Tuesday, January 3, 2017

Analyzing KHCB's Financials -- Credit Metrics Part 1

Choose Your P's or C's
Today we'll turn our attention to the heart of KHCB's business--its lending and leasing activity.

Provision Coverage

KHCB Provisions – Amounts in Millions of BHD

3Q16
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
FA
358.7
318.7
295.8
253.6
245.7
201.6
Provisions
17.3
13.8
13.7
16.3
16.4
18.1
% FA
4.6%
4.1%
4.4%
6.0%
6.3%
8.2%

  1. Provision percentage is calculated on gross portfolio.  Provisions/ (Net FA + Provisions). 
  2. Note:  KHCB does not calculate provisions on its Leasing Assets, but rather measures the equivalent of “credit” risk in terms of impairment to value of the asset.  This is based on the assumption that KHCB can repossess the asset from a defaulting borrower and lease it to another with no loss of principal.  But note that bank management may have more discretion in determining impairment of a LA than loan impairment with a FA.
  3. Over the period KHCB’s FA provisions have been declining as a percentage of outstanding FA.
  4. If the credit quality of the portfolio is high, then a lower provision makes sense. 
  5. If the quality appears to be less than robust (another euphemism), then perhaps the decline in provision coverage is more a matter of earnings management than credit management.  Lower provisions equal higher net income all other things being unchanged. 
Let’s dig a bit deeper to examine the credit quality of KHCB’s portfolio to see if we can form a view on which of these two is more likely the cause. 

Renegotiated Loans
  1. As we discussed in reviewing ADCB, a timely renegotiation of a loan could prevent it from becoming past due and potentially impaired.  Thus, renegotiation can be a tool to manage earnings by lowering provisions as well as to legitimately restructure loans.  
  2. As KHCB states in its 2015 AR, Note 31 Credit Risk page 61:  Exposures classified as neither past due nor impaired financing facilities include facilities renegotiated during the year amounting to BD 49,276 thousand (2014: BD 32,910 thousand) that would otherwise be past due as per their original repayment terms. Italics are AA’s. 
So what has been the trend over the 2011 to 2015 period?

KHCB Renegotiated Loans -  Millions of BHD

2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
Amount
49.3
32.9
17.5
54.4
41.2
%  LA & FA
12.7%
9.7%
6.1%
20.4%
19.3%

  1. There has been a consistent renegotiation of significant percentage of the portfolio each year, except in 2013 when KHCB took significant provisions.   
  2. Side note the portfolio increased from BHD 213 million in 2011 to BHD 360 million in 2016. A key question and one not answered by available information is how many of these renegotiations, if any, are for loans that were in the portfolio in 2011 and how many reflect newer loans?  The answer to which would provide indications on whether KHCB’s underwriting standards were or are lax or there were persistent depressed economic conditions in Bahrain.  Another question would be if the same loans have been renegotiated more than once. 
  3. On that score, if you’re reading along with AA in KHCB’s 2015 AR, a side note.  AA believes the following sentence in the Renegotiated Loans note has been misplaced.  Of the total past due facilities of BD 60,758 thousand (2014: BD 35,785 thousand) only instalments of BD 30,204 thousand (2014: BD 14,108 thousand) are past due as at 31 December 2015”.  That is, it does not refer to renegotiated loans but to all loans and is no doubt an attempt to put a good face on things.  What it does say is that roughly 50% of the payments had been missed on 2015 PDNIs and 40% in 2014.  I don’t know about you but AA isn’t comforted by that information.  That level of past dues raises serious questions why these loans are not impaired.  More on that to follow.  
From the info we do have it looks like KHCB has ongoing weakness in its portfolio.
  
In following posts, we'll look at other portfolio credit metrics to try to determine if there are other signs of weakness.

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