Tuesday, 28 January 2020

Setback for Golden Belt Sukuk Holders

Worth Its Weight in Golden Belt Sukuks
On 27 January Citibank who are acting as Delegate for the Golden Belt Sukuk (the Company) advised that:
On 25 December 2019, the trustee of the financial reorganisation of Saad and Maan Al-Sanea pursuant to the Bankruptcy Regulation (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Royal Decree No. M/50) informed that the Commercial Court in Dammam had rejected including the claims of the Company and the Delegate in the financial reorganisation. On 1 January 2020, the Company and the Delegate filed appeals against these decisions. The appeals will be decided by the Court of Appeal of Saudi Arabia

It’s highly likely that the estate-in-reorganization is insufficient to pay creditors a significant portion of their outstanding dues. Nevertheless, this is a setback for Sukuk holders.

Earlier posts on Golden Belt (10 in all) can be accessed using this link.
 

Numbeo’s Crime and Safety Index – More Accurate than People Magazine


You’ve probably seen news reports from “national” newspapers touting one or more of their cities’ high place in Numbeo’s “2020 Crime and Safety Index” or lamenting a city’s poor showing.

For example, “Abu Dhabi has been declared the most secure place on earth based on its low crime index of 11.33. Sharjah ranks fifth with a crime index of 16.48 while Dubai has taken the seventh spot with a crime index of 17.02.”

If you’re like AA, you wonder how Numbeo conducts its research, particularly because:
  1. Numbeo is able to parse differences among cities to two places to the right of the decimal point. Precision like this would appear to be based on some very hefty methodology. Though as we saw with Transparency International’s Corruptions Perception Index, sometimes precision is more a matter of appearance than a real condition.
  2. More importantly the results seem less than believable. Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia (ranking 35) is apparently less safe than Damascus (32) or Baghdad! But not as bad off as London which trails behind at 106.. Beating all of them is Kingston Jamaica in position 28.

What’s the answer?

Numbeo is a “crowd sourced” data base.

What does that mean in “small words”?

Let’s let Numbeo speak for itself.


This section is based on surveys from visitors of this website. Questions for these surveys are similar to many similar scientific and government surveys. Each entry in the survey is saved as the number in the range [-2, +2], with -2 having meaning of strongly negative and +2 meaning of strongly positive. We filter surveys to eliminate potential spam, like people entering a large amount of data which are differentiating from the median value.

What this means is that Numbeo doesn’t conduct any active data gathering or rely on third parties to do so as does Transparency International. Rather it relies on “visitors” to the website for its data.

Now those who believe that if a survey is not conducted using “proper” statistical methods, particularly those relating to sample selection, it’s not valid.

Clearly, Numbeo’s sampling/data collection doesn’t meet the statistical “test”.

So why then should we rely on its rating?

Again Numbeo has the answer:


Is this much less accurate than governmental statistics? In some countries, governments have a detailed statistics based on a number of reported crimes per capita. Those surveys are particular good in comparing crime between two cities in that country, but are not so good in cross country comparison for the following reasons: (1) people in some countries are much more likely to report a crime than in other countries (2) data could be forged by governmental institutions and (3) data are not available for most of the world

It would appear from the above that Numbeo believes that those folks who are shy in reporting crimes to their local authorities will be less reluctant to provide information to Numbeo. And that a statistically significant number of them will do so.

Sadly, the “wisdom” of crowds is generally turns out to be more an aspiration than a realistic assessment of the state of affairs.

Numbeo’s ratings then are nothing more than the perceptions of limited group of people who chose to respond (therefore a statisically “flawed” sample). And the results should be treated as being as valid as lists of the sexiest man or woman alive.

Monday, 27 January 2020

The Wisdom of Business Books

Black Friday An Important Part of the Celebration of Christ's Birth
The Purchasing of Mass Quantities at a Discount
Like the Red Cross after a disaster, each year AA visits the Mall after Black Friday to help clear up the damage and look for any shoppers trapped under the rubble. This year was no exception. A trip to the USA for Thanksgiving with family brought us back to familiar haunts.
This year with all the focus on-line sales the human tragedy and carnage were minimal save for the rise in carpal tunnel syndrome.
Charitable work done in record time, I nipped by the book store.
Whenever I need a “pick-me-up”, no need to head to the nearest pub. A visit to the bookstore’s Business Section allows me to reconnect with old friends and have some fun or a chuckle or two.
Look there’s Tom Peters with a new book with “excellence” in the title. That’s how many so far? I’ve “known” Tom for ages since I read “In Search of Excellence” some years back. He apparently found it and hasn’t stopped writing about it since then.
No purchase today. I’m holding out for “The Excellence of the Excellence”.
As I scanned the shelves, there he was Elon Musk arms folded with a determined look on his face. Gracing the cover of a breathless tome about how he, Bezos, and some business luminary whose name now escapes me were going to colonize space. Apparently, it’s true that the world is not enough.
It was clear that I was getting closer to the business celebrity section. My favorite section. Always good for a hearty chuckle or belly laugh.
Here was the accumulated wisdom of various captains of industry. Learn how to be an E Manager. Or if you’re a contrarian, learn that there are no E Managers..
Learn to Think Like a Billionaire. The alleged author of this tome’s fortunes seem to have risen with his foray into politics. From ship’s cook to ship’s captain thanks to a talented ghostwriter and a gullible public 

As they say, those who can, do. Those who can't, write books offering advice on how to do it.  Or perhaps hire someone to write the book for them.
Books of quotes from Peter Thiel, Jeff Bezos. Inspiring lives, inspiring quotes. Words to live by.
Authors channeling the thoughts of famous departed leaders. Sun Tzu with advice for women businessmen. Genghis Khan.
Apparently even Jesus had a business leadership style and has some timely pointers on "how to make a payroll".  Who knew besides Jerry Falwell?
Visionary insights to be scooped up. More knowledge per square inch of shelf space than the entire Library of Alexandria.
A veritable collection of wisdom to rival The Great Books. To which sadly Hutchins and Adler lacked access.
My attempts to suppress a chuckle crumbled. I was laughing out loud.
A clerk who had been keeping me under close surveillance given my increasingly raucous browsing came over to ask if she could help
Yes, indeed.
Any “works” by Adam Neumann or about him?
Sadly none. Has he missed his fleeting chance to tell us how he made it “big” and how if we emulate him, we can also? Will his wisdom like that of Ammonius Saccas be lost for all time? Say it isn't true!
As I began to walk to the exit, my eye fell on a book “The Five Habits of Highly Effective Companies”. Incontrovertible proof that corporations are indeed people, though I suppose none was really needed.
Later at home I heard that McKinsey or Bain were planning to expand their consulting business to offer psychological counselling to firms perhaps after reading the above tome. Treating addictions, resolving traumas. 

Perhaps even those from past lives.  Or as we business experts call them "pre-merger incarnations". 

Good business and good works combined.
I paused to gaze upon the history and foreign policy books just before exiting. 

To my surprise I learned that Bill Gates has an annual “best” book list. A list that includes more than business or technology tomes.
As I left the store, I wondered what Bill recommended I have for dinner. Sadly, a question that remains unanswered to this very day.
Thankfully Madame Arqala usually makes this decision. Or I might have starved to death in the absence of Bill’s reply.