GFH's USD 300 Million Sukuk - Success Has a Price

And Sometimes It's High as Well

On 29 December 2019 GFH’s shareholders approved GFH issuing up to a USD 500 million sukuk through an SPV in one or more tranches.

On 22 January 2020—less than one month later—GFH announced that it had “successfully priced” a USD 300 million 5 year sukuk. 

Strangely, GFH didn’t disclose what the successful price was. 

An inadvertent lapse in " شفافية "? Modesty or something to hide?

AA will tell you later as I want to let GFH have the first change to explain its success.

GFH’s press release outlined several key takeaways. Italics are AA’s. 

This is a landmark transaction for GFH, placing it in the international debt capital market. 

The successful issuance was supported by a ‘B’ rating from each of S&P and Fitch with strong demand from international investors reflecting market confidence in GFH and its subsidiaries (the Group) and recognition of its healthy financial position, sound strategy and business model.

The order-book for the Certificates was oversubscribed 2.5 times exceeding US$750 million. The Certificates saw strong demand from international investors who were allocated 47% of the issuance with the additional 53% taken up by regional investors.

In terms of the types of investors, 61% were fund managers and 39% were financial institutions.

The proceeds of the Certificates will be used to enhance the financial position of the Group and to fund its next phase of growth.

GFH’s CEO, Hisahm AL-Rayes summed it all up by saying

This is another important milestone for GFH and further recognition from the market of the success of GFH’s transformation into a sound and well diversified financial group. The strong uptake from both regional and international investors attests to the strength of our strategy, our financial health and performance and, importantly, to our future prospects as we push forward in further building our business and position as a leading regional and international investor. The proceeds of the Certificates will enable us to continue to build and deliver even greater value to our investors, shareholders and the economies in which we invest.

Italics in above quote are AA’s and set the stage for some observations below.

First, the successful price was a fixed rate of 7.5% per annum.

You can look over a list of indicative sukuk quotes from Emirates Islamic Bank to get an idea just how successful the pricing was.

Perhaps, GFH is thinking about the success of the investors?  Perhaps relieved that it didn't have to pay 10%?

Of course, the pricing looks “generous” before consideration of credit risk. Then maybe not so rich.

It’s unclear to AA how a low non-investment grade rating of B supported issuance, though it does justify the price. Rather AA suspects that this very generous successful price certainly drove interest and the oversubscription.

One might speculate if at this pricing, oversubscription should have even been higher.

In issuing its ratings announcement, Fitch made the following points.

1. Its rating of B/RR4 was based on GFH’s credit rating as Fitch sees GFH’s obligation under the transaction as the source of repayment.
2. It has not assigned any collateral value to the Trust Assets.
3. It does not express an opinion on compliance with Shari’a principles.

For those who don’t know, a Fitch Recovery Rating of “RR4” represent a historical average recovery 31% to 50% of principal and related interest on securities in the “B” category. Page 24 in Fitch’s Ratings Definitions publication. Be sure you read Fitch’s complete explanation of Recovery Ratings, including limitations.

To AA that sounds like GFH has less than a strong “financial health”.

As to being well diversified, perhaps GFH’s CEO is thinking about the future.

The Offering Circular contains the following contrary comments.

The Group has significant exposure to the real estate sector (page 13)

As at 31 December 2018 and on an original basis, 54.1 per cent. of the Group’s total assets were concentrated on the real estate sector, principally in the form of the development properties (which constituted 26.4 per cent. of the Group’s total assets as at 31 December 2018), its investment properties (which constituted 10.5 per cent. of the Group’s total assets as at 31 December 2018) and its financing assets and assets acquired for leasing (which constituted 8.7 per cent. of the Group’s total assets as at 31 December 2018).

Real estate concentration at KHCB. (page 13)

In addition, 50.5 per cent. of the Group’s commercial banking business’ assets exposed to credit risk as at 31 December 2018 were concentrated on the real estate and construction sectors and 93.9 per cent. by estimated fair value of the collateral accepted by the Group against financing assets and assets acquired for leasing including lease rentals receivable was in the form of real estate as at 31 December 2018.

Real estate valuation is inherently subjective and uncertain, and real estate investments are illiquid (page 9)

Real estate assets are inherently difficult to value. As a result, valuations are subject to substantial uncertainty and subjective judgments and are made on the basis of assumptions which may not be correct.

Temporary forbearance from CBB regulations (page 16)

1. The Group currently benefits from a CBB exemption that permits it to exclude the assets acquired through litigation settlements and by way of a share swap from the CBB’s large exposure and connected counterparty limits. This exemption is re-assessed by the CBB on an annual basis. If the CBB decides to no longer grant the exemption, this will negatively impact the Group’s capital adequacy ratio which may lead to non-compliance with regulatory requirements and result in the Group becoming subject to potential enforcement measures and/or significant penalties. 
2. The Group also has an exemption from the CBB related to its exposures to certain large real estate projects which are higher than 15 per cent. of its regulatory capital. This exemption is also re-assessed by the CBB on an annual basis. If the CBB decides to no longer grant the exemption, this could require the Group to reduce its exposure which could result in significant losses.

From the above AA does not see a picture of strong financial health or the diversification that others see.

One further comment: Know Your Obligor

Under certain conditions GFH is obliged to make full repayment of the sukuk. Fitch considers GFH to be the source of repayment.

It’s critical to understand exactly “who” is on the hook here.

In an indirect way, the Offering Circular does this, but AA fears not clear enough so investors understand.

On page 13 the OC states:

The claims of Certificateholders against GFH will be structurally subordinated to the claims of the creditors of GFH’s investees.

What that means then is prospective investors in the sukuk should have looked at the financials of the parent company of the GFH Financial Group BSC, not the consolidated financials.

Why?

The consolidated financials reflect an accounting construct not a legal entity.

One signs contracts, including debt contracts, with legal entities.

One enforces one’s contractual rights against legal entities not accounting constructs.

Unless GFH’s subsidiaries and investees separately legally committed themselves under this transaction, they are not obliged to repay the sukuk.

Therefore, one needs to look at the parent company’s financials.

These will look quite different than the consolidated group financials.

For example, all of KHCB’s assets and liabilities will not appear in the parent only financials. They will be replaced by a single number representing GFH’s investment in KHCB stock.

All KHCB’s income and expenses will be not appear in the parent only financials. In their place will be dividends received and perhaps a change in value of the stock investment, depending on the method used to account for KHCB.

In this respect it’s important to understand that as a shareholder in KHCB or any other investee, GFH is subordinate to the creditors of the investee.

Also that any cashflow from KHCB or another investee—which AA would venture to claim is critical to repaying the sukuk—will come via dividends or perhaps loans. There are various controls on the amount of dividends an investee may pay and generally limits on intragroup transactions. Thus, funds may not be available.

Here’s an example using Bank of America’s FY 2018 AR. 

Compare the Income Statement and Balance Sheet for the parent company in Note 24 with the Consolidated Income Statement and Balance Sheet. 

Quite a difference. You’ll see each of the points made above reflected in the parent only numbers.

The OC doesn’t contain parent only financials. Yet the parent is the Obligor.

Why? 

How could this critical piece of information be lacking?

Rather than rely on the issuer/obligor, legal advisors, or investment banks to ensure that this information is provided, regulators should require that parent only summary financial information be included.