Tuesday, 1 December 2009

Kuwaiti Banks Dislcose Exposure to Dubai - Updated

As of yesterday evening, we hadn't heard from two of Kuwait's banks.  Today we have.

Gulf Bank of Kuwait - KD28 million (US$98 million) as a participant in an unfunded facility to Dubai World with expiry November 2010.

[12:13:22]  ِ.ايضاح من (خليج ب) بخصوص ديون "دبي العالمية "و"نخيل"‏
يعلن سوق الكويت للاوراق المالية بانه وردالينا الان من بنك الخليج (خليج ب)‏
ما يفيد بان البنك مشارك فى تسهيلات غير ممولة مشتركة لدبي العالمية تنتهي ‏
فى يونيو 2010 قيمتها 28 مليون د.ك ،وافاد البنك بانه بخلاف ذلك ليس ‏
للبنك اية تسهيلات نقدية او غير ذلك من التسهيلات المصرفية او استثمارات ،
سواء مع دبي العالمية او شركة نخيل التابعة لها .‏



Commercial Bank of Kuwait - No exposure

[10:21:43]  ِ.ايضاح من(تجاري) بخصوص ديون "دبي العالمية "و"نخيل"‏
يعلن سوق الكويت للاوراق المالية بانه وردالينا الان من البنك التجاري ‏
الكويتي على ضوء انباء تعثر شركة "دبي العالمية" وطلبها تاجيل سداد ‏
ديونها لفترة ستة اشهر ،افاد البنك انه ليس لديه اية انكشافات مباشرة او ‏
غير مباشرة على شركة "دبي العالمية" او على شركة "نخيل" التابعة لها .‏
 
This rounds out the Kuwaiti banks' exposure.  As expected, nothing of any real size.  Nor anything that poses a threat to the banks.

Link to earlier post on bank exposure.

Japanese Bank Exposure to Dubai - JPY100 Billion

Japanese banks' exposure to Dubai at JPY100 bln -Nikkei - as per Reuters.

DBS Bank Singapore US$1.28 Billion Exposure to Dubai Entities (Mostly in Asia)

SINGAPORE, 30 November 2009 - DBS said today its total exposure to the city-state of Dubai is approx SGD1.8 billion (USD1.28 billion). The bank believes that the situation is manageable as a substantial portion of this is to Dubai owned companies operating in Asia that are sound, such as Labroy and South Beach, which is collateralised.

As of today, the only credit that is captured under the standstill notice is a SGD558 million (USD400 million) bilateral loan to Dubai World Finance which represents 0.2% of DBS’ total balance sheet. The bank has no exposure to Nakheel.

DBS' exposure to the entire Middle East region accounts for around 2% of its balance sheet.

Kuwait Banks Disclose Exposure to Dubai

This won't be a big surprise to anyone out there familiar with GCC banking, but the Kuwaiti banking sector has little to no exposure to Dubai.

Let's run down the statements to date:
  1. National Bank of Kuwait- No exposure to any company owned by Dubai Government.  NBK also pretty much avoided the Suq Al Manakh.  Abu Shukry was at the helm there then.
  2. Boubyan Bank - No exposure to Dubai World or Nakheel.  
  3. Kuwait Finance House KFH - No exposure to Dubai World or Nakheel. 
  4. Ahli Bank of Kuwait - US$20 million in bonds.  No loans.
  5. Kuwait International Bank - No exposure to any Dubai company which has announced a standstill.  This is the "old" Kuwait Real Estate Bank. 
  6. Bank of Kuwait and the Middle East -  No exposure to Dubai World or Nakheel.
  7. Burgan Bank - No exposure to Dubai World or Nakheel.
Not yet reporting Gulf Bank and Commercial Bank of Kuwait.

Also Arab African International Bank Egypt  - in which the Kuwait Investment Authority ("KIA") holds 49.4% or so - disclosed it had US$700 million in loans to companies in the UAE.

As a final word:  This doesn't mean that Kuwaiti banks don't have exposure to other entities or companies in the UAE including Kuwaiti companies and/or individual investors.

UAE Markets Lose AED33 Billion (US$9 Billion)

ADX down 8.2% and DFM 7.3%.  The ADX drop was the largest in is history.  The DFM hasn't had a drop like this for over a year.

On the ADX (Abu Dhabi) there was a broad decline with many stocks down 9% for the day.  While one would expect declines in the banking, real estate and construction sectors, there were also large declines in companies such as Aabar (AD Government owned energy company), Abu Dhabi National Hotels, Agithia Group (Food Company).  Clearly a general market sell-off as investors  rush to liquidity (cash).   Looking at individual stocks, the forward order books are one-sided - all "asks" (sell offers) and no "bids" (buy offers).  That suggests market pressure for tomorrow.

On the DFM (Dubai), essentially all of the market's drop was in the first 45 minutes of trading - from 1970.2 to 1942.6 with a further slight drop to 1940.36 in the last 45 minutes.  I couldn't find the forward order book summary.  But again a quick glance indicates a broad sell off as in Abu Dhabi.  I'd expect more selling pressure tomorrow at the DFM as well.

On Nasdaq Dubai, Dubai Ports lost 14.88% (and earned the distinction of being the stock with the largest drop and the largest trading volume).  You'll recall that the Government announced that DP would not be part of the debt standstill.

Trading patterns suggest an absence of buyers during today's session.  And as indicated above (at least based on ADX data), there don't appear to be many buyers waiting to jump in tomorrow morning. 

Nakheel Asks NasdaqDubai to Suspend Trading in Its Bonds

Apparently in a move to prevent price deterioration  and further negative sentiment towards Dubai World.

Monday, 30 November 2009

First Gulf Bank - A Non Announcement of Its Exposure to Dubai World

Here's the official non announcement from FGB.

Commercial International Bank Egypt - No Exposure to Dubai World or Nakheel

CIB issued a press release this morning on the ADX.

No exposure to Dubai World or Nakheel.

Emirates Business 24/7 Weighs In

Emirates Business 24/7 weighs in.

However, the markets might react, this is Dubai we are talking about. An emirate that has redefined the terms "vision" and "ambition" for the world, which has given it the tallest tower, the largest mall, the tallest hotel, the largest man-made harbour and, in-the-making, the world's largest airport, among a host of other marvels. It has a track-record second to none. Dubai is one of the foremost centres of world gold trade and has indeed been gaining in importance as the preferred global destination for tourism, entrep t, real estate and construction activity, especially over the past three decades.

The Dubai dream lives on. If anything, this latest episode is a sign of Dubai's economic maturity, a clear conscience and commercial intent.

This Is Getting Serious - Dubai Police Intervene For Those Who Have Not Yet Gotten The "Message"

Well, I guess some people are hard to educate (not a real surprise when the intended audience is bankers and journalists  - their past and most likely future behavior indicates a need for more than one lesson).  The sight of a badge may focus some unfocused finds.

In an official press statement carried on WAM, Lt. General Dahi Khalfan Tamim, Dubai Police Commander and Head of the Dubai Government's Budget Committee (I guess there's a logical connection there somewhere between these two positions) noted that:
  1. "... in the whole region, real estate continue to be the top earning sector and that reality investors were still safe from the global slow down."
  2. "Only speculative real estate investors have been affected by the slow down in the sector," he added.
  3. Speaking of the budget process for next year, he remarked:  "The department heads showed remarkable efficiency in setting financial and administrative strategies that will ensure Dubai's continuous excellence," he said.
  4. "Dahi Khalfan pointed out that Dubai has more than a single landmark to be proud of.  'Usually, each of the world's countries has an icon to be proud of. Dubai has many, such as Burj Dubai, Burj Al Arab, Dubai Mall, as well as Dubai International Airport and the Emirates Airlines which are seen as major drivers for tourism.' Dahi Khalfan, who also heads Dubai's Crisis management Team, stated that Dubai government had no debts issue.
  5. "Dubai has rather an issue of unfair competition by some circles which seek to undermine the successful emirates and to unseat it as a global centre for finance and business and a magnet for foreign investments that thrived and succeeded in Dubai." "I noticed that Gulf and foreign media, as well as a large segment of general public, confuse between debts of Dubai government, which are almost non-existent, and the debts of local companies. This confusion should be corrected and the public should be made aware that to separate between the two types of debts." 
  6. "As for the real estate sector, Dahi Khalfan said it should be referred to as a "recovering sector" for the investors who are in the market for medium and long term gains."  AA: Admittedly, I may need another lesson.  I am having trouble reconciling statements #1 and #2 above with this one.  How precisely does the market differentiate in setting a price for a "speculator" from the apparently much higher one it sets for an "investor"?
In any case it's a tradition in some of the "sophisticated" Western countries that when the sheriff speaks up, he has the last word.   As was said a little more than two weeks ago, it is time to be "quiet".  Nothing to see here.  Move along.

Dubai Finance Department Educates Press - Crisis Officially Now Over

Director General of the Dubai Finance Department, Abdul Rahman AlSaleh, has issued a clarification to the market.

The crisis is now officially over.  Time to be "quiet".  I mean just how many times do people have to be told.

The sad thing (a profoundly sad thing for that matter) is that some "sober" bankers and investors actually thought they had government guaranteed paper when they made their loans and investments.   And that they had a "Greenspan put" to the nice sheikh up the road in Abu Dhabi.

And perhaps even more distressing, they will do this yet again in some other venue. 

"But, the government owns it and it undertakes 'strategic' projects". 

It's a general rule of business - I suppose - that government entities always undertake strategic projects, like hotels that are uneconomic (Anyone want to buy a Burj?) or indoor skiing mountains. 

No Time Like Good Times: The Times is Back

Apparently, The Times is back on the newstand.  Or at least the weekday Times.

This is why Abu Arqala always maintains a suitably deferential respect towards the relevant wise leadership - of whatever country.

National Bank of Abu Dhabi US$345 mm to Dubai World Group

NBAD issued a press release detailing its exposure:
  1. US$120 million in the Nakheel Bond
  2. US$100 million general corporate loan to Nakheel
  3. US$125 million to Limitless.

0-3 or 3-0 Red and White Forever

No need to say more.

No News is Good News: The Times Banned

In addition to the press campaign in the UAE about how the world is distorting the story of Dubai  as well as being unfair comes this gem of a news item. 

The authorities have apparently banned The Times.

I recall reading in the past that the ambition was to create a Singapore in the GCC.

Let's chalk this up as a success in that endeavor - at least in one respect.

Islamic Financing & Restructuring Part II - TID Global Sukuk 1

A second installment in my series on Islamic Financing and Restructuring. 

 But first just a note that I am not a lawyer and the following is not legal advice.

Tonight I want to look at The Investment Dar's "TID Global Sukuk 1" issued in September 2006.

Before we set off, let's make sure we have the right gear in our "kit":
  1. AAOIFI February 2008 Sukuk Principles  - You'll recall the issuance of this document was credited with causing turmoil in the market.  Here's Norton Rose's take.
  2. TID Global Sukuk 1 Offering Memorandum  ("OM")
  3. TID Global Sukuk 1 Musharaka Agreement   ("MA")
Some short details on the transaction:
  1. US$150 million issue
  2. Five-year final maturity with Periodic Distribution Profit computed at Libor plus 1.25% for the first three years and then Libor +1.75% for the last two with payments each 20 March and September.
  3. Principal repayment at the final maturity date  (Musharaka End Date).  A "bullet" structure.
  4. Islamic structure - Musharaka (Profit Sharing Agreement).  TID to contribute value in kind in form of Trust Assets  8,532 cars (as per the MA) plus property in Kuwait.  As a result, TID will hold 51.22% of the Musharaka.
  5. Legal structure - limited recourse certificates - recourse is to the Trust Assets.  Additional protection is given by a Purchase Undertaking by TID.  Re the Purchase Undertaking OM Section 8 (Pages 66-67) set forth an Early Redemption Date (voluntary redemption).  OM Section 9 (Pages 67-68) set forth redemption under a Dissolution of the Trust.  You might consider this a guarantee but don't let AAOIFI hear you say that.
     Let's turn to the detail.

    (1) The Trust Assets

    As per the OM page 7 "Proceeds of the Trust Assets are the sole source of payments on the Certificates".

    Let's take a close look at them given their importance.

    As per the MA Section 2.5 (d) "It [TID] shall hold and maintain such registered title as agent for the Musharaka and shall not do or omit to be done any act, matter or thing which will, or might reasonably be expected to, result in either of the Partners [TID and the Sukuk holders] breaching any of its obligations under any Transaction Document."  AA:  In other words, the Trust Assets remain legally registered in the name of TID.  The issue here is similar to that discussed in my earlier post about The International Banking Corporation and its trust arrangements with its parent, Ahmad Hamad AlGosaibi and Brothers.  One needs to be sure that such arrangements are "bullet proof" so that one's trust assets don't wind up in the legal estate of the agent.

    The critical issue for investors then is the strength of the trust agreement and its enforceability under Kuwait law.  Why Kuwait?  Because that's where these assets are located.  The trust indenture itself is drawn under English law as are the other Transaction Documents.   Since the Sukuk certificates are subject to English law, there is some logic in having a key document like the Trust Agreement also subject to English law.  However, marching into a Kuwaiti court with an English law agreement does pose some problems.  Kuwait does not have reciprocal agreements with England to honor each other's court judgements.  And any local judge - not just a Kuwaiti -  may wish to review the case.

    (2) The Purchase Obligation

    As per the OM Sections 8.1 and 8.2 (Page 66), investors have a "put option".  Nor more than 180 days and no less than 120 days prior to the Early Redemption Date (the sixth Periodic Distribution Date, i.e. 20 September 2009), the investors can require the Trustee (TID) to buy all or a portion of their certificates. and the Trustee is legally obliged to buy them.  

    The Purchase Obligation is also triggered by a Dissolution Event (an "event of default" in typical non-Shari'ah finance speak).

    The Purchase Undertaking is included to give investors recourse to TID so that they have a claim on its creditworthiness.  Clearly, the benefit of this arrangement depends on the ability and willingness of the Trustee to make such a purchase.  Assuming it works, TID is in effect an obligor on the certificates. 

    And note, if TID is an obligor (as in a guarantee) but does not pay, that guarantee obligation should be pari passu (equal in status) to funded debt - at least in most jurisdictions.

    The critical issue then is how a court treats the Purchase Undertaking.  Is it the equivalent of a guarantee?  If so, it then becomes an obligation equivalent to a loan made to the Trustee.   TID gives a representation to this effect in the OM on Page 4.  If the Purchase Undertaking is merely a commercial contract, could a court void it?  I don't know enough about Kuwaiti law to provide a definitive answer.  Would a Kuwait court take an English law determination?

    (3) Periodic Distribution Amounts

    Under a Musharaka, the partners participate pro-rata in profits and losses.  Since this is really a borrowing, the transaction has to be structured so that the Sukuk investors get their interest payment only.

    Let's step through the document.

    First, there is the obligatory comment in the OM (Page 3):  "Each Musharaka Partner, pursuant to the Musharaka Agreement, shall be entitled to share in the profits of the Muskahara and bear losses of the Musharaka ratably in accordance with the proportion that such Musharaka Partners' Units in the Musharaka bear to the aggregate of the Units then held by both Musharaka Partners".  AA:  The Shari'ah principle is upheld.

    Second, on the same page:  "The Management Agent [TID] shall be entitled to a management incentive fee computed as provided below.  AA:  Nothing obnoxious to the Shari'ah in compensating the Managment Agent for doing a good job. 

    Third, on the same page:  "The Management Agent is entitled to certain fee ("Incentive Fee") when, in respect of any Accounting Period (as defined herein), the Musharaka Accounts (as defined herein) show a Net Cash Profit payable to the Issuer greater than the Periodic Distribution Profit Amount [Libor plus the margin]".   AA: In other words, any profit over the Periodic Distribution Profit Amount (let's call that interest for the moment) is the Incentive Fee to the Management Agent.   That's some incentive.  But it achieves the goal.  This is a borrowing and the lender is entitled to his interest.  Exercise left for the student:  Are Shari'ah principles pristine at this juncture?   

    (4) Accounting Treatment

    TID's last annual audited statement was issued for Fiscal 2007.  This Sukuk and one issued previously are shown as liabilities in the balance sheet, equivalent to borrowings.  Note 18 describes the Sukuk transactions in more detail. 

    Section 18.2  of that Note states:  "Islamic Sukuk are secured by assignment of finance receivables amounting to KD 18,251,420 as of 31.December 2007 (KD 30,495,918 as of 31 December 2006)."   AA: This structure was approved prior to the AAOIFI February 2008 statement of principles.  While the balance sheet treatment looks uncomfortably close to a loan, one could argue that since TID is the majority owner of the Musharaka, under accounting principles it must consolidate the entire entity.

    (5) Restructuring Issues


    (a) Strength of the Trust Arrangement

    The Sukuk and non Sukuk holder are going to be motivated by their assessment of the value of the assets in the Trust.  If there is real value there, the non Sukuk holder will attack and the Sukuk holder will uphold the Trust Agreement.  If not, the Sukuk holder might try to argue that there was no Trust  so that he can access more assets as a general creditor.  In such a case the non Sukuk holder would argue for the Trust. 
    Another issue has to do with Sukuk holders changing the Trustee.  If the Trustee is in difficulty, getting the Trust Assets registered in another Kuwaiti entity's name - one not in a debt restructuring - would be ideal.  Without the text of the Declaration of Trust, it's not possible to determine  what can be done.    It would be a matter of law as one would expect the English law firms involved in drafting the Transaction Documents would try to incorporate this principle.   The potential "rub" would be Kuwaiti law and practice.

    What's also important here is the precise claim the investors have over the Trust Assets.  Is it merely the proceeds they generate?  Or do the investors have the right to the assets themselves?


    (b) Management Agreement

    What are the circumstances under which the Sukuk investors can replace the Managment Agent?  If the Agent is unable to fulfill his duties, the underlying property might suffer dimunition in value.  Those obligated under the car or property receivables might have a legal right to hold payment.  Or might choose to take advantage of diminished oversight to try to avoid their own obligations.  Again one would expect this to be addressed in the Management Agreement  And like the Trustee issue above, Kuwaiti law and practice would be the practical issues.  There is a disconcerting statement on Page 3 in the OM in the Management Agreement section "... the Management Agent shall be irrevocably appointed as manager of the Musharaka."


    (c) Purchase Undertaking

    Is this the equivalent of a guarantee?  Or a voidable contract?  Again a logical target for a non Sukuk holder creditor to attack.  This would be similar to the attempt made by the non Shari'ah BIB creditors described in my first post on this topic.


    (d) Public Policy

    As a final word, it's important to recognize that public policy is highly likely to influence decisions - not merely the letter of the law.  Countries in the area are unlikely to set precedents which undermine "Islamic banking".


    Central Bank of UAE to Guarantee Dubai World?

    Rumors in market that an announcement will be made before the stock markets open in the UAE today.

    Just a few hours from now.

    Nothing on WAM so far.

    Could last Thursday's announcement been a shrewd move by Dubai in the face of Abu Dhabi reluctance to step up for US$10 billion for the second tranche of the bond issue?

    UPDATE:  No guarantee from the CB UAE or for that matter from the Emirate of Dubai.

    First Gulf Bank Denies Dubai Exposure Reports




    The CEO of FGB has denied his bank has exposure to Dubai World in the amount mentioned in press.

    You'll recall a previous post at SAM which quoted Maktoob that FGB had AED 5 billion (US$1.36 billion) in exposure.

    Another chap no doubt worried that his customers may be a bit nervous when the doors open for business tomorrow.

    Sunday, 29 November 2009

    Shirk Fil Baraada (Unbelief in the Coldstore)

    AA's better half doesn't like her tahini with oil.  Not one to practice taqiya, she is very upfront: she  asks if she may pour off the oil in the store so that none will get mixed with the tahini on the way home.  And, yes, she comes prepared so the shop keeper will not endure any mess.

    Last week, on a mission for choice olives undertaken without AA, who was busy with work, she ventured into our local  Lebanese grocery.  Since Ibn AA  was returning from university for Eid AlShukr, we had decided to prepare hummus (the old fashioned way).   In case you're wondering, yes, as per her mathhab she eats her hummus bidun zayt zaytun.  On the other hand, I  have my own personal bottle.

    In any case, the request to pour off the oil triggered not only dausha but also fauda in the grocery.  One of the "Mutatahiniyin" in the store took away the jar and refused to sell it to her. Others sprang to action to block aisles.  Jars of Tahini were shaken to mix the oil.  Voices were raised.  Takfir was pronounced.

    The missus was, however, unmoved. 

    Eventually a younger more liberal member of the staff  allowed her to make the purchase and to pour off the oil.

    We had excellent hummus.  And, yes, she used AA's personal bottle of zayt zaytun quite liberally on the hummus for Ibn AA and AA.

    I am looking forward to our next trip to the grocery (the olives are fantastic and they sell Cafe Najjar - and we never seem to have enough CN here at bayt AA).  And we're out of tahini!

    My wife on the other hand has her eye on a Pakistani grocery in the neighborhood where such behavior is tolerated though not actively encouraged.

    I suppose I shouldn't mention that she prefers Turkish tahini to Lebanese?

    More Dubai Aftershocks: UAE Central Bank Affirms Support for Banking Sector

    The Central Bank of the UAE issued a press release today:
    1. advising that it was making available an additional liquidity facility to both domestic banks and branches of foreign banks in the Federation
    2. noting that the UAE banking sector was in better shape than it had been one year ago
    3. pointing out that the banking system is composed only of retail banks with stable deposits  "the best banking model"
    4. in light of the previous comment, it noted that UAE banks get most of their funding from customers with interbank deposits only at 10.3% of aggregate liabilities and foreign deposits only 5%
    Issuing such a statement during the Eid Holiday indicates a strong concern at the CB UAE about a potential run on banks tomorrow.

    This is in line with rumors of heightened expat "chatter" about securing their funds.