to what is going on at TID, including efforts to comply with the Central Bank's new regulations for investment companies
5. That some creditors are prepared to bring legal action against all parties - including against the Creditors' Coordinating Committee,  if there is an attempt to impose the restructuring plan without 100% creditor acceptance or acceptance by an absolute majority of creditors.   AA:  This is a puzzling statement.  It's pretty clear by now that all creditors are not going to accept the plan.  And equally that the whole point of recourse to the FSL is to cram down dissident creditors.  Al Qabas' informed sources may be less informed than they claim.
6. That TID has apparently stopped its program of salary reduction for senior management and that the salary scale has reverted to what it was in the boom years.  AA:  This is similar to the earlier theme about creditor anger over a raise and bonus for a member of senior management.  A neat way of attempting to finesse this is to eliminate a reduction and say that technically the fellow is not getting a raise but rather his salary is being restored to what it was prior to the reduction.  Unclear if this is what is going on. 
7. That some Board Members through related companies they control, companies which are partners with TID in certain assets, are gaming the realization of assets.  AA:  This is the fundamental creditor fear - that asset disposals will be gamed to reduce the banks' realization proceeds.  Not an unreasonable fear in the land of egregious related party transactions.

Two quite different accounts, though it should be noted that Al Qabas is speaking about creditor discontent which might manifest itself in the future not battles raging at present.

There's a creditors meeting today in Kuwait for those creditors who missed Dubai.  Hopefully, more detail will be forthcoming.

It's no surprise that creditors' patience is wearing thin.  It's been over two years.  The Central Bank is still reviewing whether to allow TID to use the FSL as cover for its rescheduling.  TID has yet to release any 2009 financials - either quarterly or fiscal year 2009.

Lenders Selling Saad Group Loans

Remedial Lending Class

Asa Fitch at The National reports on some loan sales by Saad lenders.

This makes perfect sense. 

It's highly unlikely that Saad or AHAB, for that matter, are suddenly going to settle their debts.  It's likely that there will be considerable more time before a deal is struck.  And then repayment is likely to be painfully slow over a long period.

It makes perfect sense for lenders with modest sized tickets to exit now.  End the uncertainty.  Devote resources to other more productive efforts than negotiating a rescheduling and then tracking the performance of a weak credit.

The sad thing is that bankers have ADD so that any lessons learned are remembered for only a short period making the cost of tuition not effective.

DFSA Calls for Audit Improvements

Apparently heeding the comments of  The Rageful Cynic on this blog,  Paul Koster, CEO of the DFSA called for improvements in local auditing as reported by Tom Arnold at The National.

“Are auditors doing enough in that respect? I don’t think so,” said Mr Koster. “I think one of the key areas where auditors right now can gain momentum in the level of trust they provide to the financial market is to increase the level of scrutiny and scepticism in regard to the judgement of management in valuations.”

There's the usual commentary as well about the  need for auditors to get more training so they can understand complex financial instruments.

But the most telling quote of all is at the end of the article.

Auditors speaking to The National have previously accused Gulf companies of using similar accounting practices to mask bad assets and called for greater safeguards to avoid such methods.

Accounting in the GCC is based on IFRS which is a principles and not a rules based approach (the latter being the system in the USA).

Under a rules-based system, the accountant and auditor merely ticks the boxes.  If enough boxes are ticked, the transaction passes the test.  Form may over rule substance.

Under a principles-based accounting system, accountants and auditors are to look behind the form of a transaction to the substance.  The Lehman Repo 105 was a very clear scheme to get around the rules.

That local auditors are whining about violations and doing nothing to stop their clients is a very clear indication that the problem isn't training.  It isn't greater skepticism (or scepticism).  It isn't a lack of scrutiny.  

Very simply put, it's a lack of professional ethics.

Construction Delivery Group Files AED49 Million Suit Against Nakheel

Bradley Hope over at The National reports that CDG has filed an AED million suit against Nakheel at the special Dubai World Tribunal at the DIFC.

Here's an extract from the claim filed by CDG (Dubai World Special Tribunal Case DWT-0008-2010).

The DWT website is at www.dubaiworldtribunal.ae.

1.The Claimant claims against the First Defendant and/or the Second Defendant and/or the Third Defendant  damages, monies due, interest, legal fees, costs and expenses.

2.The Claimant's contractual and non-contractual claims arise out of and in connection with a contract (PJ-338) and/or contracts for the provision of Facilities Management Services (comprising Mobilisation Phase Services and Operational Phase Services in respect of 1,224 villas and 114 “Canal Cove homes” located on the Palm Jumeirah, Dubai) between approximately March 2007 and January 2009.

3.The Claimant Claims:

(i)  AED 24,514,464.49  Mobilisation Phase: unpaid fees to 31 January 2009
(ii) AED 2,608,347.75  Mobilisation Phase: loss of profit 01 February 2009 – 30 June 2010 
(iii) AED 6,001,899.58  Operational Phase: unpaid fees to 31 December 2008
(iv) AED 1,369,200.00 Operational Phase: loss of profit 01 January 2009 – 31May 2009
(v) AED 4,097,925.00 Operational Phase: Maintenance Services; fixed running costs for villas exceeding 400;  01 June 2008 - 31 December 2008
(vi) AED 982,534.00 Loss and damage: office, plant and equipment
(vii) AED 103,235.69 Loss and damage: emergency stores
(viii) AED 1,095,149.87 Loss of main office overhead contribution
(ix) AED 679,023.69 De-mobilisation costs on wrongful termination
(x) AED - To be advised  Loss of the use of the Claimant's Performance Security (AED 1,569,460.00) for the period 10 February 2009 – 07 October 2009

Interest pursuant to Articles 88 and 76 of Federal Law No. 18 of 1993: the Claimant claims compound interest on the above amounts at 12% per annum from the date such sums accrued to the date of payment, alternatively at such rate and for such period as the Tribunal deems fit.

As Bradley notes the process and outcome of the case will be closely watched to see how the Special Tribunal works.  As well, whether the ST gives smaller creditors a way around the rescheduling.  It would seem that CDG perhaps does not intend to contract with Nakheel again.

Al Safat Investment Kuwait: 1H10 Loss KD1.1 Million

Al Safat Investment issued its 1H10 financials on the KSE today (as usual Arabic only text which is below).

The headlines:

1. A loss for the 1H10 of KD1.1 million and for 2Q10 a loss of KD2.3 million.
2. Comparable figures for 2009 were KD0.05 million for 1H09 and a profit of KD2.0 million for 2Q09.
3. Shareholders' equity stood at KD109 million versus KD136.5 million a year earlier.
4. Current Assets KD56.9 million
5. Total Assets KD177.1 million
6. Current Liabilities KD56.6 million (Positive working capital!)
7. Total Liabilities of KD67.9 million.
8. Total Equity of KD109 million.
9. Don't have an explanation for the KD154,300 difference between Total Assets and Total Liabilities plus Total Equity.  Treasury Shares?

What's interesting is that earlier ASIK had announced  that one of its subsidiaries had concluded a successful exit from a holding in the PRC which would give a profit of KD4.25 million  which would be reflected in ASIK's 2Q10 results.  That suggests that there were total expenses of at least KD6.55 million in 2Q10, assuming no other revenue. Mark-to-markets or provisions, pehaps? 

[9:8:50]  بلغت (خسارة) (الصفاة) (1) مليون د.ك لل6 أشهر المنتهية في 30-06-2010‏
يعلن سوق الكويت للأوراق المالية أن شركة الصفاة للاستثمار (الصفاة)‏
حصلت على موافقة بنك الكويت المركزي على بياناتها المالية المرحلية للفترة ‏
المنتهية في 30-06-2010، يوم الخميس الموافق 16-09-2010 ،
وفقا لما يلي:‏
البند     ال3 أشهر المنتهية في 30-06-10     ال6 أشهر المنتهية في 30-06-10‏
الربح (خسارة)(د.ك)           (2.283.982)               (1.052.962) ‏
ربحية(خسارة)السهم (فلس كويتي) (2.95)                       (1.36) ‏
اجمالي الموجودات المتداولة                                56.860.414‏
اجمالي الموجودات                                          177.095.485‏
اجمالي المطلوبات المتداولة                                 56.566.959‏
اجمالي المطلوبات                                           67.979.802‏
ِ اجمالي حقوق المساهمين                                   108.961.399‏
بلغ اجمالي الايرادات من التعاملات مع الاطراف ذات الصلة مبلغ 342.017 د.ك
بلغ اجمالي المصروفات من التعاملات مع الاطراف ذات الصلة مبلغ 162.545 د.ك
الفترات المقارنة:‏
البند     ال3 أشهر المنتهية في 30-06-09     ال6 أشهر المنتهية في 30-06-09‏
الربح (خسارة)(د.ك)            2.008.551                    49.797 ‏
ربحية(خسارة)السهم (فلس كويتي)  2.60                          0.06‏
اجمالي الموجودات المتداولة                                66.093.906‏
اجمالي الموجودات                                          210.284.340‏
اجمالي المطلوبات المتداولة                                 38.250.324‏
اجمالي المطلوبات                                           73.726.219‏
ِ اجمالي حقوق المساهمين                                   136.532.947‏
وعليه سوف تعاد الشركة الى التداول بعد عشر دقائق من نزول الاعلان .‏

Go for the Kill: 1-1

Go for the kill.

To the Football Jinn:  I'd like to point out that I kept quiet for the canonical first three games.  It isn't supposed to work like this.

Emaar - Investment Opportunity of a Lifetime

I see on the DFM this morning that Emaar's Board has decided to sell its 200,000 treasury shares.  

You'd better jump quickly before this opportunity passes you by.

Unlike the postman, Opportunity only knocks once.

Update:  Shares sold 20 September at AED3.84 per share.

Update - Republican Senate Candidate Admits to Dabbling in Witchcraft

If you're worried, don't be.

Luckily the Republican Governor of Louisiana is a home-schooled exorcist.

Idiocy Knows No Borders: Mice with Human Brains

Hidden Camera Picture from Inside NIH Laboratories

Well, just when you thought you'd heard everything, something new pops up.

The Republican candidate (who else of course) for Senate from the great state of Delaware apparently rang the warning tocsin of a manifest danger to our nation back in 2007.  Sadly though it appears no one heeded her:

"They are -- they are doing that here in the United States. American scientific companies are cross-breeding humans and animals and coming up with mice with fully functioning human brains. So they're already into this experiment."

Now I suspect many of you out there are wondering if this could possibly be true.  I'd point out that Ms. O'Donnell made her remarks on Bill O'Reilly's show.  And if that doesn't settle the issue for you, I'm not sure what other arguments would.

One thing we can be sure of from this story though is that we have pretty conclusive proof that scientists have been successful in their efforts to cross-breed humans with mice brains.  I think Ms. O'Donnell's words speak for themselves.

You may also be wondering who "they" are.  I'd tell you but I'm pretty sure I can here the very faint "whump, whump" of the black helicopters circling overhead   I did ask the real estate agent if we were outside the range of the UN spy satellites.  She assured me we would be.  But I guess she didn't know or, perhaps, may have been in on the plot.  

 Outside my window, right now.

Additional posting may be delayed today.  I'm going to nip out to the local store.  While I did line my enormous tarboush with tin foil last week, I think it's time I put tin foil on the walls around the area in which I blog.  One can't be too safe. 

If  I don't post again, well you'll know what happened. 

And for God's sake keep your eyes open for mice on bicycles!