Qatar: Doing Quite Nicely Thank You

The Lights are Still On 

So how is Qatar faring in the face of the Quartet’s boycott?  

Of course, not everything is perfect but as the 2019 IMF Article IV consultation with Qatar demonstrates the country is coping and in some areas doing quite well.

From this point on what follows are a series of direct quotes from the IMF. 

On May 13, 2019, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Qatar and considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting.  

Economic performance improved in 2018. Qatar’s economy has successfully absorbed the shocks from the 2014–16 drop in hydrocarbon prices and the 2017 diplomatic rift. Real GDP growth is estimated at 2.2 percent, up from 1.6 percent in 2017. Headline inflation remained low.  The central government’s fiscal position switched to a surplus of 2.3 percent of GDP in 2018 from a sizable deficit in 2017. Recovery in non-resident deposits and foreign bank funding helped banks increase private sector credit. Banks have been able to diversify the geographical composition of non-resident deposits. The current account is estimated to have reached a surplus of 9.3 percent of GDP in 2018, largely reflecting higher average oil prices. Reserves reached US$31 billion (5½ months of imports) at end-December 2018. Recently, Qatar issued US$12 billion in international bonds, which was more than four times oversubscribed, with lower spreads than in previous issues.

Qatar’s banking sector remains healthy, reflecting high asset quality and strong capitalization. At end-September 2018, banks had high capitalization (CAR of 16 percent) and maintained strong profitability (ROA of 1.6 percent), low non-performing loans (ratio of 1.7 percent), and a reasonable provisioning ratio of 83 percent. Banks are comfortably liquid, with a liquid-asset-to-total-asset ratio of 29.7 percent. Nonetheless, strong credit growth that outpaced deposits resulted in the system-wide loan-to-deposit (LTD) ratio of 103 percent which is higher than the CB’s guidance of 100 percent. After a period of rapid growth, real estate prices in Qatar are adjusting to new levels. According to the real estate price index developed by QCB, following an 82 percent increase during 2012–16, real estate prices fell by 15 percent during 2017–18. Macro-financial prospects remain favorable, though risks skew to the downside.   

The external position is weaker than the level implied by fundamentals and medium-term policy settings. (Annex II). Nonetheless, with gradual fiscal adjustment, the estimated current account gap could be closed in the medium term. While reserves are low relative to the ARA metric, risks are mitigated by large sovereign wealth fund assets (Annex II) and external debt is assessed to be sustainable (Annex III). The peg to the U.S. dollar continues to provide a clear and credible monetary anchor and is considered to be sustainable 

Stress test results indicate that Qatari banks can withstand severe macroeconomic shocks. Given the strong position of the financial system, with low NPLs, adequate provisioning, and solid profitability, banks can comfortably withstand higher NPLs and lower profitability brought about by macroeconomic shocks (see IMF Country Report No. 18/136). Many of the real estate borrowers are reportedly well-diversified large conglomerates that are able to support their loan payments from other businesses.

The recovery in non-resident deposits (by 23 percent y-o-y by December 2018) and foreign bank funding (up by 23 percent) helped banks increase private sector credit by 13 percent y-o-y by December 2018.5 Banks have been able to diversify the geographical composition of non-resident deposits and lengthened their maturity structure.  

The stock market performed well in 2018, with the index recovering its 2017 losses and rising by 23 percent in 2018. Bond yields declined reflecting positive investor sentiment towards Qatar.  

Gulf Finance House –2018 and 1Q19 Treasury Share Transactions Cost GFH Shareholders More than USD 37 Million

Satellite View of GFH Statement of Changes in Shareholders' Equity 

Update  12 June below in red.

The sad story of wasted shareholder money continues here.

First, a technical note to ground the analysis that follows.  In line with accounting standards, gains and losses on sales of treasury shares don’t pass through GFH’s income statement so technically they are not “income”.   But since this decline in value is the result of deliberate actions by GFH, it’s hard for AA not to consider this the equivalent of an income statement “loss”.  And I shall use the term “loss” in that sense in this post.  

Now to the analysis.  

In his Shareholders Report in the 2018 audited consolidated financial statements, GFH’s Chairman stated: “Also of note during the year, GFH took active steps to support its share price and market capitalisation, acquiring treasury shares up to 7% of the Group’s total issued shares.”  

Indeed, it did!  

But perhaps the results weren’t so good for GFH’s shareholders.  

In short (1) a lot of money was spent and lost and (2) the impact seems to have been minimal.  

As per AA’s analysis, it appears that the net result of GFH’s buying and selling of its own shares in FY 2018 was a reduction in equity of some USD 27.9 million.   If you’ll look at Statement of Changes in Shareholders’ Equity in GFH’s 1Q19 interim unaudited report, you see that GFH admits to losses of USD 24. 8 million on treasury share transactions in 2018.  

AA believes the roughly USD 3 million difference between AA and GFH relates to the USD 3,058 million 2018 charge to the share premium account which zeroed it out.  It appears that GFH considers that “loss” to be covered by earlier years’ gains.   

You will also note in the 1Q19 report that GFH has continued its treasury share transactions in 1Q19 for an additional USD 9.6 million “loss”.  And three more quarters left this year.  That's a time reference not a monetary one.

So a total of USD 34 million by GFH’s accounting and USD 37 million by AA’s.  

But you might ask AA:  Yes, but what about the impact on the share price? Surely, this was a small price to pay for “supporting GFH’s share price and capitalization”.  

GFH’s closing share price on 2 January 2018 was AED 1.520 and on 31 December 2018 was AED 0.902, according to investing.com.  Looking at share price performance only, that’s a decline of approximately 41%.  The share price at the end of March and May this year was in a similar range to the FYE 2018 price. 

I suppose in defense of GFH one might argue that absent their efforts the price would be even lower.  AA will not.  

The central question is why GFH is spending shareholders’ money to prop up the stock price?   

And perhaps whether regulators think that the method employed is “sound practice”?  

We don’t really know what is motivating GFH’s board and management. 

But what we can do is take a detailed look at their actions and try to guess (note that word) what is going on.  

In the recent past, GFH had minimal treasury share transactions.  It was only in FY 2017 that break was made with past moderate efforts.  FY 2018 saw a real break with the past as this chart demonstrates.  

GFH Financial Group Holding of Treasury Shares
FYE		Number of TS		Total Issued Shares		TS as % TIS
2013		5,283,272		3,161,889,967		0.17%
2014		5,204,536		4,730,665,467		0.11%
2015		24,503,697		2,256,583,403		1.09%
2016		2,211,891		2,256,583,403		0.10%
2017		106,467,804		3,681,450,441		2.89%
2018		255,455,953		3,681,450,441		6.94%

Source:  GFH Annual Reports  

1. Clearly, FY 2017 was a transitional year from the pattern of the previous four years.  
2. FY 2018 saw an “explosion” of Treasury Share transactions.  

Let’s look a bit closer at FY 2018.   

GFH Financial Group Treasury Share Transactions
by Quarter for FY 2018 -Millions of US Dollars
		TS BOP		Buy	Sell	Net = B-S	TS EOP	G/(L)
Q1		$58.4		$5.4	$3.2	$2.2	$60.6	($0.9)
Q2		$60.6		$10.8	$20.6	($9.8)	$50.8	($5.2)
Q3		$50.8		$56.1	$17.9	$38.2	$89.0	$0.0
Q4		$89.0		$88.7	$92.3	($3.6)	$85.4	($21.8)
FY TOTAL				$161.0	$134.0	$27.0		($27.9)

 Source:  GFH 2018 Quarterly Financials, Amounts in Thousands of US Dollars

1. TS= Treasury Shares BOP = Beginning of Period, EOP End of Period.  G/(L) = Gains/Losses.  
2. Buys in 4Q18 were 55% of the FY’s total and 69% of sales.  
3. It appears that these (4Q) sales were undertaken to either fund new purchases or because of imposed limits on the amount of Treasury Shares GFH was allowed to hold either from its regulator (CBB) or the GFH Board itself.  Or perhaps some combination of both.  
4. 78% of FY 2018’s loss on Treasury Share transactions occurred in 4Q.  
5. That suggests, but does not prove, that GFH was frantically trying to stave off a decline in share price for the “all-important” FYE 31 December reporting date.  

Just how frantic that activity was can be seen from the next two charts.  

First, let’s look at 4Q18 transactions in GFH shares on the BSE, KSE, and DFM.

Trading in GFH Financial Group Shares 4Q2018
		Local Currency		USD Equivalent
BSE		BHD 6,379,970		USD 16,906,921
KSE
Oct		KWD 1,013,881.569		USD 3,335,137
Nov		KWD 311,267.257		USD 1,023,905
Dec		KWD 4,119,336.652		USD 13,550,450
DFM		AED 1,363,936,328.99		USD 371,644,776
TOTAL				USD 406,461,188

Sources:  BSE, KSE October, KSE November, KSE December, and DFM.

1. With the DFM, you’ll have to do a bit of manual tinkering to select the time period.  Click on the orange box on the upper left hand side of the Bulletins Page.  Select 2018 and then Q4.  
2. What emphasizes the “frantic” nature of GFH’s efforts is the percentage of their Treasury Share transactions of the above total as detailed in the chart below.

GFH Financial Group Treasury Share Transactions 4Q18
	Amount		% Total 4Q18 Transactions
Buys	$88,662,000		22%
Sales	$92,267,000
Loss on Sales	-$21,780,000
Net Sales	$70,487,000		17%
Total Transactions	$159,149,000		39%

Sources:  Previous Two Charts.

1. Percentages are calculated using the Total Transaction from the previous chart, i.e., USD 406,461,188.  
2. Net sales transactions are estimates of cash proceeds = Cost – Loss = Cash.  
3. Chart is based on the assumption that all of GFH’s Treasury Share transactions took place on a stock exchange.  
4. If the above analysis is correct—and AA invites readers to point out any mistakes—then GFH had an outsized share of transactions.   Does AA dare use the phrase “حوت الخليج“ ?   

What are we to make of all of this? 

Here are some thoughts of what might be going on.  Not proofs, but rather conjectures.  

Some of you out there may have other thoughts.  Please post a comment. Share your views.   Point out AA's mistakes.

If we assume limits on GFH’s holding of Treasury Shares (as a percentage of shares rather than a USD amount), then it would seem likely that GFH’s management would be aware that attempting to continue to prop up the share price in 4Q18 would require selling some of the existing Treasury Shares to make room for new purchases.     

And that selling those shares would lead to losses.  

If one looks at the average Buy/Sell ratio by quarter (adjusted for the cash losses on existing Treasury Shares), it’s 1.7 in Q1, 0.7 in Q2, 3.1 in Q3, and 1.3 in Q4. 

Clearly, the “bang for the buck” in Q4 is rather limited.  Each USD 1 of existing Treasury Shares sold only increases demand by USD 1.3.   Hard to see that having a material effect on the price.  

Perhaps that explains GFH’s whale-sized share of total trades in 4Q.  Trying to use volume to move the price in a favorable direction.

But taking on that volume of transaction caused substantial losses. 

AA is at a loss to understand why GFH did not stop trading in its shares when the losses began to mount.  If this were FX or other trading, a stop loss limit would have been triggered.  

GFH’s shareholders were bleeding substantial cash.  And consequences of continuing in 4Q18 are highly likely responsible for some of the pain in 1Q19. Overall a loss to the tune of USD 37 million for FY 2018 and 1Q19.  

We don’t know what GFH’s reason for continuing Treasury Share transaction but they certainly evidenced determination to proceed David Farragut style at a level that AA interprets as “frantic”.  

All this leads AA to conjecture that there seems more to this behavior than merely propping up the share price because it appears management accepted the large amount of losses incurred.  

What could motivate this behavior?  

As noted above we don’t know. 

But if we want to conjecture, what could be possible motives?  

Was GFH propping up the shares to “help” those investors who financed their share purchases using the shares as collateral?  And were exposed to lenders calling in the loans or asking for more collateral?  If so, who might those shareholders be?  

If Homer can nod, surely AA can.   In early August 2018 as reported by Gulf News, GFH advised the market "that on Thursday that its shareholders Abu Dhabi Financial Company (ADFG) and Integrated Capital (IC) have transferred 102,094,573 and 79,905,427 of GFH’s shares respectively from their NINs to Al Hilal Bank for a financing facility."   Coincidence?

Or perhaps to help investment funds who bought GFH’s shares “high” and would have to report a loss to their investors based on FYE 2018’s much lower price?  Who might those funds be?

Well, according to press accounts, Goldilocks acquired a 4.9% stake in GFH in January 2018.  At that time shares were trading around AED 1.5 per share.   As noted above with the share price at AED 0.902 at year end, Goldilocks would have to have reported a 41% loss on the investment considering only movement in the stock price over the year. 

AA in the Press Again as Usual with Similar Effects, Sadly

Reporting “Rant” Questions 

In previous years, GFH’s Statement of Changes in Consolidated Equity clearly labeled the results of Treasury Sales transactions which resulted in a Loss or a Gain by using those exact words.  That changed with the 2018 FYE report.  The loss amounts appear but there is no descriptor.  

Those who know their IAS/IFRS would understand that there was a loss in 2018.  But AA believes that certainly not all of GFH’s shareholders are accounting experts.  And it’s highly likely that only a handful are.   And how many of the accounting experts are reading GFH's financials?  

2018 was coincidentally a year in which the loss was quite large.  

Questions for GFH:

1. Was this change designed to avoid drawing attention to the loss?  
2. Or a simple oversight?  If this is the case, what caused the change in the existing template?  Or in other words, why change the tried and true? 

Interestingly, the term “loss” to describe 2018 was used in a footnote to the 1Q19 interim financial Statement of Changes to Consolidated Equity.  But in the same note on page 4 in the 1Q19 financials, the 1Q19 "loss" was again not used as it had been in past as part of the main text?   Why is this?  

Questions for external auditors,

1. Did they “miss” this rather important change in 2018 AR?   
2. Or did they approve it?  
3. Additionally, when a bank loses an amount this size (some 20% of net income) is this not a material piece of information that needs to be highlighted?  And not buried in a note?  Which is unclear except to accountants? 
4. Would auditors consider this level of "trading" in a firm's Treasury Shares as constituting "material information" as well? 

More posts to come on GFH’s 2018 results.