Sunday 14 March 2010

Saudi Arabia Capital Markets Authority Withdraws License of Ernst and Young Consulting Saudi Arabia For Cause

The Saudi CMA announced today that it had withdrawn the license of Ernst and Young Saudi Arabia Consulting.  E&YSAC had been given a license to conduct arranging and advising activities in the Kingdom.

The license was canceled due to  "مخالفتها لعدد من أحكام نظام السوق المالية ولوائحه التنفيذية."  That is, for violations of the Saudi Capital Markets Law and its implementing resolutions.

The CMA also canceled the license for Tarteeb Securities Company (also for advising and arranging activities) but this was at Tarteeb's request.

And finally the CMA fined Al-Jouf Company for Agricultural Development  SR50,000 for failing to report its Finance Director's resignation (3 July 2009) until 25 January 2010.  Here's the link to Al-Jouf's page at the Tadawul.

Global Investment House - Initial Comments on 2009 Financials


More detailed analysis will require a copy of GIH's complete 2009 financials, but here are some initial  and very quick comments.  All amounts rounded to nearest KD 1 million.

LIABILITIES & EQUITY

We'll start here because GIH's central issue is now management of its capital structure, repayment of liabilities while maintaining sufficient capital to support debt market funding (based on the assumption that GIH is a going concern and intends to continue business after repaying its debt). 
  1. Total Liabilities and Equity declined KD420 million.
  2. Total Liabilities down KD303 million.
  3. Total Equity down KD 117 million.
LIABILITIES
  1. As noted above, a KD303 million decline.
  2. GIH has changed its presentation from the original 2008 annual report and from that in its 3Q09 annual report.  Something that makes analysis a bit more difficult.  What was the change?  Previously, Wakala deposits were broken out.  KD143.5 million at 31 December 2008.  KD44.6 million at 3Q09.  I'm always a bit suspicious when presentation changes like these occur which are not caused by the implementation of new accounting standards.  What could be the reason?  Without the 2009 notes, it's not clear if all Wakala have been repaid.  But I'm guessing they have.  Looking at GIH's 3Q09 financials, we see that some KD23 million in Wakala were repaid during the first nine months of 2009 along with KD18 million in other short term borrowings for a total of KD41 million.  In the full year 2009 KD34 million of short term borrowings are shown as being repaid.  Hard to explain how GIH could unrepay roughly KD6 million (lower figure reflects impact of rounding to nearest million).  Perhaps there will be something in the notes.  What we do know looking at 31 December 2008 and 30 September 2009 is that Wakala were down some KD99 million.  Since Wakala no longer appear as a separate category, they may have been reduced to zero.  In which case KD143 million would have been repaid.  Of which it would appear only KD23 million in cash.  The rest through asset swaps.  You'll recall that GIH had borrowed some rather large unconscionable amounts from Global MENA Financial Assets.   Now if I remember things correctly, GIH said it had stopped all payments to creditors in December 2008.  So these creditors got out.  The rest of GIH's creditors are "stuck" in a multi-year restructuring.
  3. In fact on a gross basis - excluding GIH's bonds - borrowed funds have decreased some KD191 million from FYE 2008 to FYE 2009.  Repayments of only KD34 million are shown in GIH's Consolidated Cashflow Statement so the rest were either forgiven (highly unlikely) or settled via asset exchanges. 
  4. Also GIH's bonds were down some KD29 million.  This brings the decline to KD220 million.
  5. For a company with a debt standstill, it sure seems a lot of debt was "retired" during 2009.
  6. Finally "Other Liabilities" are down some KD83 million.  Looking at the 3Q09 financials, this appears to have been concentrated in Payable for Investment Properties which was down some KD63 million at 30 September 2009.  We'll have to wait for the full 2009 report to determine what were the sources of the other KD20 million.
 EQUITY 
  1. Two movements in Equity which resulted in the overall KD117 million decline.  
  2. A reduction in controlling interests share of Equity by approximately KD141 million.  This is the net loss of KD148.8 million offset by a variety of factors, primarily a KD11 million increase in fair value on available for sale assets not taken through the P&L.
  3. An increase in non controlling interests equity position by KD24 million (from KD36.3 mm to KD59.9 million).  Unclear what is behind this.  Perhaps, GIH sold shares in some of its associates to other shareholders?  There are a couple of tantalizing cash inflows in the Investing Activities section of GIH's 2009 Consolidated Cashflow Statement.  But without details its hard to say.
ASSETS
  1. Two major drops. 
  2. Financial Assets Fair Valued Through the P&L of KD173 million.
  3. KD103 million in Investments in Associates.
  4. To be looked at in more depth when full financials are available.
INCOME
  1. Without the notes, I don't see much point in spending a lot of time on revenues.  Net net they were about the same as in 2008.   A loss of more than KD40 million. The question is when GIH can turn this around.  If it is to remain a going concern, it needs to get revenues going again.  Cost cutting is only to get it so far.
  2. GIH's net income improved primarily from lower impairment provisions - roughly KD125 million lower than 2008.
  3. A few items caught my eye.  Personnel Expenses were KD12 million in 2009 versus KD7 million in 2008.  Is this separation payments?   It doesn't look like there's a footnote for this expense category, but we'll have to wait until the 2009 financials to see if there's a further explanation.  Perhaps even curiouser is the treatment of these expenses in 3Q09 financials  when PE for the first nine months of 2009 and 2008 are shown as KD 7 million and KD 15 million.
  4. Other operating expenses were KD20 million versus KD 14 million in 2008.  Cost of the restructuring?  Also a similar anomaly in 3Q09 financials where the respective numbers for the first nine months of 2009 and 2008 are shown as KD14 million and KD8 million.
  5. Also interesting is the share of the net loss attributable to non controlling shareholders.  It's 0.38% for 2009 and 1.05% for 2008.  Non controlling interests of course are not necessarily in all of GIH's in the same percentage.  From 3Q09 financials, it seems there was a turnaround in 3Q.

Global Investment House - KD 148.8 Million Loss for Fiscal 2009


GIH announced its 2009 audited annual results today.  Below is the press release on the KSE.  The English press release and the Arabic on the Bahrain Stock Exchange include extracts from the actual financial report. 

Here are the 2009 numbers followed by the 2008 comparatives in italics.
  1. Net Income KD148.826 mm (US$520.9 mm).  KD257.649 mm (US$901.8 mm) 
  2. Total Current Assets KD494.030 mm.   KD813.93 mm.
  3. Total Assets KD832.759 mm.  KD1,251.763 mm.
  4. Total Current Liabilities KD80.792 mm.   KD759.099 mm.
  5. Total Liabilities 609.981 mm.  KD912.979 mm.
  6. Shareholders' Equity KD162.853 mm.  KD303.487 mm.
As you might expect would occur right after a rescheduling, GIH's auditors have raised an emphasis of matter regarding the going-concern assumption on which the 2009 financial statements were prepared. They note that GIH's management is confident that the Company can continue its activities as a going concern.  The Auditors also call attention to the KD71.2 mm deposit which the National Bank of Umm AlQaiwain is blocking and which is the subject of a lawsuit between GIH and NBUQ.  Earlier posts on that topic here and here.

The press release also notes that the Board has decided not to distribute any cash dividends this year, which seems a wise move given the loss.  One would also expect that GIH's creditors may have had a hand in this matter - one way or the other - since no doubt they are trying to capture all cashflows for the worthy purpose of reducing their exposure. 

One other point worthy of note the CBK approved GIH's financials on 11 March.  Given the weekend, this is very prompt disclosure on GIH's part.

After another cup of Turkish coffee, I'll post some initial comments on the financials.

KSE press release below.  As usual Arabic only.

[9:25:37]  مجلس ادارة (جلوبل) يوصي بعدم توزيع ارباح عن عام 2009‏
يعلن سوق الكويت للأوراق المالية أن مجلس ادارة بيت الاستثمار العالمي
ِ(جلوبل) قد اعتمد البيانات المالية السنوية للشركةللسنة المالية المنتهية ‏
في 31-12-2009، وفقا لما يلي:‏
ِ1) نتائج أعمال البنك:‏
البند          السنة المنتهية في 31-12-09   السنة المنتهية في 31-12-08‏
الربح (الخسارة)(د.ك)       (148.826.000)         (257.649.000)‏
ربحية (خسارة) السهم(فلس كويتي)       (122)                  (225)‏
اجمالي الموجودات المتداولة   494.030.000            813.930.000‏
اجمالي الموجودات            832.759.000           1.252.763.000‏
اجمالي المطلوبات المتداولة      80.792.000            759.099.000‏
اجمالي المطلوبات             609.981.000            912.979.000‏
اجمالي حقوق المساهمين      162.833.000            303.487.000‏
بلغ اجمالي الايرادات من التعاملات مع الاطراف ذات الصلة مبلغ 261.000 د.ك
بلغ اجمالي المصروفات من التعاملات مع الاطراف ذات الصلة مبلغ 1.936.000 د.ك
علما بأن بنك الكويت المركزي قد وافق على هذه البيانات المالية بتاريخ
ِ11-03-2010.‏
ِ2) التوزيعات المقترحة:‏
أوصى مجلس ادارة الشركة بعدم توزيع اى ارباح عن السنة المالية المنتهية
في 31-12-2009 .‏
ِ3) أفادت الشركة ان تقرير مراقبي الحسابات يحتوى على التأكيد على موضوع على ‏
النحو التالي :‏
بدون التحفظ في رأينا ، نلفت الانتباه الى الامور التاليه :‏
أ) كما هو مبين في الايضاح رقم 29 حول البيانات الماليه المجمعه المرفقه ،
تخلفت الشركة الام في 15-ديسمبر-2008 عن سداد تسهيلات مشتركه بمبلغ ‏
ِ200 مليون دولار أمريكي (55 مليون د.ك) و بالتالي ، علقت سداد اى مدفوعات ‏
مستحقه من أصول الدين لصالح البنوك و المؤسسات الماليه بعد ذلك التاريخ ،
و قد أدى التخلف عن السداد هذا الى تفعيل أحكام استحقاق كافة الالتزامات ‏
القائمه الوارده ضمن مستندات الاقتراض للمجموعه و بالتالي اخفاق للمجموعه ‏
في تسديد كامل التزاماتها ، بالنسبه للسنه الماليه المنتهيه في 31-ديسمبر-08‏
فإننا لم نتمكن من الحصول على أدلة تدقيق كافيه و موثوق فيها لتحديد ما اذا ‏
كانت المجموعه سوف تتمكن من الوصول الى اتفاق حول اعادة هيكلة التزامات ‏
الدين و تحديد قدرتها على متابعة أعمالها على اساس مبدأ الاستمراريه، لذلك
فأننا لم نعبر عن رأينا حول البيانات الماليه المجمعه للسنه الماليه ‏
المنتهيه في 31-ديسمبر-2008 في تقرير التدقيق المؤرخ في 3-فبراير-2009.‏
في 10-ديسمبر-2009 ، وقع اعضاء مجلس ادارة الشركة الام اتفاقيه مع مقرضي
المجموعه لإعادة هيكلة التزامات الدين . و كنتيجه لتوقيع اتفاقيه
اعادة هيكلة الدين ،  فإن إدارة الشركة الام على ثقه من قدرة المجموعة ‏
على متابعة اعمالها على أساس مبدأ الاستمراريه . و بالتالي ، فإننا الان
في وضع يمكننا من ابداء الرأي حول البيانات الماليه المجمعه للمجموعه ‏
للسنة الماليه المنتهيه في 31-ديسمبر-2009.‏
ب) كما هو مبين في الايضاح 24 حول البيانات الماليه المجمعه المرفقه فيما
يتعلق بالدعوة القضائيه المرفوعه من قبل الشركة الام ضد بنك في دولة ‏
الامارات العربيه المتحده بخصوص الافراج عن وديعه بمبلغ 71.8 مليون د.ك
ِ(31-ديسمبر-2008 : 69.1 مليون د.ك ) لاتحمل فائدة .‏
ِ- فقرة الرأي : ‏
في رأينا ان البيانات الماليه المجمعه تعبر بصورة عادله  من جميع النواحي ‏
الماديه عن المركز المالي للمجموعه في 31-ديسمبر-2009 و عن أدائها
المالي و تدفقاتها النقديه للسنه المنتهيه بذلك التاريخ وفقا للمعايير ‏
الدوليه للتقارير الماليه المطبقه في دولة الكويت .‏
و عليه سوف تعاد الشركة للتداول بعد عشر دقائق من نزول الاعلان .

Global Investment House Announces Sale of Egyptian Real Estate Subsidiary to Arab African International Bank

GIH announced today that it had sold all its shares in Egypt Real Estate Finance House to Arab African International Bank Cairo for 46 Million Egyptian Pounds (roughly KD2.4 million) and that it would recognize a KD0.2 million profit on the sale in its 1Q10 financials.

Under its restructuring agreement, GIH is to sell "non core" assets essentially abandoning proprietary investments - both equities and real estate.

Here's an earlier story on this transaction with some background information.

Mashreqbank v AlGosaibi Heirs: Ruling Against Mashreq

Last week the Supreme Court of New York updated its website for filings in two cases brought by Mashreqbank against the AlGosaibis.  AlGosaibi heirs refer to the 20 individuals who are the partners in Ahmad Hamad AlGosaibi and Brothers.

To put what follows in context, Mashreqbank has filed three cases in the Supreme Court of New York.
  1. A case against The International Banking Corporation which has been effectively stayed by a filing under Chapter 15 of Title 11.  This effectively "ended" Mashreq's case in NY.
  2. A case against Ahmad Hamad al Gosaibi and Brothers (the partnership as an entity).  In its response AHAB added Maan AlSanea as a Third Party Defendant.  This is NY Supreme Court Case Index #601650/2009.
  3. A case against the twenty individuals comprising the AHAB partnership.   This is NY Supreme Court Case Index #602171/2009.
I printed out a massive stack of documents from the latter two cases and have been merrily reading away the AHAB case documents.  I noticed that the stack of documents from Case #3 above was much smaller.  So I've turned my attention temporarily to that case.

Two developments.

First, as noted above, Justice Richard Lowe III has ruled against Mashreqbank's motion for the Court to order an attachment of defendants' assets, personal property, funds and electronic funds transfers that are located in New York.   He has done so "without prejudice" meaning that Mashreqbank can attempt to remedy the defects in its pleading and file again to obtain the order.  The ruling is dated 25 February 2010 but was only filed on the Supreme Court website on 8 March.  If you want to look yourself, this is document #46.  Instructions on how to access the Supreme Court Website are here.  Be sure to use the right Case Index Number 602171/2009 when you search.

What was the problem?  

The lawsuit concerns two FX deals that Masreqbank undertook.  One with AHAB (the US$150 million which is the subject of Case #2 above) and one with TIBC (which is the subject of Case #1 above).  The transactions themselves were not directly with the partners in AHAB.  

Mashreqbank's lawyers failed to "join" the two contracting parties (AHAB and TIBC) to this lawsuit.  

And in the words of Justice Lowe:  
"To state a contractual cause of action against the individual partners where the partnership is not joined, the complaint must allege that the partnership is insolvent or otherwise unable to meet its obligations."
Mashreqbank has not done this in this case.

Perhaps equally or more important (since Justice Lowe is also on the "bench" for Case #2 above), Mashreqbank has not joined the partners as defendants in Case #2 above. This seems a potentially "fatal" flaw.

Speaking about precedent case Vets North, Inc v Libutti 9278 AD2d 406, 407 [2d Dept 2000]) in which Vets North had not joined the partners and then tried to enforce a judgment against the partners:
The Court determined that plaintiff could not enforce the judgment, because the partners had not been named in the proceeding against the partnership.  "Resort to the personal assets of individual partners is possible only as to those general partners who were named individually as defendants and personally served with process in the proceeding which resulted in the judgment." (id; see also Tally v 885 Real Estate Associates, 11 AD3d 242, 242 [1st Dept 2004])
It looks like Mashreqbank's counsel has some filing to do in both cases.  Since their motion was denied without prejudice they get a second bite at the apple.  (Sorry, I couldn't resist the pun).

The second was that earlier Mashreqbank (14 January 2010) had agreed to drop Mr. AlSanea's wife (Sana Abdulaziz Hamad alGosaibi) as a defendant.  The stipulation (Document #45) is  rather short and gives no reason for this move.  It would seem to me that Mashreqbank would be looking to line up as many pockets  as it could to ensure that it retrieves all the money owed it.   And that amount is not inconsiderable.  Beyond the cases in New York, Mashreqbank has filed a case in the UAE for a total amount of AED1,457,164,610.14 (US$397,047,577.70).

Given all that is at stake, letting Ms. Sana off the hook is a rather curious move indeed.

    2-1

    In the race.

    Saturday 13 March 2010

    The Investment Dar - Issues Press Release on Filing under Financial Stability Law


    Here's Investment Dar's press release announcing they had filed for protection under the FSL.  

    Looks like they're having something problems with their  HTML code as the formatting in the press release is askew.

    You can access earlier posts on TID by using the label "The Investment Dar".  And on the Financial Stability Law by using the label "Financial Stability Law".

    Friday 12 March 2010

    Idiocy Knows No Borders: Start a Hedge Fund From Your Garage


    A whole new meaning to the financial term "get taken for a ride".

    The investors' due diligence must have been great on this HF, particularly the questions on the professional background and competence of the principals of the firm.

    Mashreqbank v AlGosaibi – Analysis of FX Deals

    This post is based on the affidavit (including appendices) submitted by Bruce R. Grace, Esq. of Baach Robinson & Lewis PLLC, who are the attorneys for Ahmad Hamad AlGosaibi & Brothers Company ("AHAB") in the above lawsuit. Attorney Grace submitted these documents to the Supreme Court of the State of New York on 5 February 2010. They were filed as Document #83. But since then for some reason there's been a change. Document #83 has been deleted and it and each of the exhibits contained have been filed as separate documents all dated 25 February. The specific document used as the basis for this post and referred to herein is Document #87-1. 

    You can access electronic documents filings for this case at the Supreme Court of New York's website (http://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/webcivil/FCASMain). Search using Case Index #601650/2009. Follow the steps. You have to go through several pages. On the page labeled "WebCivil Supreme – Case Detail" go to the bottom of the page and click on the "Show EFiled Documents" button.

    As usual, a caveat. As you read documents filed in the case, keep in mind that each side's lawyers are not disinterested partisans of truth. They are hired to represent their clients.

    From the documents I've read it's clear that both parties agree that there was an FX transaction in the name of AHAB with Mashreqbank under which Mashreqbank was to pay US$150 million to AHAB's account at Bank of America on 28 April 2009 and AHAB was to pay SAR564.3 million to Mashreqbank value 5 May 2009. They also agree that Mashreq fulfilled its side of the contract but that AHAB did not.

    As you'd expect both parties have different views about this latter fact. Here's how I would summarize their arguments. AHAB has two key contentions. First that they were the victim of a fraud perpetrated by Mr. AlSanea. And second that from the nature and pattern of the deals Mashreq should have known the deals themselves were questionable. Therefore, Mashreq is in some sense complicit. On its part, Mashreqbank has vigorously denied knowledge of any wrongdoing in the deals and asserts that it was acting in commercial good faith. The Bank also argues that the instructions it received appeared to come from duly authorized parties at AHAB. Simply put, there is a commercial deal which AHAB needs to honor. That's my take. But, I suggest you read the case documents themselves to get a complete picture of their positions.

    Putting aside the issue of who is right and who is wrong, let's take a closer look at the FX deal which is the subject of this case.

    The FX transaction is somewhat unusual as it is a "split value" deal. Normally FX deals have both parties making payments on the same day. If Bank A sells Bank B Sterling against the US Dollar, on the settlement date Bank A remits Sterling to Bank B's account. And on the same day Bank B remits the countervalue in US Dollars to Bank A's account. In a split value date deal, one party pays before the other. The party who pays first is taking risk that the second party might not pay. It is taking a credit risk that the second party may not pay its side of the transaction due to financial problems – being put under administration, entering bankruptcy, etc. Even in an FX transaction where settlement occurs on the same day, there is that credit risk. Herstatt Bank is an example. However, the longer the gap between the first party's payment and the second party's the more credit risk the first party is bearing. 

    So what could be the reasons why parties would agree to a split value settlement mechanism?

    Credit Risk Management

    If one of the parties were concerned about the creditworthiness of the other, it could mitigate its risk by requiring the weaker party to pay first. After confirming receipt of funds and only then, the stronger party would remit its funds. This eliminates credit risk on the weaker party. The time between the two payments would be primarily a function of two things. First, the time it takes for the stronger party to confirm receipt of the funds from the weaker party. Second, how soon thereafter, the stronger party is operationally able to make its payment of the countervalue currency.
    Given the currencies involved – the US Dollar and the Saudi Riyal- confirmation of receipt should be relatively easily. There are two widely available methods which provide quick and efficient information (as well as payment functionality) to banks around the world. The shared global "utility" called SWIFT. And proprietary systems offered by various major banks around the world – generally based on access via the Internet using PCs.  AHAB and Mashreq would have access to one or both of these.

    In terms of payments, same day payments for these currencies should be no problem.  The US system has been "wired" for some time.  Saudi Arabia has had an electronic interbank payment system - including same day payments - since 1997 SARIE (Saudi Arabian Riyal Interbank Express).  Payment instructions could be transmitted by SWIFT or a proprietary bank system.

    Two conclusions. 

    First, This can't be a credit motivated transaction since the stronger credit, Mashreq, is paying first.

    Second, the gap between payments, seven days, is longer than what a credit driven transaction would require.  Three days is probably sufficient as this represents the  "worst case" in terms of operational timing.  That is, if  Mashreq were to remit US Dollars on a Wednesday,  because of later NY working hours, AHAB might not be able to confirm receipt until the next business day. Even if staff came in on Thursday to confirm receipt, a SAR payment couldn't be made until Saturday. 

    The only thing that could lengthen the period would be seasonal holidays, e.g., Eid Al Fitr, Eid AlAdha, National Day, etc.  Were there any seasonal holidays during late April / early May 2009 that extended the time period?   No! 

    So I think we can safely exclude credit concerns as a motive for a split value date deal in this case.

    OPERATIONAL REQUIREMENTS – DISPARITY OF WORKING DAYS

    The second reason for these transactions is ostensibly disparity of working days. That is, on the settlement date, New York is open for US Dollar payments but Riyadh (and the rest of Saudi) is closed for the weekend or a holiday. As noted above, Saudi Arabia's "weekend" is Thursday and Friday. 

    In this transaction US Dollars settled on Tuesday 28 April 2009 with the SAR on Tuesday 5 May 2009. There were five Saudi working days from 28 April to 5 May: Tuesday 28 April, Wednesday 29 April, Saturday 2 May, Sunday 3 May and Monday 4 May. There were no "seasonal" holidays during this period. So it is hard to see that there is an operational reason for the seven day gap.

    A key question though (at least in my mind) is whether even with a disparity of working days such a split value deal would be entertained. 

    When I worked for financial firms in the ME managed according to "USA" practices, a split value deal (except one undertaken for credit reasons) was strictly forbidden.  And generally there was  no interest in the extra hassle involved with credit motivated split value deals.   Two reasons. First, such a transaction could be a way of providing a short term money market loan to a party. Such extensions of credit were required to take place under lines specifically designated for loans.  If a transaction does not appear as a loan, a bank might extend another loan well beyond its risk tolerance for that customer. Another reason was integrity of our financial statements and regulatory reporting. A loan should be reported as a loan not an FX transaction.

    Now I recognize that contrary to the beliefs of some what a "USA-style" managed institution does is not necessary infallible behavior. So I checked with an old friend who is long experienced  in Treasury at the DGM/AGM level in both "Arab" and "European" style managed banks. He told me that none of the institutions he worked for ever would entertain such a transaction. The counterparty would simply be told  that the deal had to be done on a common working day for both currencies so that settlement of both sides of the transaction could take place on the same day. But perhaps our horizons are too narrow.  Maybe other institutions apply different rules.  Even if that is the case (and I'm not persuaded that routinely doing split value date deals makes good business sense), the fact is that 28 April was a valid business day in both the Kingdom and the USA. So there was no operational reason both sides could not have settled on the 28 April. 

    My friend also commented that the 3.762 FX rate used in the transaction was "non reflective of the market price". In his banks and mine, it was strictly forbidden to book transactions at non market rates. The concern was that one was assisting someone in manipulating their financials.

    RATIONALE FOR THE SPLIT VALUE TRANSACTIONS

    So if we've eliminated these two justifications, what could be the rationale this transaction?

    If we examine the pattern of transactions, we can perhaps gain an insight into their purpose and rationale. 

    In his affidavit Exhibit 1, page 20 paragraph #21 Attorney Grace states that between February 2005 and 5 May 2009, Mashreq and AHAB engaged in over "100 purported 'split value foreign exchange transactions' substantially identical to the transaction pleaded by Mashreq in the Complaint. Between January 2008 and 1 May 2009 alone, 52 split value foreign exchange transactions were carried out between Mashreq and the Money Exchange, totaling US$4.7 billion." 

    He then goes on to describe that the transactions involved a payment of US Dollars by Mashreq to AlGosaibi's US Dollar account at Bank of America New York with AHAB to pay SAR to Mashreq at National Commercial Bank 3 to 12 days later. The FX rates used in these transactions were not at the prevailing spot FX rate. The SAR is fixed to the US Dollar at 3.75 SAR = $1.00. Interbank trading takes place in a narrow range around that rate. Before the settlement date, AHAB and Mashreq would engage in an offsetting deal to roll the existing deal forward. He also noted that in every deal Mashreq made a profit. AHAB never did.

    Here's an outline of how this scenario might work. First, there is the original deal. Let's use the deal settling 5 May for SAR as the "Original Deal" (though to be clear that deal was actually the rollover of an earlier deal). That deal involved US Dollars against SAR with Mashreq paying US$150 million value 28 April with AHAB to pay SAR564.3 million on 5 May. If we presume AHAB doesn't have any money or wants to use its money for something else, how does it settle the payment due on 5 May to Mashreq?

    Let's treat this as two separate deals. First a deal to cover the SAR payment due on 5 May (a "Closeout Deal"). And then a second deal to re-open the position in US Dollars (a "Rollover Deal").

    In the Closeout Deal AHAB buys SAR from Mashreq against its (AHAB's) payment of US Dollars to Mashreq with settlement of both for value 5 May at the Spot Rate of 3.75. That takes care of the obligation to pay SAR from the Original Deal, except for Mashreq's profit SAR0.9 million which AHAB has to fund from its own resources. (The "profit" arises from the difference in SAR betweens US$150 million at SAR 3.75 = US$1.00 and SAR 3.762).

    But now it needs US$150 million to pay for the SAR value 5 May under the Closeout Deal. Where does it get the US Dollars, if it doesn't already have them? From the Rollover Deal. Let's assume the Rollover Deal has the same terms as the Original Deal except the value dates are different. So, AHAB would buy US Dollars from Mashreq value 5 May against a payment of SAR to Mashreq value 12 May. This deal re-introduces the split value date.

    While the Affidavit it sounds as though the Closeout Deal and the Rollover Deal were combined into a single deal, the Exhibits contain a copy of AHAB's confirmation for the Original Deal (itself a Rollover of an earlier deal). That confirm shows that there must have been two separate deals as outlined above. AHAB and Mashreq could agree to net the two deals' payments. And thus AHAB would owe Mashreq SAR0.9 million.   AHAB's obligation to pay Mashreq US$150 million (Closeout Deal) would be "offset" by Mashreq's obligation to pay US $150 million to AHAB (Rollover Deal).

    Putting this information in tabular form might make the explanation clearer. The table below summarizes the cash flows by value date that would have occurred from a rollover of the transaction maturing 5 May. But note: no such rollover occurred: no Closeout Deal and no Rollover Deal. And since AHAB didn't settle the SAR payment on 5 May, Mashreq is pursuing them in Court.


    TransactionUS$ 28 AprilUS$ 5 MaySAR 5 MaySAR 12 May
    Original Deal

    FX Rate = 3.762
    +$150MM -SAR564.3MM
    Closeout Deal

    FX Rate = 3.75
    $0-$150MM
    +SAR562.5MM
    Rollover Deal

    FX Rate = 3.762
    $0+$150MM
    -SAR564.3MM


     
    TOTAL CASHFLOW

    TO AHAB
    +$150MMUS$0-SAR1.8MM-SAR564.3MM


    As you can see from above the Closeout Deal and the Rollover Deal effectively push forward AHAB's payment of the SAR564.3 million to settle the original inflow of US$150 million. The only payment that does occur is the profit payment to Mashreq on 5 May. On each settlement date in the future (assuming the deal would be continued to be rolled forward), AHAB would pay Mashreq its profit. That explains why Mashreq always was making a "profit" on each deal.

    Based on the above. 
    1. These FX transactions were the equivalent of short term loans. 
    2. The persistent "profit" on the deals was in effect the interest payment on the loan. 
    3. The transaction FX rate of 3.762 compared to the 3.75 fixed parity results in an implied borrowing rate of 8.32% per annum. That rate might seem high. The day before the 28 April value date one month Libor was trading at roughly 43 basis points. That means the margin over Libor was roughly 7.9%. But remember that at that time spreads were still elevated due to subprime crisis, the failure of Lehman, etc. So there is some rationale to the credit spread here. 
    4. Also as is hopefully clear, the Rollover Deals did not result in AHAB getting more money from Mashreq. Rather the Rollovers merely extended the maturity of the loan. So despite the US$4.7 billion volume of transactions mentioned, AHAB only received  (borrowed) US$150 million from Mashreq. 
    5. Mashreq's dealers must have known that they were extending loans. Whether its management did is not determinable from the documents I've seen. 
    6. In terms of justification for the transaction, it's hard to imagine that anyone with a knowledge of AHAB's business could consider these transactions were commercially necessary to fund the needs of the Money Exchange business. The volumes are too large relative to the Exchange's business.  Since the amounts were rolled forward, there was only one net cash inflow to AHAB. 
    7. Nor would these transactions likely to be financially motivated "hedges", particularly, since the US$/SAR FX rate is fixed (and has been so for many many years) and since the Saudi Government has ample financial resources to maintain the "peg".

    Commercial Bank of Kuwait 2009 Profits KD0.154 Million



    AlQabas reports that the Central Bank of Kuwait has approved Commercial Bank's 2009 financials.  Net profit is reported as being KD154,000 after heavy (but unquantified) additions to provisions.  The Bank reported net profit of KD100.7 million for 2008. 

    However, this year earnings have been "subdued" as the Bank has built provisions starting in the Second Quarter.  At 30 September 2009, it reported a net loss of KD1.6 million.   So this is not big news if you've been paying attention.

    Dubai World - Debt Rescheduling Proposal - Just A Maturity Extension?


    According to Gulf News, recent discussions suggest that the rescheduling may just an extension of maturities with no haircuts or other features which would offend the sensibilities of DW's lenders or investors.

    Time will tell.  Until then we're all still free to speculate.

    Thursday 11 March 2010

    More on Retail Banking Distress - Saudi Youth and Credit Cards

    A rather short article from AlQabas relaying a recent survey among Saudi youth.
    1. 52% are suffering from debt caused by the improper use of credit cards.
    2. Two thirds expressed concerns about the rising cost of living, the housing shortage, decline in salaries, and the increase in unemployment.
    Credit cards are a particularly insidious form of debt.  The interest charges are relatively high. As a result it's quite easy to get into a debt trap - where the debt keeps increasing even if one makes the minimum monthly payment.

    Banks are not always responsible in the underwriting stage - cards are often given to those who shouldn't have them.  Where there is no central credit bureau, the bank is essentially lending "blind" as it doesn't know the customer's credit history (payments) nor does it know how much credit outstanding the customer has.  

    And credit monitoring and management is absolutely woeful.  I know a customer of one regional financial institution - the winner of more than one award for excellence in banking who restructured a client's credit card debt to a five year personal loan. One month after the negotiations concluded the chap got a letter from the credit card division of that same bank thanking him for "paying off" his balance and offering him a new credit card with a higher limit!  This after they had spent the previous six months writing him letters threatening legal action and all sort of woeful consequences if he didn't pay his bill.   Somehow when his balance was transferred from the credit card division to the personal loan division it registered as a "payoff". 

    HSBC Middle East Business


    A while back the press reported on the decline in HSBC's Middle East earnings from US$1.7 billion to US$0.5 billion. I didn't see a detailed analysis. So a closer look today – with some focus  on retail in line with the earlier post on Emirates NBD.

    So you can follow along here are links to HSBC's 2009 Annual Report and their 2009 Investor & Analyst Presentation. The annual report is a slim 504 page "puppy". You'll find the numerical analysis of ME business on pages 116 and following. I've also indicated sources for the major data. All amounts are in US$ millions.

    First a geographical context. Just where is HSBC's ME business concentrated?

    Let's look at net income allocated by geography. (Page 117 from Annual Report)

    Country200720082009
    Egypt$   153$   223$ 224
    UAE$   617$   861$   (3)
    Other$   300$   367$   41
    Share of Saudi British Bank$   237$   295$ 193
    TOTAL$1,307$1,746$ 455
     
    1. The important of the UAE to HSBC's ME business is clear, though it should be noted that ME business is a relatively small part of HSBC's franchise. In the range of a rounding error compared to other geographic regions. 
    2. As a general comment, HSBC's main lines of business across the ME (in order of income contribution) are Global Banking and Markets, then Commercial Banking and then Personal Financial Services ("Retail"). 
    3. In 2007 and 2008 the UAE represented almost 50% of net income in the ME.
    Now the asset side of the ledger – loans and advances only as FYE 2009. (Page 212 from the Annual Report).

    EgyptUAEOtherTotal
    Residential Mortgages$       0$  1,693$   248$  1,941
    Other Personal$   275$  3,748$1,560$  5,583
    Property Related$   125$  2,118$   775$  3,018
    Commercial, International Trade & Other$2,106$10,214$4,847$17,167
    TOTAL$2,506$17,773$7,430$27,709
     
    1. HSBC's share of Saudi British Bank (reflected in the income data above) is not reported here. 
    2. The Bank has significant US$ exposure in each of the product lines, particularly in the UAE. 
    3. Equally, it's clear that the UAE business drives the Bank's ME franchise. 
    4. The UAE is 64% of the loan book. 77% of real estate related lending. 67% of Personal Loans. 59% of Commercial and International Loans.
     Third, a sectoral breakdown by net income. What are the contributions of various lines of business? (Page 117 from Annual Report)

    Line of Business200720082009
    Personal Financial Services$   245$   289$(126)
    Commercial Banking$   482$   558$   21
    Global Banking & Markets$   495$   816$ 467
    Private Banking$       3$       4$      6
    Other$     82$     79$   87
    TOTAL$1,307$1,746$ 455
     
    1. The Global Banking & Markets segment are large corporate and sovereigns. I expect that the Dubai Inc exposure is within this segment.

    Now breakdown of business in the UAE using net income. (Page 117 Annual Report)

    Line of Business200720082009
    Personal Financial Services$ 108$ 133$(177)
    Commercial Banking$ 262$ 330$(136)
    Global Banking & Markets$ 242$ 388$ 307
    Private Banking$     3$    4$    (2)
    Other$     2$     6$     5
    TOTAL$ 617$ 861$    (3)
     
    1. Global Banking & Markets plays a key role with Commercial Banking next and then Retail. 
    2. Both Retail and Commercial Banking have taken some rather dramatic hits – some US$776 million in reversal from 2008 levels. 
    3. The Bank has yet to take any sizeable provisions for its GB&M business. I suspect that it is just a matter of time before this shoe drops.
    And now loan impairment and provisions in the ME by line of business. (Pages 122-124 Annual Report)

    Line of Business200720082009
    Personal Financial Services$  66$ 223$   588
    Commercial Banking$(11)$   45$   573
    Global Banking & Markets$    0$   12$   173
    Private Banking$    0$     0$       0
    Other$    0$    (1)$       0
    Inter Segment Eliminations$    0$     0 $       0
    TOTAL$ 55$ 279$1,334
     
    1. Here a negative number is "good". It is a "de-expense" in the words of Emirates-NBD. 
    2. HSBC doesn't provide a further breakdown of these lines of business by country. Or at least I didn't find them. So we have to work with ME wide figures. Thus, the analysis below probably understates the situation in the UAE as most of the loan problems are centered there. 
    3. Over the three year period, we can see the distress building. 
    4. Loan Impairment Charges ("LIC") to Gross Operating Income (before LIC and operating expenses) ("GOI") may be useful metric to quantify the extent of the distress. 
    5. For Retail Banking that ratio was 9.6% for 2007. In 2008 23.2%. And in 2009 62%. I'd note that in the latter two years GOI was roughly the same so it's not a case of the numerator shrinking. 
    6. For Commercial Banking, there was a net recovery in 2007. In 2008 5.5%. In 2009 72%. For GB&M, in 2007 0%. In 2008 1.4%. In 2009 21%. 
    7. Let's take a purely "balance sheet" look at this same issue. On Page 211 we see that in 2009 of all HSBC's 7 geographic regions, the ME has the highest percentage of impaired loans at 6.8%, 0.8% more than the USA where HSBC is still struggling with the impact of Household Finance. What a change from 2008 where the ME had a 1.0% ratio and was tied for fifth place! 
    8. One final place to look and that's charge offs. A provision is an amount added to a reserve (or as HSBC calls it an "allowance"). Provisions pass through the income statement as an expense.  The provisions are then added to the reserve/allowance account.  This account serves as a "contra" to the loan account and is subtracted from it. When a loan is deemed to be uncollectable either in part or in full, the uncollectable amount is charged off. This transaction does not pass through the income statement but is offset against the loans account  and the contra account. 
    9. In 2009, HSBC charged off US$384 million of loans. Of this amount US$376 million was for Personal non mortgage loans. By contrast in 2008, the Bank charged off US$164 million of which US$153 million was for Personal non mortgage loans. The year to year increase on Personal non mortgage loans is 146%.