Review of QCB Data on Net Foreign Assets Position of Qatar Banking Sector - Part 1

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Earlier Post Here

Introduction

Since the GCC 3+1 (Egypt) announced their “blockade” against Qatar, there has been a lot written about the negative economic impact on Qatar, some of it true and some of it seizing on negative news to invent imagined foreign policy successes.  For the latter read Gulf News. 

One point that has been emphasized is that Qatari banks have a negative net foreign asset (NFA) position.  On an aggregate basis Qatar’s banks are borrowing offshore to fund onshore assets.  This is a real vulnerability.

But …

Aggregate statistics can identify symptoms of diseases but further diagnosis is required to determine if the patient actually has a disease and how severe the disease is.  At times aggregate statistics can obscure diseases.  For example, if we assume that Qatar banks had a perfectly balanced position with FA = FL, aggregate statistics would suggest everything is fine.  But if the FA were in shares of GFH and Dana Gas to choose two sterling investments, there would likely be a real problem.  Or one bank had a positive NFA and the other a negative NFA, the potential demand for repayment would be the negative NFA of the second bank, not the net of their two positions as in the QCB NFA data.

What’s important then is taking a detailed look after parking any partisanship in the dispute.

This post will do just that. 

As noted in my introductory post, I’ll be looking at this topic using two main data sources:  QCB statistics and bank consolidated financial reports.  This post will focus on QCB reported NFA. 

QATAR CENTRAL BANK DATA

We’ll begin by looking at data published by the QCB in its “Monthly Monetary Bulletin” (MMB) and ”Quarterly Statistical Bulletin” (QSB).

To set the stage a discussion of aggregate statistics.   

Qatar Commercial Banks NFA
Billions of QAR
EOP	TFA	TFL	NFA
Dec-16	273	447	-174
May-17	268	471	-203
Jun-17	260	415	-155
Jul-17	249	388	-140
Aug-17	235	371	-136
Sep-17	234	368	-133
Net Chg	-39	-79	40

Qatar Commercial Banks NFA
Billions of USD
EOP	TFA	TFL	NFA
Dec-16	$75.1	$122.7	-$47.7
May-17	$73.6	$129.4	-$55.9
Jun-17	$71.5	$114.1	-$42.6
Jul-17	$68.3	$106.7	-$38.4
Aug-17	$64.5	$102.0	-$37.5
Sep-17	$64.3	$101.0	-$36.6
Net Chg	-$10.7	-$21.8	-$11.0

Technical Notes:

1. QAR amounts rounded to nearest billion.  USD equivalents rounded to nearest hundred million.
2. Conversion to USD equivalent at QAR 3.64 = USD 1.00.
3. Note that “Qatar Commercial Banks” includes all banks licensed to operate in the emirate including foreign banks. 
4. FA = Foreign Assets. FL = Foreign Liabilities. NFA = FA – FL.  T= Total, i.e., TFL = Total Foreign Liabilities.
5. Sources: Tables 3, 21, and 22 in the Monthly Monetary Bulletin and Tables 4, 22, and 23 in the Quarterly Statistical Bulletin.  The MMB is not published at Quarter end.

Comments:

1. The aggregate (note that word) NFA assets position of the Qatari banking sector seems rather modest in terms of the resources that the GOQ can bring to bear.
2. From FYE 2016 through September 2017 Qatar’s banks have reduced their negative NFA position by some USD 11 billion or roughly 22%.  If measured from May 2017, the reduction is about USD 19 billion or 33%. 
3. During this period, USD 11 billion equivalent in FA have been liquidated to meet repayments of FL and FL have been reduced the equivalent of USD 22 billion.  If measured from May, FA have been reduced some USD 9 billion and FL about USD 28 billion.

At first glance, the banks and GOQ seem to be handling matters well.  The pace of creditor flight in August and September appears to have slowed. But these two data points do not establish an irreversible trend.

Hopefully, there is more than one reader out there (that’s meant in more than one sense) who is thinking and, thus, thinking of saying: “Wait a minute, AA, the Qatar banks don’t owe the Net FA position, they owe the total of foreign liabilities, some USD 101 billion.  That’s a much bigger amount and would strain the GOQ’s resources a lot more.  That’s the measure to use.” 

Keep this straw man’s comment in mind as it will be a recurring theme in what follows.

Let’s turn to that topic and look at Total Foreign Liabilities (TFL) as a percentage of Total Liabilities and Equity (TLE).

Qatar Commercial Banks
TFL as Percent of TLE
EOP	TFL	TL	%
Dec-16	447	1,272	35%
May-17	471	1,323	36%
Jun-17	415	1,316	32%
Jul-17	388	1,313	30%
Aug-17	371	1,328	28%
Sep-17	368	1,347	27%

In light of the negative NFA position, these ratios are concerning.  More importantly they understate the relative importance of TFL as a percent of market funds.   To correct this let’s remove equity from the denominator.

Qatar Commercial Banks
TFL as Percent of TL  (No Equity)
EOP	TFL	TL	%
Dec-16	447	1,093	41%
May-17	471	1,131	42%
Jun-17	415	1,124	37%
Jul-17	388	1,119	35%
Aug-17	371	1,134	33%
Sep-17	368	1,153	32%

1. Note:  In adjusting TLE for equity I deducted QAR 25 billion in perpetual subordinated debt which is Tier 1 Capital, but is not accounted as capital in the QCB statistics.
2. TL also includes “Other Liabilities” which average about QAR 4 billion.  However excluding these does not materially change the percentages. So I have not.
3. The ratios are higher.  So even more cause for concern. NPA fairly dramatic picture of dependency on foreign funding. 

While this sharpens the analysis, it doesn’t provide a complete answer.

Diagnostic Questions

To get that answer ideally we need to answer at least the following questions.

Foreign Assets 

1. What are the foreign assets composed of? For example, if the banks foreign assets are substantially in liquid high credit quality instruments, then the absolute net additional funds they require to settle all foreign liabilities are much smaller, approaching the NFA position. 
2. Which banks in Qatar own the assets?  Because the QCB statistics are for the entire Qatari banking sector, they include foreign banks operating in Qatar.  How big is their share of the FA?  List of licensed banks in Qatar.

Foreign Liabilities

1. What are the foreign liabilities composed of?  How much is bank-provided funding (typically expected to be more volatile), customer deposits, and debt instruments?
2. Which banks, local or foreign, are responsible for paying these liabilities?  How does this compare to their shares of FA?  For example, if foreign banks have borrowed foreign currency to fund their QAR denominated local operations and this is a significant amount of total FL, then the problem for Qatar is less because these banks are unlikely to be affected by creditor flight.  And if it does occur, then their parents are likely to step up.  But, if this is the case, then which foreign banks hold the large FL and do they have access to funding?   There’s a difference between HSBC, Stan Chart, and BNP on the one hand and Bank Saderat on the other, though we might reasonably expect Bank Saderat to be a “samak saghir” in Qatar.
3. To whom is the money owed?   For example, if much of the TFL funding is intercompany, it is likely to be more “sticky”, unless the overseas units are under pressure themselves  On the other hand, if a significant portion of the TL are owed to GCC3+1 entities, then the problem is greater.

Additional Foreign Assets and Liabilities

1. Are there foreign assets and liabilities of the Qatari banks that are not recorded in the QCB data? These are most likely those of subsidiaries.  If contagion spreads to foreign subsidiaries, then the Qatari parents may have additional foreign currency burdens, unless they “walk away” from these subsidiaries.  On the other hand, a foreign subsidiary may be induced to make a timely deposit to help out a parent.  

Individual Bank Positions

1. As noted earlier, what are the individual positions of local Qatari banks?  Qatar Bank A which has a positive NFA position is highly unlikely going to bail out Qatar Bank B which has a negative one.  Therefore, we need to disaggregate the local banks’ TFA and TFL to individual banks.

We can answer some but not all of these questions from the QCB data. And will start doing that in the next post.

Qatar Banking Sector - How to Measure the Net Foreign Assets Position

AA Absolutely Loves Quotes Like This Though It's Hard to Match "Live Your Life" 

This is the first of four planned posts on Qatari banks’ vulnerability to cross-border foreign currency exposure in light of the measures taken by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt (the GCC 3 +1). 

Before getting into a detailed discussion of the numbers, it’s important to ensure that we’re measuring cross-border foreign currency exposure vulnerability properly. 

Currently analysts and the press are focused on Qatari banks’ Net Foreign Assets (NFA) position as reported by the Qatar Central Bank (QCB).  It’s a “convenient” measure:  a single number available monthly.   But sadly reality is rarely, if ever, that neat. 

To be very clear, I don’t think there is a fault in the QCB’s NFA statistics, but rather that they give only a partial picture of Qatari banks’ positions and vulnerability.

Why?

The statistics are an aggregate of the separate foreign currency positions of all the banks operating in Qatar with non-resident counterparties.

What does that mean? 

1. Net Positions Obscure Gross Positions: Assume a country whose banking sector is composed of only two banks, Bank A and Bank B.  Assume Bank A has borrowed local currency to fund foreign assets of some USD 55 billion and Bank B has borrowed foreign currency to fund local currency assets of USD 55 billion.  According to QCB’s valid methodology, NFA = 0, an apparently “happy” cross-border position.  But if foreign creditors cease lending to the country, Bank B needs to pay USD 55 billion to them. If it can’t, the central bank needs to step up unless one assumes the highly unlikely event that Bank A voluntarily liquidates its foreign assets and makes the resulting foreign currency available to Bank B.   The situation is even more complicated when as usual there are multiple banks in a country.  The net of all their individual positions obscures the position of each bank.  And it is the position of each bank that is critical to the ultimate demand for foreign currency on a country.
2. Net Positions Obscure Exposure to Specific Creditors:  When assessing creditor flight, it’s important to know where the creditors are.  In the case of Qatar, creditors in the GCC 3 +1 are most likely to take “flight”.  Other creditors less so because the crisis is at present driven by political not economic/credit issues. If exposure to the GCC 3 +1 countries is large, then the potential funding gap from their withdrawal is large.  If not, the problem may be minor. 
3. The standard NFA statistics implicitly assume that assets and liabilities are equally liquid. They “ignore” the fact that a bank’s basic business is maturity transformation – typically borrowing short and lending/investing long. On a contractual basis a good portion of assets (likely a majority) will almost certainly have maturities far in excess of liabilities.  If assets cannot be liquidated quickly because of contractual maturities, the central bank (here QCB) may have to provide additional foreign currency funding to “bridge” the maturity gap. That will be an immediate call upon the central bank’s foreign assets.  If the banks’ assets cannot be realized at par, the parent or central bank may have to provide additional funds to make up the shortfall from asset realization.  If, for example, Qatari banks hold their foreign assets in US Treasury Bills, realization at par is almost certain.  If they hold Dana Gas or GFH shares, less so, much less so.

What’s needed then is additional information on Qatari banks’ foreign currency exposure that supplements the QCB reported NFA position by factoring in the cross border foreign assets and liabilities of local Qatar banks that are not included in the NFA position, subtracting the position of overseas banks operating in Qatar (if their position is meaningful), disaggregating “net” positions into gross Foreign Assets (FA) and Foreign Liabilities (FL) by region (ideally country), and by individual Qatari bank, as well as understanding the liquidity of gross FA of individual banks.  That requires looking at the foreign asset classes the banks hold. 

We can derive some of this information from other data published by the QCB.

But we are still left with unanswered questions.

To answer those questions, we can turn to the fiscal year end consolidated financial reports of Qatari banks, though this method is admittedly imperfect. 

In the third post I’ll discuss the theoretical limitations as well as  practical constraints of using this method.  And why I chose this method as an analytical tool despite those drawbacks.  For example, not all Qatari banks provide a geographical allocation of assets and liabilities. Accounting standards do not require the provision of this data for “parent only” statements that would eliminate a key issue with using consolidated statements. That is Qatari parents have less direct access to the foreign assets of their overseas subsidiaries than to those of their foreign branches.  Also the parents are not legally liable for their subsidiaries' foreign liabilities absent having provided a guarantee. 

One final point. 

This exercise will result in estimates of Qatari banks’ vulnerability—hopefully more comprehensive than the NFA reported by QCB.  But note that both are estimates not “hard” numbers. Vulnerability is composed of two elements: structural position and market sentiment.  We can get a reasonable “fix” on the aggregate structural position, but not an exact number due to the absence of sufficiently detailed information. Pricing and timing of realization of assets remain uncertain and dependent on many factors.  Creditor sentiment—responsible for the “flight” in capital flight--is harder to specify than the structural position.  We  see creditor or market sentiment most clearly post-facto.    All these factors are uncertain and inter-react making this a complex system.  As such, it’s not capable of being modelled accurately.  Therefore, the final post will look at some scenarios to set a range of possibilities and hopefully spark some thinking by others as to how to refine the analysis.

The following three posts will detail the results of an analysis of:

1. QCB data
2. Data from individual Qatari banks’  audited annual consolidated financial statements
3. Various FX exposure scenarios 

These posts will be typical-AA excessively-detailed journeys through the data.  To whet your appetite for the long journey that follows, three teasers.  Note that the consolidated financial statement data cited below is as of 31 December, the only time that banks are required to publish detailed risk management notes.

The Qatar banking sector’s estimated foreign asset and liability exposure to other GCC states (OGCC) is minor in the context of its total foreign asset (TFA) and total foreign liability (TFL) position as of 31 December 2016.

1. Based on a sample of  7 Qatari banks consolidated financial statements, the base worst case exposure to other GCC states (OGCC)—assuming no realization of any FA held in OGCC—is estimated at some QAR 89 billion (the aggregate of all banks TFL  to OGCC) or some USD 24.5 billion. 
2. If we assume that Qatari banks will be able to realize their FA at par value, and look only at those banks with a negative NFA, the exposure is QAR 31 billion equivalent to USD 8.5 billion. 
3. If we take the aggregate position of all Qatari banks, the aggregate NFA is some QAR 18 billion or USD 4.9 billion.  For the reasons outlined above AA thinks this scenario is unlikely.
4. While we are missing detailed data for four banks, it’s unlikely that they will dramatically change these amounts.  AlKhaliji Qatar has disclosed overseas subsidiaries with gross assets of QAR 8.9 billion (USD 2.4 billion), primarily in the UAE.  QIIB and IBQ do not appear to have foreign branches or operating subsidiaries overseas.  Qatar Development Bank, the missing fourth bank, doesn’t release financials but from the QCB data we can see that it is funded primarily with equity and has a positive NFA of some USD 84 million equivalent. 
5. If we adjust the base worst case scenario for AlKhaliji's overseas subsidiaries' total assets of QAR 8 billion, the result is QAR 97 billion or USD 26.6 billion.   

An estimate of the Qatari banking sector’s aggregate NFA using individual bank consolidated financial reports results in a much lower aggregate NFA than QCB figures as of 31 December 2016. 

1. As per consolidated financials, the aggregate NFA is some USD 25 billion equivalent versus USD 48 billion equivalent from QCB data as of 31 December 2016. 
2. While the consolidated financial “result” is based on a sample and thus does not include all Qatari banks, I think it’s unlikely that the remaining banks could generate an additional negative NFA equaling USD 24 billion equivalent.  Why?  Because the total liabilities (foreign and domestic) of these banks ex-QDB equal QAR 112 billion (some USD 31 billion). It’s highly unlikely that they have foreign liabilities equal to 74% of total liabilities. As well there are likely to have some FA to offset their FL.  

Qatari banks with the aid of the Government of Qatar (GOQ) should be easily able to meet the challenge posed by the GCC 3 +1’s actions. 

1. However, if the GCC 3 +1 can create a situation in which other foreign creditors withdraw funding support, the burden on the banks and the GOQ would be substantially higher.
2. Using QCB data the worst case would be aggregate TFL of some USD 101 billion equivalent as of September 2017.  Consolidated financial report data after 31 December 2006 isn’t available for comparison.  But if we use the “spread” at 31 December 2016 between QCB’s computation of NFA and that derived from bank financial reports, the estimated consolidated finance report-derived NFA would be some USD 9 billion larger, i.e. USD 110 billion.          

Unintentional Investment Advice from the Chairwoman of the Federal Reserve

A Case of Goldilocks' Fever?

Earlier this week the Chairwoman of the US Federal Reserve System spoke at The British Academy President's lecture.

She was asked about the possibility of a new financial crisis, according to Reuters.

"Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis?" Yellen said at a question-and-answer event in London.

"You know probably that would be going too far but I do think we're much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don't believe it will be," she said.

It's either a case of inadvertent investment advice or perhaps an indirect disclosure of health problems.

More likely the former. 

So it's an appropriate time to adjust your investment criteria to the side of more caution, if you haven't already given the new Administration in Washington..

Global FX Code of Ethics: If You Have to State the Obvious, You Obviously Have a Real Problem

Annual Manifestation of the Free Market God at the AEA

Regular readers of this blog will have noticed that AA has little faith in the myth of the “self-regulating free market”.  Just last week  AA’s scant faith was confirmed yet again.

On 25 May the central bank-led Foreign Exchange Working Group (FXWG) in partnership with the private sector Market Participants Group (MPG) released a global code of conduct for the wholesale foreign exchange (FX) market.

The first principle of six in the Code is Ethics.  

This section of the Code calls on market participants to inter alia “strive for the highest ethical standards”, “the highest professional standards”, as well as “identify and address conflicts of interest”.

But let's let the Code "speak" for itself with AA using boldface to highlight key ideas

“Market Participants should:

• Act honestly in dealings with Clients and other Market Participants;
• Act fairly, dealing with Clients and other Market Participants in a consistent and appropriately transparent manner; and
• Act with integrity, particularly in avoiding and confronting questionable practices and behaviours.”

What this means in fewer words is that market participants should be honest and capable.

Two observations:

First, with reference to the “highest ethical standards” AA is at a loss to understand how being honest is an exemplar of “highest ethical standards”.  Are there ethical standards that allow one to be dishonest or act unfairly?  AA holds that being honest and acting fairly is like being pregnant.  One either is or is not.

Second, the six principles are not listed in alphabetical order.  Does the fact that ethics is placed first reflect an assessment by the FXWG and MPG (though perhaps the latter’s assessment is not as strong as the former’s) that there is a particular problem with ethics or more precisely a lack of ethics? If one has to make a point about what is self-evident, that seems to be an indication implication that practice is lacking.    

Does the need for promulgation of ethical standards refute the dogma of the self-regulating market?  If the market regulates itself, then such problems would be transitory and quickly remedied   

AA's parents and then AA himself spent a not inconsiderable sum on education, a good portion of which funded AA’s direct and indirect studies of economic dogma. 

It is an article of the Free Market faith that market forces driven by intense free market competition, act to indirectly compel ethical behavior among market participants.  Those who are unethical and act unfairly are displaced because customers flock to virtuous participants who act fairly and with high ethical standards.  This occurs even though the latter's salutary behaviour is motivated solely by the pursuit of profit not of virtue.  

That's the theory but this press release seems to confirm not the practice.

The Trouble with Macroeconomics

Good Old Pierre-Joseph Didn't Give Up

If you unfortunately missed this article and the surrounding controversy, AA has your back. 

Funny thing about the controversy Dr. Romer is not the first economist to criticize economics, though perhaps his naming and shaming of specific practitioners is what has the economists’ guild in an uproar. 

Here’s a link to his thought-provoking article “The Trouble with Macroeconomics”   and his bio . He was appointed this year to be the World Bank’s Chief Economist. 

His paper deals with the “identification problem” which is tech speak for determining that an equation or model is specified properly.  That is, that the major causal factors have been identified and their relative causative impacts properly determined.   If these factors have been properly “identified”, then the economist understands the underlying processes and can use model to predict the results of certain (policy) actions. 

Thus, the model is not only descriptive but also normative.   

Romer levies a savage critique against macroeconomics spiced with some positively delightful “digs”:

1. comparison of certain macroeconomic “principles” to the long-abandoned theory of phlogiston
2. a call out of “FWUTVs” (facts with unknown truth values) assumptions that are treated as facts without any proof-- particularly relevant in this post-truth age
3. analogies to dogmatic beliefs or religions where theory “trumps” (I’m allowed to use that word) the truth

Well worth a read. 

Some quotes to whet your appetite.  Headings and boldface are AA’s. 

One quibble with Dr. Romer.  There’s always at least one quibble when AA is involved! 

Economics is not a science as that term is properly understood.  Complex systems cannot be reduced to descriptive much less predictive models because of the interplay of causes and the interplay of effects.  That means economics is more a “social science”. 

General

“For more than three decades, macroeconomics has gone backwards. The treatment of identification now is no more credible than in the early 1970s but escapes challenge because it is so much more opaque. Macroeconomic theorists dismiss mere facts by feigning an obtuse ignorance about such simple assertions as "tight monetary policy can cause a recession." Their models attribute fluctuations in aggregate variables to imaginary causal forces that are not influenced by the action that any person takes. A parallel with string theory from physics hints at a general failure mode of science that is triggered when respect for highly regarded leaders evolves into a deference to authority that displaces objective fact from its position as the ultimate determinant of scientific truth.”

Assume Your Way to Truth

“Relying on a micro-foundation lets an author can say, ‘Assume A, assume B, ... blah blah blah .... And so we have proven that P is true.’ Then the model is identified”

Comparison to the Theory of Phlogiston

“Once macroeconomists concluded that it was reasonable to invoke an imaginary forcing variables, they added more. The resulting menagerie, together with my 5 suggested names now includes:

1. A general type of phlogiston that increases the quantity of consumption goods produced by given inputs  An "investment-specific" type of phlogiston that increases the quantity of capital goods produced by given inputs 
2. A troll who makes random changes to the wages paid to all workers 
3. A gremlin who makes random changes to the price of output 
4. Aether, which increases the risk preference of investors 
5. Caloric, which makes people want less leisure

With the possible exception of phlogiston, the modelers assumed that there is no way to directly measure these forces. Phlogiston can in measured by growth accounting, at least in principle. In practice, the calculated residual is very sensitive to mismeasurement of the utilization rate of inputs, so even in this case, direct measurements are frequently ignored.”

Seven Characteristics of String Theorists (Physics) and Comparison to Macroeconomists

1. “Tremendous self-confidence
2. An unusually monolithic community
3. A sense of identification with the group akin to identification with a religious faith or political platform 
4. A strong sense of the boundary between the group and other experts 
5. A disregard for and disinterest in ideas, opinions, and work of experts who are not part of the group 
6. A tendency to interpret evidence optimistically, to believe exaggerated or incomplete statements of results, and to disregard the possibility that the theory  might be wrong 
7. A lack of appreciation for the extent to which a research program ought to involve risk

The conjecture suggested by the parallel is that developments in both string theory and post-real macroeconomics illustrate a general failure mode of a scientific field that relies on mathematical theory. The conditions for failure are present when a few talented researchers come to be respected for genuine contributions on the cutting edge of mathematical modeling. Admiration evolves into deference to these leaders. Deference leads to effort along the specific lines that the leaders recommend. Because guidance from authority can align the efforts of many researchers, conformity to the facts is no longer needed as a coordinating device. As a result, if facts disconfirm the officially sanctioned theoretical vision, they are subordinated. Eventually, evidence stops being relevant. Progress in the field is judged by the purity of its mathematical theories, as determined by the authorities.”