tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5124857623766724513.post4219640835851868435..comments2024-01-13T08:27:40.266+00:00Comments on Suq Al Mal: The Investment Dar - Central Bank to Impose Conditions to Enter FSLAbu 'Arqalahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01296250358695456059noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5124857623766724513.post-85945596749664867552010-07-30T17:21:54.786+01:002010-07-30T17:21:54.786+01:00"Initially TID had hired Gulf Bank - presumab..."Initially TID had hired Gulf Bank - presumably for something other than its imagined expertise in the field of debt rescheduling ..."<br /><br />LOL, love it.Chapter 11noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5124857623766724513.post-49730433043583888782010-07-27T13:11:49.523+01:002010-07-27T13:11:49.523+01:00here, here to AA's analysis of the situation.....here, here to AA's analysis of the situation... there's no logical reason for all the dilly-dallying ...The Rageful Cynicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5124857623766724513.post-64895144104655881272010-07-27T08:28:59.623+01:002010-07-27T08:28:59.623+01:00Anonymous
A rather unfunny joke for clients.Anonymous<br /><br />A rather unfunny joke for clients.Abu 'Arqalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01296250358695456059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5124857623766724513.post-26852338645808490562010-07-27T07:24:35.800+01:002010-07-27T07:24:35.800+01:00These folks need to just get some liquidity throug...These folks need to just get some liquidity through the system and unwind their money market fund - I cant believe redemptions are still suspended, what a joke.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5124857623766724513.post-49089409060121154192010-07-26T13:39:12.150+01:002010-07-26T13:39:12.150+01:00Part 2
delaying a decision by the CBK is fear of m...Part 2<br />delaying a decision by the CBK is fear of making a decision and being wrong. And then being criticized. <br /><br />That's a common human trait. My experience suggests though that in this part of the world this failing is more acute. <br /><br />If the CBK is looking for certainty on TID, it is fooling itself. <br /><br />The most it can get is a reasonable probability. And even then one that could be upset by a multitude of factors. For one, there is a non trivial possibility that military action in Iran will occur. Another is that there will be a downturn in the world economy caused by (take your pick) (a) reckless stimulus spending or (b) premature austerity. ووو as they say.<br /><br />An analysis of the restructurings would be fantastic. <br /><br />The first problem is getting someone with the right skills and access to enough information. The second is to interpret it - and avoid the natural tendency to use the time honored analytical tool of 20:20 hindsight. To understand the constraints on the set of alternatives actually available at the time for constructing the terms of the restructuring. etc.Abu 'Arqalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01296250358695456059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5124857623766724513.post-78188620945148497872010-07-26T13:10:22.904+01:002010-07-26T13:10:22.904+01:00Laocowboy2
Yours isn't an unreasonable commen...Laocowboy2<br /><br />Yours isn't an unreasonable comment. And certainly there is no need to rush to make a decision. <br /><br />I think the decision rests ultimately on two points. (1) An estimation of the prospect (amount and timing) of TID's repayment. (2) The fall out on Kuwait of a bankruptcy. There may be a lesser fallout if TID fails in the future. And at that point the quantum of unpaid debt may be lower.<br /><br />On the first, the CBK has had its "man" in TID since the beginning of the restructuring (2008). It has the benefit of the work of the lenders' expensive expert. It has the E&Y Report.<br /><br />By now it should have formed an estimate of the reasonable probability of TID repaying its mountain of debt. If it has not, then perhaps it's time for someone to gently wake up the CBK.<br /><br />As to policy implications of a bankrutpcy, the CBK has since 2008 to ponder these. These are the factors that might cause the CBK to take a punt and put TID under the FSL even if it had some doubts.<br /><br />As to conditions, the CBK has had the proposed plan for quite some time. It should be well familiar with it. And its internal experts should have had a look much earlier since as was clear recourse to the FSL was a real possibility. If the plan is defective, it should have an idea where it is defective.Abu 'Arqalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01296250358695456059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5124857623766724513.post-64468679099784687362010-07-26T07:59:49.961+01:002010-07-26T07:59:49.961+01:00While it might be tempting to criticize the CBK fo...While it might be tempting to criticize the CBK for how long the FSL decision is taking, for once I believe it is more important that they get it right rather than get it fast. To follow TID in the process there is no shortage of other stretcher cases to be dealt with (A'Ayan etc) and some (as they say here in India) that will arrive at the retructuring hospital and would be anywhere else declared "brought dead".<br /><br />At some point in the future it would be interesting to see an analysis of thise restructurings that have worked (e.g. KFIC hopefully) and those that haven't - and to draw conclusions.Laocowboy2noreply@blogger.com