Tuesday, 16 March 2010

AlGosaibi v. Maan AlSanea: UK Proceedings Witness Statement of Andrew John Ford - Allegations Against Mr. AlSanea

(This is the second in a series of posts which reviews documents filed on the Supreme Court of New York's website in connection with Mashreqbank v AHAB to which AHAB has added Mr. AlSanea as a Third Party Defendant. NY Supreme Court Case Index # 601650/2009.  More details here).

The document in question is one of the Appendices to the Supplemental Affirmation of Robert F. Serio, Esq., of Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher (NY Supreme Court Document 107) , who represent Mr. AlSanea in these proceedings.  He is arguing in his submission in support of the contention that New York is a forum non conveniens.

The Appendix is Serio Exhibit #25 (NY Supreme Court Document 107-2).  What's interesting is that this document is a Witness Statement given in London by AHAB's lawyers.  Mr. Serio has introduced it because he believes it shows that in this document  AHAB (a) "acknowledges the burden of transporting those witnesses from the Middle East to testify", (b) it intends to present in evidence in England "expert evidence on 'Saudi law ... in relation to issues of authority'" and that (c) AHAB further admits "some of the factual evidence will require an interpreter". 

What's interesting are some of the other bits in Mr. Ford's statement.  Before we delve into these, it's very important to note that Mr. Ford represents AHAB and just as Mr. Serio has the interests of his client foremost in his mind so does Mr. Ford.   So as you read both documents, make no mistake that we are dealing with impartial disinterested parties in either case.   Also with respect to Mr. Ford's Witness Statement, he makes several assertions, observations and interpretations.  We need to be very clear of the distinction between an assertion - even one made in the most rigorous good faith - and a proven fact. 

Let's go to his Witness Statement.  The following are direct quotes from that statement:
  1. "Paragraph 13. AHAB says that this borrowing was obtained by the forgery of the signatures of the chairman of AHAB by or at the direction of Mr AI Sanea on hundreds of banking document number: LN65977/1-EU-5542569/2 3 documents. It has submitted many of the banking documents to  forensic examination by Dr Audrey Giles, head of the Giles Document Laboratory and formerly  head of the Questioned Documents Section of the Metropolitan Police Forensic Science Laboratory. Dr Giles' work has been hampered by the lack of original documents (many of which were removed from the Money Exchange by Mr AI Sanea and which he has refused to return). Nevertheless she has so far concluded that there is evidence that the signatures on at least 286 banking documents are not  genuine. On some documents, signatures have been applied by colour photocopying or by an inkjet printer and then traced over with a porous-tip pen; on others, the signatures are identical matches of  those on other documents and therefore highly unlikely to be genuine. In some cases the signatures  were applied to documents at a time when it would have been physically impossible for the  purported author to have signed because of incapacitating illness."
  2. "Paragraph 14. The scale of the alleged fraud is enormous. A large team of forensic accountants from Deloitte has been investigating the fraud on behalf of AHAB since the end of May 2009. Their work is continuing, but their analysis to-date shows that over US$5.2 billion has been paid out from the Money Exchange to Mr AI Sanea or to companies controlled by him. The outstanding total of  unauthorised borrowing arranged by Mr AI Sanea, including accrued interest, commitment fees and related charges, appears to exceed US$9.2 billion, sourced from some 118 banks around the world."
And just to end where we began.   The above are allegations by the counsel for AHAB against Mr. AlSanea.  As you might expect, both Mr. AlSanea and his counsel vigorously deny any wrongoing.  As far as I know, no Court has rendered a judgment in this matter yet.  And so these remain allegations.

AlGosaibi v Maan AlSanea: What Does Arrest Mean?

(This is the first post reviewing documents submitted in Case 601650/2009.  More details here).

There's been a lot of speculation on this issue - some of it informed and some not so well informed, including right here on this blog.

Some new information has emerged on this topic in the form of a legally sworn statement by one of the parties.

As you perhaps know, Ahmad Hamad al Gosaibi and Brothers (AHAB) added Maan AlSanea as a Third Party Defendant to the case brought against them in the Supreme Court of New York (Case Index #601650/2009).

Mr. AlSanea has been arguing that New York is a forum non conveniens. Therefore, the case should be dropped or that he should be severed from the case.

On 9 March 2010, Document #106 was published on the Supreme Court's website under Case 601650/2009.  

It is an affidavit from Mr. AlSanea containing arguments why NY is inconvenient.  These include the usual arguments you'd expect:  (a) many documents relating to the case are in Arabic, (b) the sudden discovery of profound lack of English skills among witnesses (including several who previously  were able to routinely negotiate and conduct complex multi-million dollar transactions in English and who were involved in the running of global multi-billion dollar businesses in English), (c) none of the witnesses live in the USA, (d) the robust legal procedures in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,  and so on. You should, of course, read Mr. AlSanea's affidavit to understand his argument in full so that you can judge its merits for yourself.

What's pertinent to this post is a new defense:  many of the key witnesses are under travel bans. And  taking this document on its face enables us to make some definitive statements about the legal status of some of the parties involved.

First, we learn that these parties are not currently incarcerated.  Nor would it appear that they have placed under house arrest - where they are confined to their residences.   

Rather they are forbidden to leave the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia or the Kingdom of Bahrain.  Usually, this procedure involves the surrender of one's passport and a "notation"  in the records of  the "Customs and Immigration Officers" at border crossings, including airports.
In his affidavit, Mr. AlSanea lists the following individuals subject to travel bans:
  1. Himself - by Saudi Arabia
  2. Yousef, Saud, Dawood, AbdulMuhsin, Waleed Kamal Ahmad Hamad Al Gosaibi - who Mr. AlSanea understands are subject to similar travel bans imposed by Saudi Arabia.  Note that caveat.
  3. Mr. Alistair McLeod, Former Acting CEO of Awal Bank, resident of Bahrain and subject to a travel ban imposed by Bahrain.
  4. Mr. Anthony James, Former COO of Awal Bank, resident of Bahrain and subject to a travel ban, imposed by Bahrain.
  5. Mr. Cliff Giddings, Former Head of Operations of Awal Bank, resident of Bahrain and subjectd to a travel ban imposed by Bahrain.
  6. Mr. Mateen AK Mirza, Former Head of Treasury at Awal Bank, resident of Bahrain and subject to a travel ban imposed by Bahrain.
  7. Mr. Yasser Al Sharif, Former Risk Manager of Awal Bank, resident of Saudi Arabia but subject to a travel ban by Bahrain.  (Confess I'm not clear how this would work legally.  If he's not resident in Bahrain, he would seem to be outside Bahrain's legal control).
It's very important to note two things:
  1. The imposition of a "travel ban" on an individual is not a finding of guilt.  Nor is it necessarily an indication of the suspicion of guilt.  Often witnesses who can give testimony material to an investigation are banned from traveling so that they will be available to the court.  Of course travel bans are also imposed on individuals who may be  later charged with some wrongdoing.   Though being charged and being guilty can be two different things.  As per Mr. AlSanea's affidavit, you will note that both sides in the dispute - the AlGosaibis and Mr. AlSanea himself - are subject to a travel ban.
  2. The Court will make the final legal judgment of quilt in this matter.  As far as I know, no Court has yet rendered such a verdict.

New York Supreme Court: Mashreqbank v AlGosaibi - 9 March 2010 Documents

Last week a new batch of  documents relating to the legal case between Mashreqbank and Ahmad Hamad AllGosaibi and Brothers ("AHAB")  (NY Supreme Court Case Index # 601650/2009) and  the legal case between Mashreqbank and the Partners of AHAB (NYSC Case Index # 602171/2009) was published on the Supreme Court of New York's website.  You can go to that link to read these documents in their entirety - which I highly recommend.  There's no substitute for the original source documents. 

In addition to the usual partisan pleadings common to such cases, these documents contain some interesting information.  And you might find some of the assertions in the documents submitted by both sides a source of hilarity.  I still get a chuckle about the guy who ran a multi-billion dollar empire in English but suddenly can barely understand the language.

We'll largely ignore the former and concentrate on the latter in a series of posts to follow. 

Dubai World - When is a Haircut Not a Haircut? Apparently, When We Say It Isn't.


The National has an article describing the various options to be offered creditors of Dubai World which contains some real howlers:

Creditors will be offered "new debt".  

While I'll admit this is conventional "banker speak", a rescheduled loan is about as new as that recycled left over on your dinner table.  It's the same old debt in a slightly different package..  It's like the dinner from Saturday that you quite didn't finish that turns up on your plate on Sunday.  It's not a new meal even if your wife has added Hamburger Helper.  A new loan would be a voluntary extension of credit.  Trapped money is the financial equivalent of a leftover.


But the real gem is the following.
“Receiving 100 per cent of the principal and zero per cent interest is better than taking a 30 to 40 per cent haircut. On this basis, the banks involved will not have to incur a loss other than the time value of money which is not insignificant but may be better than the alternative,” said Jawad Ali, the managing partner of the Middle East offices of the law firm of King and Spalding.

If you get back less money from a debtor than you advanced after taking into consideration the time value of money, it's a haircut.  A loss is a loss.  Pretending it is something else makes as much sense as saying that Dubai World wanted to help banks have solid earning assets on their books so its extending the maturities on its loans to help them out. 

As I pointed out in an earlier post, equal amortization of a loan over five years at a 5% interest rate is equivalent to a 13% haircut and at 10% a 24% haircut if one were being paid back immediately.   

Also as I noted, reputable firms of accountants working in reasonably developed  markets would apply IFRS (or US GAAP) and require a bank to  recognize an impairment against the asset.  And guess what, the loan would be written down using present value techniques - which recognize the time value of money.

However, in this matter I will defer to learned counsel's assessment of the firms and markets he practices in.  Financial institutions from developed countries will see right through this transparent scenario.

Idiocy Knows No Borders: The Manifest Danger of Women's Football

Several MPs in Kuwait have discovered a fundamental threat to Kuwaiti civilization and Islam.  

No, it's not misleading practices in the Kuwaiti stock market, where unwary retail investors are periodically sheared like sheep, nor a woeful lack of ethics in the conduct of business that has led to the looting of many a company and banks being stuck with duff loans, nor is it corruption where the wealth of the country is whistled away.  

No, it's something much more serious.  It is women's football!

But the Reform and Development Party has taken one of its usual principled stands against this dire threat.  

As a side note, we've got to find the guy who named this group the  "Reform" and "Development" Party.  I would have thought in a rich country like Kuwait dictionaries would be available.    

As JD Hayworth will not doubt helpfully point out, first comes women's football, then the next thing you know there will be music lessons in schools, and then it end with camels marrying horses.   Or watchmen on farms ....

I suspect a constitutional amendment to ban burning of the Kuwaiti flag might just forestall collapse -  if it's not too late already.

Monday, 15 March 2010

Adeem Investment Company - Significant Progress Made

As you know, we at Suq Al Mal have been closely following progress over at AIC on its project to complete "their unscheduled maintenance to upgrade our systems to better serve you".

Significant progress has been made since we first noticed this effort was underway 18 November.

Since then, we've learned that Adeem's crack IT Team is a a virtual F-1 race with GFH to see who will get their corporate website fixed first.

Gulf Finance House are laboring day and night to update GFH's ratings page on their website.  As you probably know, they have yet to reflect the November 2009 downgrade by S&P.

While many think that AIC has an insurmountable lead because they started first and because S&P has downgraded GFH multiple times since that first November downgrade, I'm not yet ready to count out the GFH Team.

The heart of the Gulf is racing!  And we here at SAM are calling the "play by plays" as they occur.

Stay tuned.  It looks like this race is going to be down to the wire.  Por una cabeza as the saying goes.

Kingdom Holding Company Makes Offer to Acquire Minority Shares in Kingdom Hotel


KHC has made an offer to acquire the minority shareholders' stake in Kingdom Hotels at US$5.00 per share, contingent on achieving a minimum 75% ownership.

Here's the press release on the offer and summary 2009 financial results.

Global Investment House - Press Release on 2009 Financials


GIH has issued a press release on its 2009 financials.  I thought you might want a more optimistic take on their 2009 performance than that published yesterday on this site.  When you've got the right attitude, you can find success just about anywhere.  And I suppose the contrary may be true as well.

Note the whopping KD5.6 million paid for the restructuring.  

A couple of comments in the press release caught my eye:

In commenting on 2009 legal expenses GIH said: "Global believes that legal and advisory costs relating to the Company’s debt default were of a one-off nature."   Seems reasonable unless they're planning another restructuring.

"Global has adopted best international practices in corporate governance to ensure not only the achievement of a strengthened corporate governance environment, but  to also lead the industry by example."   Лучше поздно чем никогда! 

The Investment Dar - Court Accepts TID's Petition to Enter FSL Process


TID announced on the KSE Sunday that Advisor Muhammad Abdullah AlWunyan, Agent for the Court of Appeals,  Member of the Technical Committee, and Head of the Special Office for Company Restructuring had accepted the petition and accompanying documents submitted by TID to place its restructuring under the Financial Stability Law.

According to the FSL, the acceptance of this request means that legal proceedings are now stayed.   However, this is not the end of the matter.   This now launches the procedure described in my earlier post.  Here's some additional background on the FSL.

Creditors have fifteen days after receipt of notice to object to the stay.  If there are no objections or if there are but the stay is upheld, then the Court has to determine the financial position of TID and whether with the restructuring TID can function as a going concern.   Whether the Court will accept the work already done by the Creditors' Co-Ordinating Committee or require this work to be performed again will become clearer as more time passes. 

Arabic text of TID's press release below.


[13:0:22]  ِ.تطورات خطة اعادة الهيكلة المالية لشركة دار الاستثمار ‏
يعلن سوق الكويت للاوراق المالية بان شركة دار الاستثمار افادت بانها تقدمت ‏
بطلب الى رئيس الدائرة الخاصة بطلبات اعادة هيكلة الشركات بمحكمة الاستئناف ‏
طبقا لاحكام المرسوم بالقانون 2 لسنة 2009 بشان تعزيز الاستقرار المالي .‏
وبتاريخ 11-03-2010 قرر المستشار محمد عبد الله الونيان وكيل محكمة ‏
الاستئناف وعضو المكتب الفني ورئيس الدائرة الخاصة بطلبات اعادة هيكلة ‏
الشركات بمحكمة الاستئناف قبول الطلب المقدم من شركة دار الاستثمار بشان ‏
الدخول فى قانون تعزيز الاستقرار المالي والمستندات المرفقة به وامر ادارة ‏
الكتاب بالمحكمة باستيفاء باقي الاجراءات المقررة بالمرسوم رقم 2 سنة 2009 ‏
بشان تعزيز الاستقرار المالي.‏
واستنادا الى نصوص المرسوم بالقانون رقم 2 لسنة 2009 بشان تعزيز الاستقرار ‏
المالي يترتب على قبول رئيس الدائرة الخاصة بطلبات اعادة هيكلة الشركات ‏
بمحكمة الاستئناف لهذا الطلب وقف كافة اجراءات التقاضي والتنفيذ المدنية ‏
والتجارية المتعلقة بالتزامات الشركة وذلك لحين الانتهاء من التصديق على خطة
اعادة الهيكلة .‏

ADIA Investment in Citigroup - Time For Conversion


When looking at ADIA's new website and its first ever annual review for 2009 (no, not financials) and reading about prudent investment strategy and their good return over the past years, I was reminded of the US$7.5 billion investment in mandatory convertible Citigroup securities.   

If I'm not mistaken the conversion date is sometime this week, at least for some of the amount.  

Earlier posts here and here and here too.

And from the annual review some interesting info:
  1. Page 3: 80% of assets managed by "carefully selected" external fund managers monitored by ADIA daily.
  2. Page 3: 60% of assets in index replicating strategies.
  3. Page 3:  Average annual returns as of 31 December 2009.  20 Years 6.5% pa. 30 Years 8.0% p.a.
  4. Page 10:  Outline of Investment Strategy.
  5. Page 11:  Description of Portfolio Allocations.  Note the comment about not investing in the UAE or GCC - which by the way makes perfect sense given the mission of ADIA.
  6. Page 17:  Funding including supply of funds back to the Government of Abu Dhabi.
There's more: description of manager selection process, internal departments, board committees, etc. etc. .  All in all a pretty good guide to ADIA for those who don't know much about them.  And probably some "news" even for those who think they already do.

A job well done.  And good luck straightening out that Citigroup investment.

IMF Report: Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on GCC Countries and Challenges Ahead


May Khamis and Abdelhak Senhadji co-ordinated a team comprising Maher Hasan, Francis Kumah,  Ananthakrishnan Prasad, and Gabriel Sensenbrenner to prepare this report - which is well worth a read.

As I've mentioned before (and am likely to do in the future), reports like this are not only interesting "autopsies" but can serve as diagnostic tools for investors and lenders during underwriting stage as well as later during the all important monitoring phase.  The second best thing to knowing whether to get into an investment is knowing when to get out.  Not in the sense of calling the market top, but recognizing when the car is racing towards the brick wall.  Studies like this can provide some useful (and very common sense) warning indicators.

Here's the link to the study.

And here are my comments on early warning indicators.
  1. Page 10 - "Non Productive" Sector Lending.  When bank loans are being excessively funneled into construction, real estate and securities purchases, you know that there are problems ahead.   Particularly if this continues for more than a year to two.
  2. Page 11 Figure 7 - Excessive Credit Growth.  Growth above the growth in GDP.  Amounts over  12 to 15% per annum for more than a couple years.  Also Figure A3 on page 55.
  3. Page 15 Figure 14 - Leverage.  As companies take on more debt, they have less flexibility in a downturn. When the "boom" is caused by lending to non productive sectors, to finance punting in securities, when the downturn comes it's going to be a hard landing.
  4. Page 26 Figure 24 - Increased Reliance on Foreign Banks for Financing.  This is a double edged sword.  Usually this financing is denominated in foreign not local currency.  When the downturn comes the borrowers are even more hard pressed to replace or refinance as foreign investors are generally the first to turn tail and run.  With GCC currencies generally pegged to the US Dollar the issue of replacing foreign currency borrowings is less than say it would be in Argentina.
  5. Page 55 Figure A4 - High Loan to Deposit Ratios.  A clear sign of a lack of real liquidity in the banking sector and a vulnerability to depositor withdrawal or failure of lenders to provide financing.
And some interesting slides.
  1. Page 31 Box 2 highlights the vulnerabilities of neighboring labor exporting countries on declines in the GCC markets as well as potential changes in labor needs.  You'll see that Yemen and Jordan are particularly exposed as remittances are a significant portion of their GDP from remittances - 7%.
  2. Page 33 - Kuwait Investment Companies on and off balance sheet assets represent 100% of GDP and 56% of Kuwaiti banks capital.  A rather scary thought given the profound distress in the investment company sector.
  3. Pages 49-52 Annex I - GCC Country policy responses.
  4. Pages 59-65 Annex II - A rather "optimistic" view of the state of regulation in the GCC.

Sunday, 14 March 2010

Saudi Arabia Capital Markets Authority Withdraws License of Ernst and Young Consulting Saudi Arabia For Cause

The Saudi CMA announced today that it had withdrawn the license of Ernst and Young Saudi Arabia Consulting.  E&YSAC had been given a license to conduct arranging and advising activities in the Kingdom.

The license was canceled due to  "مخالفتها لعدد من أحكام نظام السوق المالية ولوائحه التنفيذية."  That is, for violations of the Saudi Capital Markets Law and its implementing resolutions.

The CMA also canceled the license for Tarteeb Securities Company (also for advising and arranging activities) but this was at Tarteeb's request.

And finally the CMA fined Al-Jouf Company for Agricultural Development  SR50,000 for failing to report its Finance Director's resignation (3 July 2009) until 25 January 2010.  Here's the link to Al-Jouf's page at the Tadawul.

Global Investment House - Initial Comments on 2009 Financials


More detailed analysis will require a copy of GIH's complete 2009 financials, but here are some initial  and very quick comments.  All amounts rounded to nearest KD 1 million.

LIABILITIES & EQUITY

We'll start here because GIH's central issue is now management of its capital structure, repayment of liabilities while maintaining sufficient capital to support debt market funding (based on the assumption that GIH is a going concern and intends to continue business after repaying its debt). 
  1. Total Liabilities and Equity declined KD420 million.
  2. Total Liabilities down KD303 million.
  3. Total Equity down KD 117 million.
LIABILITIES
  1. As noted above, a KD303 million decline.
  2. GIH has changed its presentation from the original 2008 annual report and from that in its 3Q09 annual report.  Something that makes analysis a bit more difficult.  What was the change?  Previously, Wakala deposits were broken out.  KD143.5 million at 31 December 2008.  KD44.6 million at 3Q09.  I'm always a bit suspicious when presentation changes like these occur which are not caused by the implementation of new accounting standards.  What could be the reason?  Without the 2009 notes, it's not clear if all Wakala have been repaid.  But I'm guessing they have.  Looking at GIH's 3Q09 financials, we see that some KD23 million in Wakala were repaid during the first nine months of 2009 along with KD18 million in other short term borrowings for a total of KD41 million.  In the full year 2009 KD34 million of short term borrowings are shown as being repaid.  Hard to explain how GIH could unrepay roughly KD6 million (lower figure reflects impact of rounding to nearest million).  Perhaps there will be something in the notes.  What we do know looking at 31 December 2008 and 30 September 2009 is that Wakala were down some KD99 million.  Since Wakala no longer appear as a separate category, they may have been reduced to zero.  In which case KD143 million would have been repaid.  Of which it would appear only KD23 million in cash.  The rest through asset swaps.  You'll recall that GIH had borrowed some rather large unconscionable amounts from Global MENA Financial Assets.   Now if I remember things correctly, GIH said it had stopped all payments to creditors in December 2008.  So these creditors got out.  The rest of GIH's creditors are "stuck" in a multi-year restructuring.
  3. In fact on a gross basis - excluding GIH's bonds - borrowed funds have decreased some KD191 million from FYE 2008 to FYE 2009.  Repayments of only KD34 million are shown in GIH's Consolidated Cashflow Statement so the rest were either forgiven (highly unlikely) or settled via asset exchanges. 
  4. Also GIH's bonds were down some KD29 million.  This brings the decline to KD220 million.
  5. For a company with a debt standstill, it sure seems a lot of debt was "retired" during 2009.
  6. Finally "Other Liabilities" are down some KD83 million.  Looking at the 3Q09 financials, this appears to have been concentrated in Payable for Investment Properties which was down some KD63 million at 30 September 2009.  We'll have to wait for the full 2009 report to determine what were the sources of the other KD20 million.
 EQUITY 
  1. Two movements in Equity which resulted in the overall KD117 million decline.  
  2. A reduction in controlling interests share of Equity by approximately KD141 million.  This is the net loss of KD148.8 million offset by a variety of factors, primarily a KD11 million increase in fair value on available for sale assets not taken through the P&L.
  3. An increase in non controlling interests equity position by KD24 million (from KD36.3 mm to KD59.9 million).  Unclear what is behind this.  Perhaps, GIH sold shares in some of its associates to other shareholders?  There are a couple of tantalizing cash inflows in the Investing Activities section of GIH's 2009 Consolidated Cashflow Statement.  But without details its hard to say.
ASSETS
  1. Two major drops. 
  2. Financial Assets Fair Valued Through the P&L of KD173 million.
  3. KD103 million in Investments in Associates.
  4. To be looked at in more depth when full financials are available.
INCOME
  1. Without the notes, I don't see much point in spending a lot of time on revenues.  Net net they were about the same as in 2008.   A loss of more than KD40 million. The question is when GIH can turn this around.  If it is to remain a going concern, it needs to get revenues going again.  Cost cutting is only to get it so far.
  2. GIH's net income improved primarily from lower impairment provisions - roughly KD125 million lower than 2008.
  3. A few items caught my eye.  Personnel Expenses were KD12 million in 2009 versus KD7 million in 2008.  Is this separation payments?   It doesn't look like there's a footnote for this expense category, but we'll have to wait until the 2009 financials to see if there's a further explanation.  Perhaps even curiouser is the treatment of these expenses in 3Q09 financials  when PE for the first nine months of 2009 and 2008 are shown as KD 7 million and KD 15 million.
  4. Other operating expenses were KD20 million versus KD 14 million in 2008.  Cost of the restructuring?  Also a similar anomaly in 3Q09 financials where the respective numbers for the first nine months of 2009 and 2008 are shown as KD14 million and KD8 million.
  5. Also interesting is the share of the net loss attributable to non controlling shareholders.  It's 0.38% for 2009 and 1.05% for 2008.  Non controlling interests of course are not necessarily in all of GIH's in the same percentage.  From 3Q09 financials, it seems there was a turnaround in 3Q.

Global Investment House - KD 148.8 Million Loss for Fiscal 2009


GIH announced its 2009 audited annual results today.  Below is the press release on the KSE.  The English press release and the Arabic on the Bahrain Stock Exchange include extracts from the actual financial report. 

Here are the 2009 numbers followed by the 2008 comparatives in italics.
  1. Net Income KD148.826 mm (US$520.9 mm).  KD257.649 mm (US$901.8 mm) 
  2. Total Current Assets KD494.030 mm.   KD813.93 mm.
  3. Total Assets KD832.759 mm.  KD1,251.763 mm.
  4. Total Current Liabilities KD80.792 mm.   KD759.099 mm.
  5. Total Liabilities 609.981 mm.  KD912.979 mm.
  6. Shareholders' Equity KD162.853 mm.  KD303.487 mm.
As you might expect would occur right after a rescheduling, GIH's auditors have raised an emphasis of matter regarding the going-concern assumption on which the 2009 financial statements were prepared. They note that GIH's management is confident that the Company can continue its activities as a going concern.  The Auditors also call attention to the KD71.2 mm deposit which the National Bank of Umm AlQaiwain is blocking and which is the subject of a lawsuit between GIH and NBUQ.  Earlier posts on that topic here and here.

The press release also notes that the Board has decided not to distribute any cash dividends this year, which seems a wise move given the loss.  One would also expect that GIH's creditors may have had a hand in this matter - one way or the other - since no doubt they are trying to capture all cashflows for the worthy purpose of reducing their exposure. 

One other point worthy of note the CBK approved GIH's financials on 11 March.  Given the weekend, this is very prompt disclosure on GIH's part.

After another cup of Turkish coffee, I'll post some initial comments on the financials.

KSE press release below.  As usual Arabic only.

[9:25:37]  مجلس ادارة (جلوبل) يوصي بعدم توزيع ارباح عن عام 2009‏
يعلن سوق الكويت للأوراق المالية أن مجلس ادارة بيت الاستثمار العالمي
ِ(جلوبل) قد اعتمد البيانات المالية السنوية للشركةللسنة المالية المنتهية ‏
في 31-12-2009، وفقا لما يلي:‏
ِ1) نتائج أعمال البنك:‏
البند          السنة المنتهية في 31-12-09   السنة المنتهية في 31-12-08‏
الربح (الخسارة)(د.ك)       (148.826.000)         (257.649.000)‏
ربحية (خسارة) السهم(فلس كويتي)       (122)                  (225)‏
اجمالي الموجودات المتداولة   494.030.000            813.930.000‏
اجمالي الموجودات            832.759.000           1.252.763.000‏
اجمالي المطلوبات المتداولة      80.792.000            759.099.000‏
اجمالي المطلوبات             609.981.000            912.979.000‏
اجمالي حقوق المساهمين      162.833.000            303.487.000‏
بلغ اجمالي الايرادات من التعاملات مع الاطراف ذات الصلة مبلغ 261.000 د.ك
بلغ اجمالي المصروفات من التعاملات مع الاطراف ذات الصلة مبلغ 1.936.000 د.ك
علما بأن بنك الكويت المركزي قد وافق على هذه البيانات المالية بتاريخ
ِ11-03-2010.‏
ِ2) التوزيعات المقترحة:‏
أوصى مجلس ادارة الشركة بعدم توزيع اى ارباح عن السنة المالية المنتهية
في 31-12-2009 .‏
ِ3) أفادت الشركة ان تقرير مراقبي الحسابات يحتوى على التأكيد على موضوع على ‏
النحو التالي :‏
بدون التحفظ في رأينا ، نلفت الانتباه الى الامور التاليه :‏
أ) كما هو مبين في الايضاح رقم 29 حول البيانات الماليه المجمعه المرفقه ،
تخلفت الشركة الام في 15-ديسمبر-2008 عن سداد تسهيلات مشتركه بمبلغ ‏
ِ200 مليون دولار أمريكي (55 مليون د.ك) و بالتالي ، علقت سداد اى مدفوعات ‏
مستحقه من أصول الدين لصالح البنوك و المؤسسات الماليه بعد ذلك التاريخ ،
و قد أدى التخلف عن السداد هذا الى تفعيل أحكام استحقاق كافة الالتزامات ‏
القائمه الوارده ضمن مستندات الاقتراض للمجموعه و بالتالي اخفاق للمجموعه ‏
في تسديد كامل التزاماتها ، بالنسبه للسنه الماليه المنتهيه في 31-ديسمبر-08‏
فإننا لم نتمكن من الحصول على أدلة تدقيق كافيه و موثوق فيها لتحديد ما اذا ‏
كانت المجموعه سوف تتمكن من الوصول الى اتفاق حول اعادة هيكلة التزامات ‏
الدين و تحديد قدرتها على متابعة أعمالها على اساس مبدأ الاستمراريه، لذلك
فأننا لم نعبر عن رأينا حول البيانات الماليه المجمعه للسنه الماليه ‏
المنتهيه في 31-ديسمبر-2008 في تقرير التدقيق المؤرخ في 3-فبراير-2009.‏
في 10-ديسمبر-2009 ، وقع اعضاء مجلس ادارة الشركة الام اتفاقيه مع مقرضي
المجموعه لإعادة هيكلة التزامات الدين . و كنتيجه لتوقيع اتفاقيه
اعادة هيكلة الدين ،  فإن إدارة الشركة الام على ثقه من قدرة المجموعة ‏
على متابعة اعمالها على أساس مبدأ الاستمراريه . و بالتالي ، فإننا الان
في وضع يمكننا من ابداء الرأي حول البيانات الماليه المجمعه للمجموعه ‏
للسنة الماليه المنتهيه في 31-ديسمبر-2009.‏
ب) كما هو مبين في الايضاح 24 حول البيانات الماليه المجمعه المرفقه فيما
يتعلق بالدعوة القضائيه المرفوعه من قبل الشركة الام ضد بنك في دولة ‏
الامارات العربيه المتحده بخصوص الافراج عن وديعه بمبلغ 71.8 مليون د.ك
ِ(31-ديسمبر-2008 : 69.1 مليون د.ك ) لاتحمل فائدة .‏
ِ- فقرة الرأي : ‏
في رأينا ان البيانات الماليه المجمعه تعبر بصورة عادله  من جميع النواحي ‏
الماديه عن المركز المالي للمجموعه في 31-ديسمبر-2009 و عن أدائها
المالي و تدفقاتها النقديه للسنه المنتهيه بذلك التاريخ وفقا للمعايير ‏
الدوليه للتقارير الماليه المطبقه في دولة الكويت .‏
و عليه سوف تعاد الشركة للتداول بعد عشر دقائق من نزول الاعلان .

Global Investment House Announces Sale of Egyptian Real Estate Subsidiary to Arab African International Bank

GIH announced today that it had sold all its shares in Egypt Real Estate Finance House to Arab African International Bank Cairo for 46 Million Egyptian Pounds (roughly KD2.4 million) and that it would recognize a KD0.2 million profit on the sale in its 1Q10 financials.

Under its restructuring agreement, GIH is to sell "non core" assets essentially abandoning proprietary investments - both equities and real estate.

Here's an earlier story on this transaction with some background information.

Mashreqbank v AlGosaibi Heirs: Ruling Against Mashreq

Last week the Supreme Court of New York updated its website for filings in two cases brought by Mashreqbank against the AlGosaibis.  AlGosaibi heirs refer to the 20 individuals who are the partners in Ahmad Hamad AlGosaibi and Brothers.

To put what follows in context, Mashreqbank has filed three cases in the Supreme Court of New York.
  1. A case against The International Banking Corporation which has been effectively stayed by a filing under Chapter 15 of Title 11.  This effectively "ended" Mashreq's case in NY.
  2. A case against Ahmad Hamad al Gosaibi and Brothers (the partnership as an entity).  In its response AHAB added Maan AlSanea as a Third Party Defendant.  This is NY Supreme Court Case Index #601650/2009.
  3. A case against the twenty individuals comprising the AHAB partnership.   This is NY Supreme Court Case Index #602171/2009.
I printed out a massive stack of documents from the latter two cases and have been merrily reading away the AHAB case documents.  I noticed that the stack of documents from Case #3 above was much smaller.  So I've turned my attention temporarily to that case.

Two developments.

First, as noted above, Justice Richard Lowe III has ruled against Mashreqbank's motion for the Court to order an attachment of defendants' assets, personal property, funds and electronic funds transfers that are located in New York.   He has done so "without prejudice" meaning that Mashreqbank can attempt to remedy the defects in its pleading and file again to obtain the order.  The ruling is dated 25 February 2010 but was only filed on the Supreme Court website on 8 March.  If you want to look yourself, this is document #46.  Instructions on how to access the Supreme Court Website are here.  Be sure to use the right Case Index Number 602171/2009 when you search.

What was the problem?  

The lawsuit concerns two FX deals that Masreqbank undertook.  One with AHAB (the US$150 million which is the subject of Case #2 above) and one with TIBC (which is the subject of Case #1 above).  The transactions themselves were not directly with the partners in AHAB.  

Mashreqbank's lawyers failed to "join" the two contracting parties (AHAB and TIBC) to this lawsuit.  

And in the words of Justice Lowe:  
"To state a contractual cause of action against the individual partners where the partnership is not joined, the complaint must allege that the partnership is insolvent or otherwise unable to meet its obligations."
Mashreqbank has not done this in this case.

Perhaps equally or more important (since Justice Lowe is also on the "bench" for Case #2 above), Mashreqbank has not joined the partners as defendants in Case #2 above. This seems a potentially "fatal" flaw.

Speaking about precedent case Vets North, Inc v Libutti 9278 AD2d 406, 407 [2d Dept 2000]) in which Vets North had not joined the partners and then tried to enforce a judgment against the partners:
The Court determined that plaintiff could not enforce the judgment, because the partners had not been named in the proceeding against the partnership.  "Resort to the personal assets of individual partners is possible only as to those general partners who were named individually as defendants and personally served with process in the proceeding which resulted in the judgment." (id; see also Tally v 885 Real Estate Associates, 11 AD3d 242, 242 [1st Dept 2004])
It looks like Mashreqbank's counsel has some filing to do in both cases.  Since their motion was denied without prejudice they get a second bite at the apple.  (Sorry, I couldn't resist the pun).

The second was that earlier Mashreqbank (14 January 2010) had agreed to drop Mr. AlSanea's wife (Sana Abdulaziz Hamad alGosaibi) as a defendant.  The stipulation (Document #45) is  rather short and gives no reason for this move.  It would seem to me that Mashreqbank would be looking to line up as many pockets  as it could to ensure that it retrieves all the money owed it.   And that amount is not inconsiderable.  Beyond the cases in New York, Mashreqbank has filed a case in the UAE for a total amount of AED1,457,164,610.14 (US$397,047,577.70).

Given all that is at stake, letting Ms. Sana off the hook is a rather curious move indeed.

    2-1

    In the race.

    Saturday, 13 March 2010

    The Investment Dar - Issues Press Release on Filing under Financial Stability Law


    Here's Investment Dar's press release announcing they had filed for protection under the FSL.  

    Looks like they're having something problems with their  HTML code as the formatting in the press release is askew.

    You can access earlier posts on TID by using the label "The Investment Dar".  And on the Financial Stability Law by using the label "Financial Stability Law".

    Friday, 12 March 2010

    Idiocy Knows No Borders: Start a Hedge Fund From Your Garage


    A whole new meaning to the financial term "get taken for a ride".

    The investors' due diligence must have been great on this HF, particularly the questions on the professional background and competence of the principals of the firm.

    Mashreqbank v AlGosaibi – Analysis of FX Deals

    This post is based on the affidavit (including appendices) submitted by Bruce R. Grace, Esq. of Baach Robinson & Lewis PLLC, who are the attorneys for Ahmad Hamad AlGosaibi & Brothers Company ("AHAB") in the above lawsuit. Attorney Grace submitted these documents to the Supreme Court of the State of New York on 5 February 2010. They were filed as Document #83. But since then for some reason there's been a change. Document #83 has been deleted and it and each of the exhibits contained have been filed as separate documents all dated 25 February. The specific document used as the basis for this post and referred to herein is Document #87-1. 

    You can access electronic documents filings for this case at the Supreme Court of New York's website (http://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/webcivil/FCASMain). Search using Case Index #601650/2009. Follow the steps. You have to go through several pages. On the page labeled "WebCivil Supreme – Case Detail" go to the bottom of the page and click on the "Show EFiled Documents" button.

    As usual, a caveat. As you read documents filed in the case, keep in mind that each side's lawyers are not disinterested partisans of truth. They are hired to represent their clients.

    From the documents I've read it's clear that both parties agree that there was an FX transaction in the name of AHAB with Mashreqbank under which Mashreqbank was to pay US$150 million to AHAB's account at Bank of America on 28 April 2009 and AHAB was to pay SAR564.3 million to Mashreqbank value 5 May 2009. They also agree that Mashreq fulfilled its side of the contract but that AHAB did not.

    As you'd expect both parties have different views about this latter fact. Here's how I would summarize their arguments. AHAB has two key contentions. First that they were the victim of a fraud perpetrated by Mr. AlSanea. And second that from the nature and pattern of the deals Mashreq should have known the deals themselves were questionable. Therefore, Mashreq is in some sense complicit. On its part, Mashreqbank has vigorously denied knowledge of any wrongdoing in the deals and asserts that it was acting in commercial good faith. The Bank also argues that the instructions it received appeared to come from duly authorized parties at AHAB. Simply put, there is a commercial deal which AHAB needs to honor. That's my take. But, I suggest you read the case documents themselves to get a complete picture of their positions.

    Putting aside the issue of who is right and who is wrong, let's take a closer look at the FX deal which is the subject of this case.

    The FX transaction is somewhat unusual as it is a "split value" deal. Normally FX deals have both parties making payments on the same day. If Bank A sells Bank B Sterling against the US Dollar, on the settlement date Bank A remits Sterling to Bank B's account. And on the same day Bank B remits the countervalue in US Dollars to Bank A's account. In a split value date deal, one party pays before the other. The party who pays first is taking risk that the second party might not pay. It is taking a credit risk that the second party may not pay its side of the transaction due to financial problems – being put under administration, entering bankruptcy, etc. Even in an FX transaction where settlement occurs on the same day, there is that credit risk. Herstatt Bank is an example. However, the longer the gap between the first party's payment and the second party's the more credit risk the first party is bearing. 

    So what could be the reasons why parties would agree to a split value settlement mechanism?

    Credit Risk Management

    If one of the parties were concerned about the creditworthiness of the other, it could mitigate its risk by requiring the weaker party to pay first. After confirming receipt of funds and only then, the stronger party would remit its funds. This eliminates credit risk on the weaker party. The time between the two payments would be primarily a function of two things. First, the time it takes for the stronger party to confirm receipt of the funds from the weaker party. Second, how soon thereafter, the stronger party is operationally able to make its payment of the countervalue currency.
    Given the currencies involved – the US Dollar and the Saudi Riyal- confirmation of receipt should be relatively easily. There are two widely available methods which provide quick and efficient information (as well as payment functionality) to banks around the world. The shared global "utility" called SWIFT. And proprietary systems offered by various major banks around the world – generally based on access via the Internet using PCs.  AHAB and Mashreq would have access to one or both of these.

    In terms of payments, same day payments for these currencies should be no problem.  The US system has been "wired" for some time.  Saudi Arabia has had an electronic interbank payment system - including same day payments - since 1997 SARIE (Saudi Arabian Riyal Interbank Express).  Payment instructions could be transmitted by SWIFT or a proprietary bank system.

    Two conclusions. 

    First, This can't be a credit motivated transaction since the stronger credit, Mashreq, is paying first.

    Second, the gap between payments, seven days, is longer than what a credit driven transaction would require.  Three days is probably sufficient as this represents the  "worst case" in terms of operational timing.  That is, if  Mashreq were to remit US Dollars on a Wednesday,  because of later NY working hours, AHAB might not be able to confirm receipt until the next business day. Even if staff came in on Thursday to confirm receipt, a SAR payment couldn't be made until Saturday. 

    The only thing that could lengthen the period would be seasonal holidays, e.g., Eid Al Fitr, Eid AlAdha, National Day, etc.  Were there any seasonal holidays during late April / early May 2009 that extended the time period?   No! 

    So I think we can safely exclude credit concerns as a motive for a split value date deal in this case.

    OPERATIONAL REQUIREMENTS – DISPARITY OF WORKING DAYS

    The second reason for these transactions is ostensibly disparity of working days. That is, on the settlement date, New York is open for US Dollar payments but Riyadh (and the rest of Saudi) is closed for the weekend or a holiday. As noted above, Saudi Arabia's "weekend" is Thursday and Friday. 

    In this transaction US Dollars settled on Tuesday 28 April 2009 with the SAR on Tuesday 5 May 2009. There were five Saudi working days from 28 April to 5 May: Tuesday 28 April, Wednesday 29 April, Saturday 2 May, Sunday 3 May and Monday 4 May. There were no "seasonal" holidays during this period. So it is hard to see that there is an operational reason for the seven day gap.

    A key question though (at least in my mind) is whether even with a disparity of working days such a split value deal would be entertained. 

    When I worked for financial firms in the ME managed according to "USA" practices, a split value deal (except one undertaken for credit reasons) was strictly forbidden.  And generally there was  no interest in the extra hassle involved with credit motivated split value deals.   Two reasons. First, such a transaction could be a way of providing a short term money market loan to a party. Such extensions of credit were required to take place under lines specifically designated for loans.  If a transaction does not appear as a loan, a bank might extend another loan well beyond its risk tolerance for that customer. Another reason was integrity of our financial statements and regulatory reporting. A loan should be reported as a loan not an FX transaction.

    Now I recognize that contrary to the beliefs of some what a "USA-style" managed institution does is not necessary infallible behavior. So I checked with an old friend who is long experienced  in Treasury at the DGM/AGM level in both "Arab" and "European" style managed banks. He told me that none of the institutions he worked for ever would entertain such a transaction. The counterparty would simply be told  that the deal had to be done on a common working day for both currencies so that settlement of both sides of the transaction could take place on the same day. But perhaps our horizons are too narrow.  Maybe other institutions apply different rules.  Even if that is the case (and I'm not persuaded that routinely doing split value date deals makes good business sense), the fact is that 28 April was a valid business day in both the Kingdom and the USA. So there was no operational reason both sides could not have settled on the 28 April. 

    My friend also commented that the 3.762 FX rate used in the transaction was "non reflective of the market price". In his banks and mine, it was strictly forbidden to book transactions at non market rates. The concern was that one was assisting someone in manipulating their financials.

    RATIONALE FOR THE SPLIT VALUE TRANSACTIONS

    So if we've eliminated these two justifications, what could be the rationale this transaction?

    If we examine the pattern of transactions, we can perhaps gain an insight into their purpose and rationale. 

    In his affidavit Exhibit 1, page 20 paragraph #21 Attorney Grace states that between February 2005 and 5 May 2009, Mashreq and AHAB engaged in over "100 purported 'split value foreign exchange transactions' substantially identical to the transaction pleaded by Mashreq in the Complaint. Between January 2008 and 1 May 2009 alone, 52 split value foreign exchange transactions were carried out between Mashreq and the Money Exchange, totaling US$4.7 billion." 

    He then goes on to describe that the transactions involved a payment of US Dollars by Mashreq to AlGosaibi's US Dollar account at Bank of America New York with AHAB to pay SAR to Mashreq at National Commercial Bank 3 to 12 days later. The FX rates used in these transactions were not at the prevailing spot FX rate. The SAR is fixed to the US Dollar at 3.75 SAR = $1.00. Interbank trading takes place in a narrow range around that rate. Before the settlement date, AHAB and Mashreq would engage in an offsetting deal to roll the existing deal forward. He also noted that in every deal Mashreq made a profit. AHAB never did.

    Here's an outline of how this scenario might work. First, there is the original deal. Let's use the deal settling 5 May for SAR as the "Original Deal" (though to be clear that deal was actually the rollover of an earlier deal). That deal involved US Dollars against SAR with Mashreq paying US$150 million value 28 April with AHAB to pay SAR564.3 million on 5 May. If we presume AHAB doesn't have any money or wants to use its money for something else, how does it settle the payment due on 5 May to Mashreq?

    Let's treat this as two separate deals. First a deal to cover the SAR payment due on 5 May (a "Closeout Deal"). And then a second deal to re-open the position in US Dollars (a "Rollover Deal").

    In the Closeout Deal AHAB buys SAR from Mashreq against its (AHAB's) payment of US Dollars to Mashreq with settlement of both for value 5 May at the Spot Rate of 3.75. That takes care of the obligation to pay SAR from the Original Deal, except for Mashreq's profit SAR0.9 million which AHAB has to fund from its own resources. (The "profit" arises from the difference in SAR betweens US$150 million at SAR 3.75 = US$1.00 and SAR 3.762).

    But now it needs US$150 million to pay for the SAR value 5 May under the Closeout Deal. Where does it get the US Dollars, if it doesn't already have them? From the Rollover Deal. Let's assume the Rollover Deal has the same terms as the Original Deal except the value dates are different. So, AHAB would buy US Dollars from Mashreq value 5 May against a payment of SAR to Mashreq value 12 May. This deal re-introduces the split value date.

    While the Affidavit it sounds as though the Closeout Deal and the Rollover Deal were combined into a single deal, the Exhibits contain a copy of AHAB's confirmation for the Original Deal (itself a Rollover of an earlier deal). That confirm shows that there must have been two separate deals as outlined above. AHAB and Mashreq could agree to net the two deals' payments. And thus AHAB would owe Mashreq SAR0.9 million.   AHAB's obligation to pay Mashreq US$150 million (Closeout Deal) would be "offset" by Mashreq's obligation to pay US $150 million to AHAB (Rollover Deal).

    Putting this information in tabular form might make the explanation clearer. The table below summarizes the cash flows by value date that would have occurred from a rollover of the transaction maturing 5 May. But note: no such rollover occurred: no Closeout Deal and no Rollover Deal. And since AHAB didn't settle the SAR payment on 5 May, Mashreq is pursuing them in Court.


    TransactionUS$ 28 AprilUS$ 5 MaySAR 5 MaySAR 12 May
    Original Deal

    FX Rate = 3.762
    +$150MM -SAR564.3MM
    Closeout Deal

    FX Rate = 3.75
    $0-$150MM
    +SAR562.5MM
    Rollover Deal

    FX Rate = 3.762
    $0+$150MM
    -SAR564.3MM


     
    TOTAL CASHFLOW

    TO AHAB
    +$150MMUS$0-SAR1.8MM-SAR564.3MM


    As you can see from above the Closeout Deal and the Rollover Deal effectively push forward AHAB's payment of the SAR564.3 million to settle the original inflow of US$150 million. The only payment that does occur is the profit payment to Mashreq on 5 May. On each settlement date in the future (assuming the deal would be continued to be rolled forward), AHAB would pay Mashreq its profit. That explains why Mashreq always was making a "profit" on each deal.

    Based on the above. 
    1. These FX transactions were the equivalent of short term loans. 
    2. The persistent "profit" on the deals was in effect the interest payment on the loan. 
    3. The transaction FX rate of 3.762 compared to the 3.75 fixed parity results in an implied borrowing rate of 8.32% per annum. That rate might seem high. The day before the 28 April value date one month Libor was trading at roughly 43 basis points. That means the margin over Libor was roughly 7.9%. But remember that at that time spreads were still elevated due to subprime crisis, the failure of Lehman, etc. So there is some rationale to the credit spread here. 
    4. Also as is hopefully clear, the Rollover Deals did not result in AHAB getting more money from Mashreq. Rather the Rollovers merely extended the maturity of the loan. So despite the US$4.7 billion volume of transactions mentioned, AHAB only received  (borrowed) US$150 million from Mashreq. 
    5. Mashreq's dealers must have known that they were extending loans. Whether its management did is not determinable from the documents I've seen. 
    6. In terms of justification for the transaction, it's hard to imagine that anyone with a knowledge of AHAB's business could consider these transactions were commercially necessary to fund the needs of the Money Exchange business. The volumes are too large relative to the Exchange's business.  Since the amounts were rolled forward, there was only one net cash inflow to AHAB. 
    7. Nor would these transactions likely to be financially motivated "hedges", particularly, since the US$/SAR FX rate is fixed (and has been so for many many years) and since the Saudi Government has ample financial resources to maintain the "peg".

    Commercial Bank of Kuwait 2009 Profits KD0.154 Million



    AlQabas reports that the Central Bank of Kuwait has approved Commercial Bank's 2009 financials.  Net profit is reported as being KD154,000 after heavy (but unquantified) additions to provisions.  The Bank reported net profit of KD100.7 million for 2008. 

    However, this year earnings have been "subdued" as the Bank has built provisions starting in the Second Quarter.  At 30 September 2009, it reported a net loss of KD1.6 million.   So this is not big news if you've been paying attention.

    Dubai World - Debt Rescheduling Proposal - Just A Maturity Extension?


    According to Gulf News, recent discussions suggest that the rescheduling may just an extension of maturities with no haircuts or other features which would offend the sensibilities of DW's lenders or investors.

    Time will tell.  Until then we're all still free to speculate.

    Thursday, 11 March 2010

    More on Retail Banking Distress - Saudi Youth and Credit Cards

    A rather short article from AlQabas relaying a recent survey among Saudi youth.
    1. 52% are suffering from debt caused by the improper use of credit cards.
    2. Two thirds expressed concerns about the rising cost of living, the housing shortage, decline in salaries, and the increase in unemployment.
    Credit cards are a particularly insidious form of debt.  The interest charges are relatively high. As a result it's quite easy to get into a debt trap - where the debt keeps increasing even if one makes the minimum monthly payment.

    Banks are not always responsible in the underwriting stage - cards are often given to those who shouldn't have them.  Where there is no central credit bureau, the bank is essentially lending "blind" as it doesn't know the customer's credit history (payments) nor does it know how much credit outstanding the customer has.  

    And credit monitoring and management is absolutely woeful.  I know a customer of one regional financial institution - the winner of more than one award for excellence in banking who restructured a client's credit card debt to a five year personal loan. One month after the negotiations concluded the chap got a letter from the credit card division of that same bank thanking him for "paying off" his balance and offering him a new credit card with a higher limit!  This after they had spent the previous six months writing him letters threatening legal action and all sort of woeful consequences if he didn't pay his bill.   Somehow when his balance was transferred from the credit card division to the personal loan division it registered as a "payoff".