Thursday 17 December 2009

Dubai: Sign of Cashflow Problems at the Government Level?

Bloomberg reports that "A new law “requires government entities which enjoy financial independence as well as government companies to transfer surplus income to the government’s treasury, considering it to be public income,” according to an e-mailed statement from the ruler’s office."

Some reactions:
  1. The definition of surplus income is unclear.  Does this mean that only net income is to be transferred?  As say, opposed to cash received from the collection of receivables?  Or cash on hand? Over what period is the surplus determined?  Immediate needs?   Needs over the next 'x" months?
  2. While a prudent cashflow step, the mobilization and centralization of cashflow is also a tactic used by entities experiencing cashflow problems.  The tricky issue in such situations is reversing the cashflow when the contributing unit needs cash. 
  3. Does this co-mingling of funds belonging to "independent" government owned companies like DEWA and Investment Corporation of Dubai with sovereign government entities' funds undermine the assertion that they operate separately from the sovereign?   
  4. Or is this a revision of existing dividend policy at the commercial companies?  If so, how does that affect (a) their creditworthiness and (b) existing covenants on any debt they have?  
These questions are not only pertinent to existing lenders but to lenders contemplating an extension of  new credit.

I think that this step could well be a sign of cashflow distress at the Government.  And coming so soon  after the recent US$10 billion rescue bond from Abu Dhabi, perhaps a condition of that financing.

And therefore perhaps further support for my earlier post on the relative positions of the two Emirates.

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